2026 NFL Draft roundtable: How good can Arch Manning be, who will be the No. 1 overall pick, more predictions

The 2026 NFL Draft is roughly eight months away, and a lot will change between now and then. Similar to a time capsule, CBS Sports' NFL Draft analysts provided answers to questions fans may have as the college football and NFL seasons begin -- with the intent to see how those responses age over the course of the season. 

A year ago, Cameron Ward was not the presumptive choice at No. 1 overall and Carson Beck was still being lauded. It is not to say nothing is known at this stage of the process, however. Boise State's Ashton Jeanty had been RB1 and occupied a spot in way-too-early mock drafts. 

Without further ado, here is what Ryan Wilson, Mike Renner and I think we know in late August.

1. Who will end up as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?

Ryan Wilson: QB Garrett Nussmeier, LSU. "Let's assume Arch returns to Texas because otherwise this is a one-word answer. Peter Woods is the No. 1 player on my preseason big board, but because of quarterback value, and the flashes we saw from him last season, especially earlier in the year, I'll go with LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. He's a coach's son, and that's as clear as day when you watch him play. He is undersized by prototypical first-round quarterback standards, but I've talked to teams who don't care when it comes to Nuss. If he can minimize the silly mistakes, he has a good chance to be the first player taken."

Mike Renner: QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana. "I went with Indiana transfer Fernando Mendoza in my latest mock, so I'll stick with that until games are played. He's got a big arm and an easily translatable NFL game. For him to play as well as he did given his supporting cast was encouraging."

Josh Edwards: QB LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina. "The assumption is that Texas' Arch Manning will return to school. Consistency will be key for each of the top quarterback prospects. Sellers has the highest ceiling because of his size, arm strength and athleticism. If he can become a more efficient passer, then his claim to be the No. 1 overall selection will be validated."

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Mike Renner

2. Who is the under-the-radar QB everyone will be talking about entering draft season?

Wilson: Fernando Mendoza, Indiana. "I'm not sure how under-the-radar Fernando Mendoza is at this point -- Ran Carthon and I have spent a non-trivial amount of time talking him up on "With the First Pick." He's currently my QB2 behind only Nussmeier (again, assuming Arch doesn't declare). Mendoza looks the part physically, and he consistently excelled behind a suspect offensive line at Cal. Now that he's at Indiana, it's hard for me to envision him not having success -- to the point that he could not only solidify himself as a first-round pick, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he found his way into the top 10."

Renner: John Mateer, Oklahoma. "I think John Mateer could skyrocket up boards this year at Oklahoma. He sat two years at Washington State behind Cameron Ward before taking over last year and oh my can he spin it. The man has the best arm talent in the class for my money and really settled down as the season wore on. If he takes a leap, he has sky-high potential."

Edwards: Byrum Brown, USF. "Several quarterbacks have already been mentioned as potential top-50 overall prospects, so options are a bit limited. The three that came to mind were TCU's Josh Hoover, Oklahoma's John Mateer and Brown. The latter is an imposing presence at 6-foot-3 and 231 pounds, and he has plus mobility. He missed most of the 2024 season with an injury and accuracy has been a concern, but he is reportedly healthy for the upcoming season."

3. What is Arch Manning's ceiling as an NFL draft prospect? What is his floor?

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Wilson: "This sounds like hyperbole because, fair or not, it feels like every conversation about Arch is hyperbolic because we've barely seen him play. But in talking to people that have followed him closely since high school, he might be better as advertised as a leader, and that's before you get to the things we've seen him do on the field in limited reps.

The ceiling feels like a more athletic version of uncle Peyton. The floor feels no lower than uncle Eli, and I say that with the understanding that Eli is a two-time Super Bowl winner and future Pro Football Hall of Famer. Put another way: If I can't envision Fernando Mendoza struggling this season for the Hoosiers, I feel even stronger about Arch's success, both at Texas and eventually the NFL."

Renner: "I think he could easily be seen in the same light as Trevor Lawrence was coming out. Basically a can't-miss quarterback who's worst outcome in the NFL is still a franchise quarterback. The floor to me is still so high given his tools and bloodlines. I'd be very surprised if he's not ultimately a top 5 pick."

Edwards: "When Trevor Lawrence entered the draft, he was viewed as a talent capable of becoming one of the league's best. I recently heard a different perspective that resonated with me; there should have been confidence in Lawrence's floor and viability as a starting quarterback rather than his ceiling. In that regard, Manning is similar. His floor is competent starting quarterback and his ceiling is top eight in the league."

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Mike Renner

4. Who is the prospect you are most excited to watch?

Wilson: LB Suntarine Perkins, Ole Miss. "I might be Suntarine Perkins' biggest fan. He's just 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds, but he played primarily as an edge rusher for Ole Miss last season. He finished the 2024 season with 9.0 sacks, 31 hurries and 21 run stops and played the position like he was 6-foot-4, 250 pounds. Yes, I know: you can't be an NFL edge rusher at 210 pounds. But Perkins played off-ball linebacker in high school, and that will almost certainly have to be his NFL future, perhaps with some designated-pass-rush responsibilities."

Renner: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame. "I'm going to take quarterbacks out of it and say Jeremiyah Love. I'm admittedly extremely biased here as a Notre Dame fan, but he could be the closest thing the college game has seen to Reggie Bush since his Heisman year*. Just an insanely dynamic athlete."

Edwards: OT Caleb Lomu, Utah. "Over the course of the pre-draft process, we all grow attachments to certain players, and Lomu is one in whom I am emotionally invested. He has the athletic capability, as well as an ideal frame into which he can grow to become a high-end NFL tackle."

5. Who is the prospect with the most to gain?

Wilson: QB Drew Allar, Penn State. "He looks the part but still hasn't yet put it all together. We've seen flashes, for sure, but we've also seen the decisions that give us enough pause to reconsider the idea of making him a top 15 selection. He can answer a lot of those questions this fall because he has the size, arm strength and athleticism to be a franchise QB; he just has to show he can put it all together. Carthon had some interesting thoughts on who Allar is and how that informs who he can become at the next level:

Renner: "There's always a bunch of different ways you could take a question like this. I'll answer with this: In my preseason top-50, I had six different players who weren't even starters last season: Texas quarterback Arch Manning, Texas offensive tackle Trevor Goosby, Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq, Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey, Notre Dame edge rusher Boubacar Traore and Iowa center Kade Pieper. They all have the most to gain in bigger roles this fall."

Edwards: LB Harold Perkins Jr., LSU. "Two years ago, Perkins was being discussed as a likely first-round pick. Through role changes, coordinator changes and a significant injury, Perkins' stock has fallen. If he can prove he is healthy over the course of the season and show glimpses of his potential, then NFL teams will move him up the board yet again."

6. What is the strongest position in the draft?

Wilson: Offensive tackle and edge rusher. "If you're looking for offensive linemen and edge rushers, this is the draft for you. I had eight offensive linemen and nine pass rusher in my preseason top 50. Quarterback is also deep -- especially compared to the 2025 class -- but as we sit here, it won't approach what we saw in 2024, when six QBs went in the first 12 picks. That said, in addition to Nussmeier, Mendoza and Allar, Cade Klubnik and LaNorris Sellers could be first-rounders, along with a handful of others, including a lot of folks' QB1 heading into last season: Carson Beck."

Renner: Offensive tackle. "The offensive tackle class looks like it will have at least five first-rounders at this point in time, and I could see it getting up to seven when all is said and done. It won't quite be the 2024 class that broke the record for first-rounders, but it could be close."

Edwards: Offensive tackle. "Edge rusher is the only position that could challenge offensive tackle in terms of depth. However, I get more excited about the top of the offensive tackle class right now. There are a lot of young players in both conversations, so that belief could shift by season's end." 

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Ryan Wilson

7. Which NFL team will hold the rights to the No. 1 overall pick?

Wilson: The Saints. "Vegas says the Saints, Browns and Jets, in that order, are the favorites for the No. 1 overall pick. The Saints feel like the easy choice, in part because their quarterback situation is unsettled, in part because they have questions up and down the roster. There's also the added intrigue of New Orleans holding that pick and what that might mean for Arch (his family is from New Orleans and his grandfather played for the Saints) or Nuss (his dad, Doug Nussmeier, played QB in the NFL and is currently the Saints offensive coordinator)."

Renner: The Dolphins. "The Dolphins look like such a house of cards right now to me. With a horrendous secondary, a quarterback with serious injury issues and a combustible locker room, the Dolphins could very easily bottom out this year."

Edwards: The Saints. "Cleveland and New Orleans have the worst quarterback situations in the league, but the former has a better overall roster."

8. Who will win the College Football Playoff National Championship? And who will win the Super Bowl?

Wilson: Texas and the Texans. "It's hard to pass on the Texas Longhorns because of what we all expect from the quarterback position. But running back CJ Baxter has a chance to be special (like, first-round special), and there are dudes on both sides of the ball who we'll be talking a lot about over the next seven months.

"Let's get crazy with the Super Bowl pick: The Eagles, Chiefs, Bills or Ravens feel like obvious choices, but I'm going with the Texans. The offensive line has to take a leap, but I expect C.J. Stroud to be better in Year 3 (by the way, he's led the team to 10-7 records and playoff wins in his first two seasons; last year was a hot mess at times because the offensive line was so inconsistent), the wide receiver room has a chance to be special, and the defense could be one of the best units in the league."

Renner: Texas and the Packers. "I think this is Texas' year. They have elite prospects at pretty much every major position (even if some are underclassmen), and I think Arch will comfortably be the best quarterback amongst the contenders in college football.

"I will be picking the Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl because I think adding Micah Parsons to that roster is that big of a game-changer. Their two biggest issues from last year -- a reliable pass-catcher and a feared pass-rusher -- have seemingly been solved this offseason."

Edwards: Texas and the Bills. "A piece of me wanted to predict Penn State, but there is more confidence in Steve Sarkisian and Arch Manning getting the job done. Both programs have invested a lot into 2025. 

"As for the Super Bowl, this is the year that Buffalo finally gets up and over the mountain."