Bo knows Denver's passing game woes could nix Broncos' Super Bowl chances

The Broncos are off to an excellent start this season. They are tied for the best record in the NFL (8-2) and are currently riding a seven-game win streak into a Week 11 AFC West showdown with the Super Bowl favorite Kansas City Chiefs.

However, cracks are starting to show. They just beat the Raiders 10-7 in Week 10. The same team the Chiefs beat 31-0 in Week 7. 

The Broncos are just 10th in Super Bowl odds (+1800), according to FanDuel. They are home underdogs vs. the Chiefs despite being two-and-a-half games ahead of Kansas City in the division and entering the game on a 10-game home win streak.

Unsustainable start

The oddsmakers are clearly saying the Broncos' hot start is unsustainable, so what gives? The way they've won is definitely giving off a smoke-and-mirrors vibe. The eight teams they've beaten this season have a 24-48-1 record, which ranks as the fifth-easiest strength of victory in the NFL. The only team they've beaten that is currently .500 or better is the Eagles. That was a great win on the road, but it was also kind of fluky as they outscored the Eagles 18-0 in the fourth quarter.

They've outscored teams by 66 points in the fourth quarter of their win streak and actually scored more points in the final period (86) than in the first three quarters (81) in that span. They are the second team in NFL history to start 4-0 or better through 10 games when trailing entering the fourth quarter (1999 Colts). They are 3-0 when down at least eight points in the fourth quarter this year and the rest of the league is 9-106. 

Passing game isn't Super Bowl quality

It's been an entertaining formula, but one that shouldn't be relied on going forward. Sean Payton knows it, as he addressed the slow starts on Wednesday. "It's our job to offensively put ourselves in a position of starting faster." He later added, "To go where we want to go, there has to be improvement, and certainly we understand that."

As it currently stands, the Broncos' passing game isn't good enough to win a Super Bowl (or maybe even the division). Bo Nix ranks 29th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt this season (6.1). No qualified quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl with a yards-per-attempt figure that low. Eli Manning set the floor in 2007, when he averaged 6.3 yards per attempt.

Nix ranks 30th in pass success rate this season, which looks at how the quarterback keeps the offense on schedule. Gaining 50% of the needed yards on first or second down, or converting on third or fourth down, is considered a "success". 

Nix's pass success rate is 41.3% this season. That would be the worst by a quarterback to start a Super Bowl since Peyton Manning for the Broncos in 2015, when he had nine touchdown passes on the season.

OK, but this formula has worked before, right?

That's a lot of stats pointing toward the 2015 Broncos, so we're good, right? The 2015 Broncos won the Super Bowl with the top defense in the league (in terms of defensive EPA per game) while leading the NFL in sacks. The 2025 Broncos also lead the NFL in both categories. The 2015 team overcame a season where Peyton Manning had nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions. 

Yes, in theory, the Broncos' defense is good enough to compensate for their offense. They are first in defensive EPA per game (7.4) and 19th in offensive EPA per game (0.08). That would be the biggest gap (7.48) for a Super Bowl champion since the 2015 Broncos.

2015 vs 2025 Broncos Ranks

There's still very little margin for error, though. It puts a lot of pressure on a defense that is great, but not historically great. It's not even close to the 2000 Ravens (12.9 defensive EPA per game) or the 2002 Buccaneers (11.9 in the same stat) level great. 

This is a similar team that went one-and-done in the playoffs last year, losing 31-7 vs. Josh Allen and the Bills. Denver scored on the opening drive and didn't score for the rest of the game. The Bills possessed the ball for nearly 42 minutes and had over 200 yards through the air and on the ground.

Areas where Broncos' passing game falls short

It might be comforting to know that the 2015 Broncos won with a similar formula, but I'm not counting on that formula against Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in the playoffs. The passing game needs to improve, plain and simple.

Slow starts: As Sean Payton said, slow starts are a problem. It's going to be tough for Denver to dig itself out of these holes against better competition in January. Nix is averaging 0.30 EPA per dropback in the fourth quarter and -0.07 in the first three quarters this season. It's almost as big as the gap between Josh Allen (0.22) and Dillon Gabriel (-0.18) this season. 

Inaccuracy: Nix ranks last in the NFL in catchable pass rate (81%) and 30th in off-target rate (14%) this season. And that's despite attempting 60% of his throws within five yards of the line of scrimmage (fourth-highest in the NFL). Payton is trying to give him easy completions. He leads the NFL in attempts outside the pocket, on designed rollouts and on screen passes.

No explosives: The passing game simply isn't explosive enough. Nix has the third-lowest completion rate on throws of 15+ air yards this season (32%). His average pass length on completions ranks 29th in the NFL (4.6).

Lack of weapons: It would have been nice to see the Broncos address their need at tight end or WR2 at the deadline, but they were unable to upgrade either position. Nix is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt to Courtland Sutton and 6.1 to all other wideouts or tight ends this season. Reinforcements are on the way as Marvin Mims is practicing this week after suffering a concussion in Week 8. We'll see if that helps the offense hit some much-needed big plays.

Right now, this team is like the awkward child of the Tebow mania Broncos and the 2015 Broncos. It looks like the slow starts and passing game could ultimately sink their season. I'm not counting on lightning striking twice after they beat Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady and NFL MVP winner Cam Newton on their way to the Super Bowl 50 title.