Are the Bills frauds? Breaking down Buffalo's struggles, plus the Patriots' chances to win the AFC East

When the NFL season opened, the Buffalo Bills were -260 at FanDuel to win the AFC East, the best odds of any team to win its division.

Yet just over a month into the season, it's the New England Patriots who lead the AFC East. Both New England and Buffalo are 4-2, but the Patriots hold the tiebreaker thanks to their impressive 23-20 win in Buffalo in Week 5. In Week 6, the Bills lost in prime time again, this time 24-14 to the Falcons, a day after the Patriots handled the Saints 25-19.

The Bills remain the betting favorite to win the AFC East, though they are down to -230, while the Patriots' odds have shortened from +550 before the season began to +190 currently. And while teams can only play the ones they're scheduled, it's worth noting the Bills' wins are against the Ravens (1-5), the Jets (0-6), Dolphins (1-5) and the Saints (1-5), and only the New York victory was a convinving one.

So as the Bills head into their bye week, they're not focused on the division or the playoffs or anything that far down the road. Rather, they're trying to figure out how to work their way out of the two-game slump they're in, one that has seen letdowns on offense and defense and significant health issues as well.

"Well, starting with injuries, we've got a number of guys that are banged up and came out of the game, and so that'll be important for us, hopefully getting some of those guys back, we'll see," coach Sean McDermott said after Monday night's game. "There's no guarantee on that, number one. Like I said, I appreciate the way the guys battled to the end. At the end of the day, we've got to go back now -- in addition to getting guys healthier, and we'll see how that goes -- [and] figure out things on offense, defense and special teams.

"We're going to start over and start from ground zero and figure this thing out and work our tails off to do it."

Can the Bills be fixed? Do they need to be? Just two weeks ago, this was one of two undefeated teams in the NFL. Now, as McDermott said, they have questions to answer in all three phases.

Overreactions from 'MNF': Bills wasting Josh Allen's prime? Sophomore slump for Jayden Daniels?

Jeff Kerr

What's wrong with Josh Allen?

Make no mistake: The Falcons' defense is legit. Atlanta is allowing the fewest yards per game in the NFL (253.4) and held Buffalo to 291, by far its fewest of the season. But two things can be true at once. Atlanta can have a really good defense, and Allen can play poorly.

That was the case Monday night, when Allen threw two interceptions -- he had thrown just two all year entering the game -- and was sacked four times, his most in a game since Week 1, 2023. Allen has now thrown an interception in three straight games, and the Bills, who hadn't lost the turnover battle in an NFL-record 26 straight games entering Week 5, have now lost it twice in a row.

While Allen has vastly improved his ball security, turnovers can be a thing that comes in waves for him, and perhaps this is that wave. Last year, he threw six interceptions, but five came in a four-week span in the middle of the season. Perhaps that wave is just arriving a bit earlier this year. Plus, the two Monday night came right before halftime and in desperation mode late.

The pressure might be the more pressing issue. The Falcons pressured Allen on 49% of his dropbacks, his highest rate since Week 2, 2024. Allen praised the Bills' variety of blitz looks coming in off a bye, but on multiple occasions, he took responsibility.

"I have to do better," he said. "Protections, IDs, movement in the pocket. It has to be better."

Pro Football Focus "credited" Allen for 21% of the pressures he faced, eighth-highest in the league in Week 6.

Here was a big one: Two Falcons fly in untouched. If Allen gets his vision to his left, he sees a wide-open Khalil Shakir. It's easy for me to click pause on a replay while sitting at my desk, of course, but this is one he'll want back.

Allen's unease in the pocket has led to some poor outcomes, too. Allen produced a paltry -0.14 expected points added per play outside the pocket, his worst since Week 4, 2024, and over the past couple of weeks, he has bailed from some pockets early.

"It doesn't need to be that hard all the time, where [Josh Allen]'s having to run out of the pocket," McDermott said. "I thought at times we picked up the pressure, and then at other times it was the pocket was getting affected early. So, the rush and cover, as you know, we talk a lot about that. It was disrupting our offense too early in the game."

Again, Allen can have these streaks. His superpower abilities can also make things harder than they need to be. Of all of Buffalo's issues, Allen's are by far the least worrying.

Do the Bills need to trade for a wide receiver?

Buffalo was without Dalton Kincaid (oblique) and Curtis Samuel (neck/ribs) in Week 6 and lost Josh Palmer (ankle) during the game. When McDermott talks health, he's likely focusing significantly on those guys.

After a monster Week 1, Keon Coleman is yet to top four catches or 45 yards. He's a big-bodied, contested-catch guy. Slot maven Shakir operates almost exclusively underneath. His 5.1 air yards per target are third-fewest among 76 qualifying wide receivers. Without Samuel and Palmer, the Bills used a lot of lanky deep threat Tyrell Shavers and journeyman Elijah Moore. Shavers caught three of five targets for 27 yards, and Moore didn't catch either of his targets.

The Bills knew they didn't have a ton of star power in their receiving room. That's how they have operated each of the past two seasons after trading away Stefon Diggs. Allen's do-it-all abilities, plus a strong offensive line and running game, hoped to cover that. Even last year, Buffalo traded for Amari Cooper, though that didn't really work out.

Could another trade be on the horizon? Perhaps, but it's not likely to be a true needle mover -- more in the range of a Cooper-like deal in all likelihood.

Really, getting Kincaid back would be key. Yes, it's precarious to depend on an oft-injured, inconsistent tight end, but Allen has a 156.1(!) passer rating when targeting Kincaid: 20 for 24 for 287 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Kincaid's presence as a downfield threat who can lineup inside and outside completely changes the complexion of Buffalo's offense.

Rush defense in shambles

Recent Bills teams haven't had particularly good rushing defenses, but they've never been this bad: 5.8 yards per carry allowed is worst in the NFL this year.

Buffalo gave up 238 yards rushing to the Ravens in Week 1, 189 to the Saints in Week 4 and 210 to the Falcons in Week 6. They've been unable to stop the bruisers (Derrick Henry), the gliders (Bijan Robinson), the shifty ones (Alvin Kamara) and the quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and even Spencer Rattler).

In Week 6, the Bills had neither linebacker Matt Milano nor defensive lineman DaQuan Jones, who hurt his calf in warmups. Still, even when those two have been on the field, run defense has been a major issue. McDermott addressed the tackling issues -- Buffalo is tied for PFF's second-worst tackling grade -- but there aren't easy fixes here. Milano isn't the All-Pro Milano of a few years ago. Safties Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp both struggle in the run game; fittingly, Robinson ran through a Bishop tackle attempt on the biggest play of the night.

The Bills also haven't helped themselves with penalties: 30 in the past three weeks, second in the NFL. Monday, that featured five defensive penalties, including three offside/encroachment flags. One nullified a Robinson fumble on the first play of the game.

Effective defenses either create havoc (turnovers, negative plays) or play consistently down-to-down. Right now, the Bills are doing neither.

"We need to tackle better," Joey Bosa said. "We need to get the ball off of them. We need turnovers. It's not good for defense. Penalties hurt us. They maybe were aggressive penalties, whatever. We just have to be smarter."

Is it the Patriots' time to win the AFC East?

The Bills have won the division five straight years. It's far, far too early to write them off. For all the stretches of struggles has has, Allen can get unstoppable for other stretches. Buffalo will get healthier after the bye and then get the Panthers and Dolphins as two of their next three opponents. Four of their final five games are against either teams really struggling -- the Bengals, Browns and Jets -- or the Patriots themselves, a perfect opportunity for revenge late in the season. And who knows what the fifth team in that group, the Eagles, will look like by then? They, like the Bills were 4-0 and are now 4-2.

Since their AFC East dynasty began in 2020, the Bills are an NFL-best 18-3 in December. Their best ball is likely ahead of them, and Allen helped put everything in perspective.

"I think we were 3-2 last year," he said. "Sitting at 4-2 going into a bye week. At any point you can have a winning season almost halfway through the year -- I know we're not quite halfway, but I think I'll take those odds."