Agent's Take: How will Colts handle contract decisions regarding stars Jonathan Taylor and Quenton Nelson?

The Indianapolis Colts have some unfinished financial business. Contract-extension decisions need to be made on offensive guard Quenton Nelson and running back Jonathan Taylor, arguably the best two players on the team. Both players are in a contract year. 

The four-year, $80 million contract extension Nelson signed during the 2022 preseason made him the NFL's first $20 million-per-year interior offensive lineman. Nelson is scheduled to make $18 million, which includes a $2 million fifth day of the league year roster bonus, on a $24.2 million salary cap number in 2026.

Taylor received a four-year, $42 million extension during the early part of the 2023 regular season after acrimonious negotiations in which he requested a trade. The $14 million-per-year deal began the reversal of an economic downturn with running backs. Taylor has a $13 million salary with a $15.562 million cap number this year.

The Colts may have sticker shock in any efforts to re-sign Nelson and Taylor. Unless one of them gets a contract extension, a choice will need to be made with a franchise tag next offseason.

Nelson has been named to the Pro Bowl in each of his eight NFL seasons. He earned All-Pro honors for a sixth time in 2025.

It wouldn't be surprising for Nelson, who is 30, to insist on becoming the league's highest-paid interior offensive lineman again considering he isn't showing any signs of slowing down. Offensive guards can continue to play at an extremely high level into their mid-30s. 

This type of contract demand could be problematic for the Colts given offensive line developments in free agency. Tyler Linderbaum not only became the NFL's highest-paid center, but also interior offensive lineman when he signed a three-year, $81 million contract, averaging $27 million per year, with the Las Vegas Raiders in March.

Typically, an offensive guard sets the interior offensive lineman pay scale. Prior to Linderbaum signing, the last time a center was the NFL's highest-paid interior offensive lineman was in 2015. Mike Pouncey's five-year extension with the Miami Dolphins averaged $8.95 million per year. Logan Mankins led offensive guards at $8.5 million per year. He signed a six-year, $51 million contract with the New England Patriots in 2011. It should be noted that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers released offensive guard Carl Nicks from the five-year, $47.5 million deal, averaging $9.5 million per year, he signed during 2012 free agency in August 2014.

For example, Nelson would be resetting the offensive guard market by 14.58% with a $27.5 million-per-year deal since Tyler Smith is the current standard. Smith received a four-year, $96 million extension, averaging $24 million per year, from the Dallas Cowboys last September shortly after the 2025 regular season started.

Nelson reset the market by a bigger margin when he signed his current contract. He got 21.21% more than the existing offensive guard salary benchmark, which was Brandon Scherff at $16.5 million per year. That type of increase would put Nelson in the $29 million-per-year neighborhood.

Taylor a tag candidate?

Winning the 2025 rushing title seemed like a certainty for Taylor until his production nosedived during the latter part of the season after quarterback Daniel Jones tore his right Achilles in a Week 14 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Opposing teams stacked the box against Taylor without Jones in the lineup. Taylor finished third in the NFL with 1,585 rushing yards last season. He led the league with 20 total touchdowns (18 rushing and two receiving) and 323 carries.

Taylor was selected to the Pro Bowl for the third time in his six NFL seasons. He also was named a first-team All-Pro by The Sporting News, which is one of the three media outlets approved in the NFL collective bargaining agreement for honors incentives.

Taylor probably is going to think that his place in the running back-salary hierarchy shouldn't be any lower in a new deal than in 2023 when he signed his current contract. Whether Taylor was the NFL's second- or third-highest-paid running back is a matter of interpretation. Alvin Kamara's $15 million-per-year extension with the New Orleans Saints was a little misleading. A fifth new contract year for $25 million was included for cosmetic purposes to artificially inflate Kamara's average yearly salary. The deal averaged $12.5 million per year through the first four new years.

The latest data point in the running market is the four-year, $64 million extension De'Von Achane just signed with the Dolphins. There are $32 million in guarantees and incentives make the deal worth as much as $68 million.

At $16 million per year, Achane is the league's third-highest-paid running back. Christian McCaffrey is second with the two-year, $38 million extension, averaging $19 million per year, he received from the San Francisco 49ers in 2024. 

Taylor could try to justify his position by adjusting his existing deal for salary cap inflation. The salary cap has gone from $224.8 million in 2023 to $301.2 million currently, which is a 33.99% increase. In a 2026 salary cap environment, Taylor's deal averages just over $18.75 million per year. 

Taylor was coming off an injury-plagued 2022 season in which he had a then-career-low 861 rushing yards while dealing with a terrible economic climate for running backs. The financial outlook for running backs has improved dramatically since Taylor signed in 2023.

The Colts might be reluctant to pay Taylor top dollar for an extended period of time -- although he is 27 -- because of the rate he is accumulating mileage. He has the NFL's third-most carries over the last two seasons with 625. 

Taylor's 1,551 carries in his six NFL seasons are the most among the NFL's highest-paid running backs at a similar stage in their respective careers. Eight-year NFL veteran Saquon Barkley, who is the league's highest-paid running back with his two-year, $41.2 million extension, averaging $20.6 million per year, from the Philadelphia Eagles in 2025, had 1,201 carries. McCaffrey, who has played nine seasons, had carried the ball 1,025 times. Derrick Henry, who is entering his 11th season, is the NFL's fourth-highest-paid running back with the two-year, $30 million extension, averaging $15 million per year, he received from the Baltimore Ravens last offseason. He is the closest with 1,401 carries in his first six seasons. 

The 120% of prior year's salary provisions will be applicable to both Nelson and Taylor for a 2027 franchise tag. Since Nelson's 2026 cap number is $24.02 million, it will be $29.04 million to put a franchise tag on him. Taylor's tag number will be $18,674,400 given his $15.562 million 2026 cap number. The figures from the franchise tag formula won't this high next year considering the current offensive line and running back costs are $25.773 million and $14.293 million, respectively.

Taylor should have around 1,850 career carries with a healthy 2026 season. Any concerns about diminishing returns with continued heavy usage would make Taylor the more logical franchise tag candidate.