Which surprise MLB contender should we believe in? Blue Jays, Brewers and more teams beating the odds

If we went back to spring training and showed ourselves what the standings would look like just a few days before Labor Day weekend, which teams would surprise, in a positive way, the most? And of these surprise teams, which are the strongest bets to make a deep postseason run?

We can lean on the preseason gambling win totals (a.k.a. over/unders) to help us see which teams are truly surprising the general public so far. Here are four teams most exceeding preseason expectations. All odds via DraftKings.

Milwaukee Brewers (+850 to win World Series)

Preseason wins over/under: 83.5
Current win pace: 101

Though the Brewers won the NL Central last season, they still qualify here thanks to how aggressively they're blowing their projection out of the water. They won 93 games last season, lost Willy Adames to free agency and traded closer Devin Williams and yet here they are, on pace for the best Brewers season of all time. 

I have already laid out why there's good reason to believe the Brewers can make a deep playoff run this season and nothing has changed since.

Detroit Tigers (+290 to win AL)

Preseason wins over/under: 83.5
Current win pace: 94

The Tigers made a surprise playoff run last season with a late surge after selling at the trade deadline. The question was, could they play like that over the course of 162? It sure looks like the answer is going to be a resounding yes. With the Royals and Guardians right in the same win range as the Tigers and the Twins as the betting favorite here before Opening Day, it seems public opinion was that the AL Central would be a four-team race. 

Instead, the Tigers have a double-digit division lead and will have this thing sewn up with something like two weeks to play. They went through an awful stretch of losing in mid-July, dropping 12 of 13, but since then have righted the ship and shown they are for real.

The Tigers are formidable, there's no doubting that, but rotation injuries have them a little less sturdy looking than two other teams on this list. The losses of Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe for the season were tough blows. Jack Flaherty being pretty terrible of late also hurts. The Tigers added Chris Paddack and Charlie Morton in front of the trade deadline, but they are both wild cards (especially due to age with the 41-year-old Morton). Tarik Skubal is capable of carrying a pitching staff (picture Corey Kluber with Cleveland in 2016 as an example) and the Tigers will piece it together behind him with Casey Mize and some combination of Morton, Paddack and Flaherty. We also know from last season that the organization doesn't mind being creative with the bullpen, too.

That bullpen has shown some cracks, but maybe things are getting settled. The 3.06 bullpen ERA in August is the second-best in baseball. 

Offensively, the Tigers are powerful but inconsistent. The have a star centerpiece in Riley Greene, a middle-of-the-order power threat in Spencer Torkelson and plenty of others to fill out the lineup.

I still have rotation concerns, but I believe the Tigers have what it takes to make a deep postseason run. I'd rank them below the Brewers and also behind the ... 

Toronto Blue Jays (+380 to win AL)

Preseason wins over/under: 78.5
Current win pace: 94 

The Blue Jays were expected to come in last place in the AL East and instead they have a four-game lead with less than five weeks to play. Only three AL teams (Angels, Athletics, White Sox) had lower over/unders heading into the season and it would take an epic collapse for them to miss the playoffs. Remember, they were once 26-28. The Jays have just been off-the-charts awesome since late May.

The offense is among the best in baseball. The Jays are sixth in runs scored, first in batting average, first in on-base percentage and fifth in slugging percentage. They have a superstar in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a star in Bo Bichette, a grizzled playoff veteran having a renaissance season in George Springer and such a strong supporting cast with the likes of Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement having all provided significant contributions throughout the season, especially since late May. Since May 28, they are averaging 5.7 runs per game, which is the most in the majors. 

The rotation is very interesting. Shane Bieber looked outstanding in his return from Tommy John surgery. Max Scherzer has been mostly very good the last several weeks. Kevin Gausman has been an ace in the past while José Berríos was once a frontline starter. Eric Lauer has a 2.76 ERA this season. There's a ton of volatility in there due to Bieber only having one post-TJ start in the majors under his belt, Scherzer's age and injury history and the diminished abilities of Gausman and Berríos. The best versions of everyone here, though, would be a top-shelf playoff rotation. 

That said, the bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball since the All-Star break, including closer Jeff Hoffman and his 4.17 ERA with six blown saves. This is the concern here, but you don't need quite as deep a 'pen in the playoffs; whichever starters don't make the playoff rotation can help as well. There's a way to piece things together with just a few good relievers. 

If I had to handicap everything right now, the Blue Jays would be my top pick to come out of the American League. 

Cincinnati Reds (+550 to make the playoffs)

Preseason wins over/under: 78.5
Current win pace: 83

The Reds are easily the worst of these four teams and the chances of them making the playoffs aren't great, but they are contending. They are worth mention because it's possible, if they get in, that they could become a dangerous playoff team. We've seen some unlikely World Series runs and it all starts with the Reds in the rotation. 

How does Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo sound for a top three rotation in the playoffs? Manager Terry Francona has found a good groove with the bullpen and there are some talented pieces on offense. I think the Reds probably miss the playoffs and it's possible if they make it that they're bounced in two games, but that rotation is something that can lead an unlikely charge deep into October.