Resetting the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade market: Why 18 teams are plausible suitors

When the Milwaukee Bucks considered offers for Giannis Antetokounmpo at the trade deadline, discussions seemed to center around four teams. Reports have suggested that the New York Knicks are the team Antetokounmpo is most interested in playing for. The Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat are frequent star chasers trapped in the middle of the standings who went hard after Antetokounmpo as an all-in gambit. And the Minnesota Timberwolves became inevitable sleeper willing to break up its existing core for the sake of uniting Antetokounmpo with another superstar in Anthony Edwards.

Other teams reportedly called, but a trade of that magnitude is so difficult to execute in-season that the field was inevitably going to be relatively small. Some teams don't have the contracts to swing for a max player in February. Others are hamstrung by an apron. Some just don't feel ready to tear down their rosters on the fly.

But everything changes in the offseason, when the apron slate is wiped clean, roster sizes are expanded and everyone knows the draft order. The offseason has arrived for the Bucks. Their season ended on Sunday with their 50th loss and Doc Rivers stepping down as head coach.

As we speak, there are surely 29 teams gaming out scenarios in which they may or may not decide to chase Antetokounmpo, a two-time MVP. Some of them will eventually realize they have no realistic hope of acquiring him. Others will decide willingly to sit the sweepstakes out.

Antetokounmpo spoke with The Athletic on Sunday. He said he didn't know whether or not he had already played his last game for Milwaukee. "It's not up to me anymore," he said. Antetokounmpo added that he is unsure on whether or not he'd sign an extension with the Bucks if it's offered.

"Until we get to October, it's eight months, seven months," he said. "It's a long time. But somebody has to offer you that for you to sign. I haven't been offered an extension. So, if that is on the table, then I will try to make the best decision for me and family. But if it's not on the table, then I have to focus on how can I prove my worth and get on the floor and do what I do."

So with Milwaukee's season wrapped up, let's reset the Antetokounmpo market. 

Who are the teams who could seriously mull runs at Giannis? What would need to happen for their pursuits to be viable? Who is waiting on playoff or lottery results? Who needs to decide whether or not they're willing to part with a specific, core player? Below are the 18 teams that are, on any realistic level, plausible suitors for Antetokounmpo. They are sorted into five groups. In the weeks and months to come, this field will inevitably whittle down. The final number will be smaller than this. Think of this as setting the stage for what's to come.

Probably prepared to go all in

• Golden State Warriors
• Miami Heat
• Minnesota Timberwolves

The Warriors are known to have offered their four available first-round picks for Giannis at the deadline. That figure jumps to five at the draft, and if Golden State's Play-In Tournament ends in a loss as expected, one of those picks will start the lottery from the No. 11 slot. The offer, all told, looks slightly more appealing now than it did in February. The same can broadly be said for Miami, who is also a play-in team and could therefore be in the lottery. The Heat go from two tradable first-rounders to four, and the players they dangled at the deadline, most notably Kel'El Ware and Tyler Herro, are obviously still available.

Barring lottery luck, neither is going to be at the top of the Milwaukee's list of suitors. Remember, future first-round picks look a bit less valuable as trade assets in light of the expected changes to the lottery. While there's more variance baked into those picks, the best picks (essentially, the ones you'd be betting on deep in the future when Antetokounmpo is old or retired) will no longer have especially high odds at jumping to the top of the draft. But as far as fallbacks go, the Bucks could do worse. The Heat are organizationally opposed to tanking. They've spent years waiting on a proven star to launch them back into contention. The Warriors need someone to give Stephen Curry a chance to contend at the end of his career. Aside from their franchise players (Curry for Golden State, Bam Adebayo for Miami), both teams figure to be willing to offer anything Milwaukee wants.

Minnesota's situation isn't as obviously desperate, but Tim Connelly has never needed obvious desperation to act. He traded Karl-Anthony Towns off of a trip to the Western Conference finals. He's proactive, and Minnesota, in all likelihood, is not making it back to the Western Conference finals this year. The Timberwolves need a talent infusion if they're going to keep up with the Spurs and Thunder in the Western Conference arms race. Antetokounmpo is the best player available.

This would not be a two-team trade. It wouldn't be a three-team trade, either. The Timberwolves would have to trade off a number of veterans for value and then send that value to Milwaukee. Jaden McDaniels would be a good start. He's easily capable of netting multiple first-round picks. Could they still find good offers for Julius Randle or Rudy Gobert? They'd likely have to. Minnesota's 2033 first-round pick and Joan Beringer are nice sweeteners, but the Wolves are still a ways off here. Never rule Connelly out from making a monster move, but he'll have his work cut out for him here.

Big city dreams

• New York Knicks
• Los Angeles Lakers
• Brooklyn Nets
• Los Angeles Clippers

The reporting thus far has indicated that New York is Antetokounmpo's preferred destination. The problem? The Knicks have very little to trade. OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges might make sense for winners, but that's not where the Bucks will be in the near future. New York can trade its 2026 and 2033 first-round picks, but neither is some golden-ticket asset. We learned around the deadline that interest in Karl-Anthony Towns is tepid.

So how do the Knicks get Giannis? He'd have to stick his thumb on the scale. If he told the rest of the league "I will only re-sign with the Knicks," he could scare away certain suitors. This is where the Lakers come in. They have the cap space to sign Antetokounmpo outright as a 2027 free agent, making them the ideal boogeyman here to give that Knicks threat weight. He may not be able to go to New York in free agency, but if he tells undesirable suitors that he's bolting for Luka Dončić and the Lakers, they'd likely buy it. The Lakers are similarly asset-starved. They'll have three meh first-round picks to offer, but would need Austin Reaves to agree to a sign-and-trade to get Milwaukee's attention. What is his motivation to do so if he can find similarly lucrative offers elsewhere in free agency?

Neither the Lakers nor the Knicks are winning a bidding war. Rarely do big-market teams need to make the best offer to secure the superstar on an expiring deal. Their place in this bidding depends on how much pressure Antetokounmpo is willing to apply. Even then, it's no slam dunk. Besides, the Knicks have a postseason to play out first. Ownership expects to reach the Finals. If the Knicks win the East, we table all of this and New York likely runs this team back. If not? Toss the Knicks into the all-in category, and they, like Minnesota, would have to go hunting for a third and probably fourth team.

If Antetokounmpo is uniform-agnostic within those two big cities? The local B-teams are suddenly interesting sleepers. The Clippers would need lottery luck. If they collect the No. 5 pick from the Pacers, they can suddenly construct a package built around that pick, two more of their own picks, another Pacers pick and a signed-and-traded Bennedict Mathurin. Probably not the best bid, but likely above, say, Golden State or Miami's offers. This relies on a favorable outcome to the Aspiration investigation, but perhaps Antetokounmpo would be intrigued by the idea of playing with Darius Garland and Kawhi Leonard, with the idea that Leonard could eventually be replaced by a different free agent.

Brooklyn has been in the background of the Giannis proceedings for some time now. At one point they reportedly hoped to use Mikal Bridges as a sidekick for Antetokounmpo. Those dreams evaporated, but the five first-round picks Brooklyn got for Bridges will help here. Giannis wouldn't come alone. The Nets would have to use their deep war chest of assets to land another star to entice him into extending. They've done so before, though, and with all of those Knicks picks coming as well as a high lottery choice in this draft, the Nets have the assets to get Antetokounmpo and someone else of note if they want.

Are they willing to offer ______?

• Cleveland Cavaliers
• Philadelphia 76ers
• Orlando Magic

ESPN's Ramona Shelburne specifically cited Evan Mobley and VJ Edgecombe as players Milwaukee sought in February trade talks for Antetokounmpo. A deal for Paolo Banchero would have been impractical at the time -- he's still technically on his rookie deal, so matching money would have been a problem -- but becomes far easier in the offseason, and he fits the same vein as a young building block for Milwaukee.

Philadelphia seems almost certain not to offer Edgecombe. They have enough picks to get into the Miami-Golden State offer tier without him, but he's their ticket to winning a bidding war. He's just not one they're likely to spend. This team is already banking on the health of Joel Embiid. Do they really want to take on another major health risk in Antetokounmpo? Probably not, unless ownership is dissatisfied enough with this season to keep the current brain trust intact with some sort of Finals-or-bust mandate for next season that doesn't appear all that likely. Never say never where Daryl Morey is concerned, but it wouldn't be responsible to trade Edgecombe for someone 11 years older.

You know who just traded for someone a decade older than their young star? The Cavaliers, who swapped Darius Garland for James Harden. There appears to be serious win-now pressure here, especially since Donovan Mitchell can become a free agent in 2027. The Cavaliers are where the Knicks are. This all goes away if they make the Finals. If they don't, a Mobley swap becomes realistic. Would Antetokounmpo want to go to Cleveland? Would LeBron James returning help convince him? Would Cleveland be more inclined to trade for Antetokounmpo with or without James? They're trickier fits than James and Mobley would be. There are too many variables to make any strong predictions here, but another second-round exit likely won't be taken quietly in Cleveland. If they don't think they can make the Finals with Mobley next year, they'll at least consider life without him.

There's no "maybe" about Orlando's situation. As currently constructed, the Magic are not a Finals team. They spent four first-round picks on Desmond Bane hoping they would be. Instead, they'll go out no later than the first round. It seems like a coaching change is coming. Though the Magic have a year to plan for it, Anthony Black's upcoming rookie extension could push them deep into the second apron. If Orlando wants to consolidate for financial reasons, or if it simply doesn't trust the Banchero-Franz Wagner fit, an all-in swap for Giannis makes some sense. Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman was the assistant general manager in Milwaukee through the end of the 2012-13 season, the period in which the Bucks would have been scouting Antetokounmpo.

If Giannis is open-minded...

• Charlotte Hornets
• Portland Trail Blazers
• Toronto Raptors
• Atlanta Hawks

These are the sorts of teams you'd expect Antetokounmpo to play the "I'm leaving in a year" card against. Non-glamour markets. Non-immediate championship contenders. Any of them could make sense if you squint.

The Hornets have a draft pick surplus and the most dangerous three-headed 3-point shooting monster in the NBA. Nobody's building a wall against a team with LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller. Antetokounmpo would be able to attack the rim with impunity, and his defense would be a welcome addition to this small team.

The Hawks and Raptors don't have such clean stylistic cohesion. They both have the chips to make a deal—even without core forwards Jalen Johnson and Scottie Barnes (who have both played themselves out of any realistic trade talks this season despite Rich Paul's suggestions). The Raptors have all of their picks, Brandon Ingram and Collin Murray-Boyles to trade. The Hawks have a lottery pick coming from Milwaukee or New Orleans, another one next year (though it's the lesser of those two teams), and a handful of interesting veterans.

And then there's Portland. The Blazers have a new owner coming in. They may have a new coach, too. Former Antetokounmpo teammates Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday are in place. Portland controls Milwaukee's first-round picks between 2028 and 2030, though again, those are potentially less valuable under a new lottery format that discourages tanking. Those picks are a viable centerpiece. Giving them up without a long-term commitment from Antetokounmpo would be irresponsible.

A rental sleeper always sneaks into the mix for players of this magnitude. These are the teams that could fit that description. Charlotte and Atlanta could easily decide their futures are too bright as is for a swing on someone this old. Portland and Toronto probably need to take the risk if they can secure an extension.

More of a 'want' than a 'need'

• Boston Celtics
• San Antonio Spurs
• Detroit Pistons
• Houston Rockets

This group contains a No. 1 seed, two No. 2 seeds and a No. 5 seed that played this year without its starting point guard. Three of them are plausible 2026 champions as is. Houston is not, but probably has more trade ammunition than any of the others when you factor in not only youth and draft capital, but the sheer fact that nobody there has established himself as truly untouchable yet.

The Athletic reported last week that the Celtics are "known to be interested" in Antetokounmpo. He did not exactly specify how they'd go about acquiring him, though purely from a salary perspective, a deal would almost have to be built around Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum. Boston has resisted overtures about breaking up their duo for basically their entire careers. They won a championship together and could easily do so again this season. It's hard to imagine what sequence of events could transpire this postseason that would compel them to trade one of them -- or if this season might have changed which one they'd prefer to keep -- but the reporting has to at least land them on a list like this. If they offer Tatum or Brown, they'll have a seat at the table.

The Spurs felt like an obvious suitor a year ago. Have they outgrown any need for a trade of this magnitude to fast-forward into contention? The answer is almost certainly yes, and they can put an exclamation point on that statement in the playoffs. If nothing else, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are off of the table now. If there's a deal to be made here, it will have to be built around other young players, San Antonio's remaining bounty of picks, and De'Aaron Fox -- a potentially elegant solution to their guard glut. Don't count this as likely unless the Spurs completely flame out in the playoffs.

The Pistons are probably a bit more open to a major talent infusion. They don't have an obvious secondary scorer to pair with Cade Cunningham. But do they have the need for what Antetokounmpo does specifically? They're already a dominant paint and transition team. It seems likelier that Detroit targets a perimeter player as its eventual star target, but if the Pistons are interested in doubling down on their strengths and identity, Antetokounmpo is certainly a way to do that.

The star move is a less a matter of "if" than "when" for the Rockets. They have a mountain of assets. Draft picks from Phoenix, Brooklyn and Dallas are coming. Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun both look good enough to support a superstar but not promising enough to be one. Kevin Durant is here for now. He's probably past the point of being good enough to lead a champion. The question here is whether the Rockets are desperate enough to jump the gun now for someone who explicitly doesn't fit their team or if they're comfortable waiting for someone who would. The meticulous nature of their rebuild suggests they'll wait, but this season hasn't gone as planned with Durant, and merely having him creates a title window with Antetokounmpo if Houston were to, say, trade Sengun for him. It's not likely, but it's not as unthinkable as it felt last summer.