Padres surge ahead of Dodgers for first place in NL West: Four factors that could affect the division race

As recently as July 3, the Los Angeles Dodgers were sitting on a comfortable nine-game lead in the NL West. The defending World Series champs had won four straight games and 15 of their last 18 games despite having a full 13-man pitching staff on the injured list and getting something less than superstar play from Mookie Betts. The Dodgers were great. News at 11.

That nine-game division lead is gone.

San Diego passed Los Angeles and moved into first place earlier this week, and now the NL West rivals will open a weekend series at Dodger Stadium on Friday.

Dodgers vs. Padres in NL West showdown: Four things to know, prediction for weekend series at Dodger Stadium

Mike Axisa

On Tuesday night, the Dodgers got walked off by the Los Angeles Angels (LAA 7, LAD 6 in 10 innings) while the San Diego Padres took care of business against the San Francisco Giants (SD 5, SF 1).

The Padres have won eight of their last 10 and hold a one-game lead in the division. But with 41 games left to play, FanDuel still has the Dodgers (-180) as the favorite to win the NL West.  

"Now it's a new season," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said after Tuesday's loss (via MLB.com). "You look at the standings, and we just gotta play better baseball and find ways to win games."

Depending on your perspective, the highlight/lowlight of Tuesday's action was Shohei Ohtani lining into a rally-killing 6-6-3 triple play against his former team. It was the first triple play in Freeway Series history and only the eighth ever turned by the Angels.

Since opening up that nine-game lead on July 3, the Dodgers are 12-21. The Padres are 23-12 in that same time period. Only the juggernaut Milwaukee Brewers have a better record among National League teams than San Diego since then. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have fewer wins than the Pittsburgh Pirates and only one more than the Colorado Rockies since July 3.

This is the first time the Dodgers are not alone in first place since June 13 and it is the latest into a season the Padres have had at least a share of first place since Sept. 25, 2010. Jon Garland was their starting pitcher that day. Will Venable hit a home run. Miguel Tejada played short and hit third. (Who could forget the Miguel Tejeda era in San Diego?)

"A lot of games to go," Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill said after Tuesday's win (via MLB.com). "There's nothing we can control over there. We're all in the moment here."

The Padres made the Dodgers sweat for the NL West title last year. They were only two games back as late as Game 157. San Diego could not complete that comeback and, of course, they blew a 2-1 lead over Los Angeles in the NLDS. This year, the Padres want to finish the job and win their first division title since 2006. Here's what you need to know about the NL West race.

1. Both teams are getting healthy

Funny enough, the Dodgers have tumbled down the standings despite being the healthiest they've been maybe all year. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow recently returned from their shoulder issues, Blake Treinen is back after batting elbow trouble, and Ohtani got stretched out to four innings and 54 pitches in his most recent start. Tommy Edman, Enrique Hernández, Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, and others are still out, but several key contributors returned and the Dodgers are getting closer to whole.

This applies to the Padres, too, of course. Michael King returned from his monthslong shoulder issue this past weekend. Yu Darvish made his season debut last month and is just now rounding into form. San Diego's list of injured players is not nearly as long as the Dodgers' -- Jhony Brito and Joe Musgrove are their only two players on the major-league injured list -- though they were missing two of their top starters too. King and Darvish have combined for 18 starts this season, or one fewer than Glasnow and Sasaki.

2. San Diego's big advantage is in the bullpen

Was trading shortstop Leo De Vries, one of the very best prospects in the sport, for a short reliever in Mason Miller an overpay? To some, yeah, maybe it was, especially since the Padres were not lacking quality relief options. Then again, there is no such thing as too many good relievers, and Miller is not some ordinary reliever. He is one of the most overpowering forces in the game.

The difference between the two teams was on display Tuesday. The Padres jumped out to an early lead and four relievers (David Morgan, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, Robert Suarez) shut the door over 4 ⅓ innings. They retired 11 of the final 13 batters the Giants sent to the plate. Jeremiah Estrada, who could close for many teams, and Miller weren't even needed.

While San Diego's bullpen closed out their win, the Dodgers watched Alex Vesia blow the save in a one-run game on a single, a walk, a sacrifice bunt, and a sac fly. Ben Casparius had to bail Vesia out in the ninth before giving up the walk-off single in the tenth. Two days earlier, Treinen and Vesia combined to allow three home runs in the final two innings to turn a late-inning lead into a loss. 

The bullpen numbers since the July 31 trade deadline, when the Padres added Miller and the Dodgers added the now-injured Brock Stewart, don't compare:

I don't think it's a stretch to say the Padres have four relievers (Adam, Estrada, Miller, Morejon) better than the Dodgers' best reliever (Vesia? Maybe Jack Dreyer?). That number could be as high as five, depending on how you feel about Suarez, who is very good but can be wobbly at times. He's certainly not out of place in a high-leverage role on a contender though.

Point is, the late innings are an adventure for the Dodgers and, in fact, have been all season, given how shaky Scott and Yates were when they were healthy. The Padres haven't had that problem at any point this year, even before adding Miller. Manager Mike Shildt can roll out dominator after dominator in close games and, more often than not, the Padres will come out ahead.

3. The Dodgers' big advantage is their star power

I am a big believer in depth winning division titles and stars winning championships. Depth is imperative. Even the best teams will use 40-50 players a season these days. The Brewers have been on a rampage the last few months and they've used 23 different position players and 28 different pitchers (not including position player pitchers) in 2025. It takes a village to win your division.

In October, stars reign supreme. Or, more accurately, star-caliber performance reigns supreme, and of course, stars are more likely to perform at that level. Teams win championships when Freddie Freeman goes deep in four straight games on one healthy ankle, when Corey Seager drives in six runs in five games, when Yordan Alvarez hits a 450-foot tank off a lefty throwing 100 mph.

The Padres certainly have stars in Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., the latter of whom is a .375/.474/.854 hitter in 13 career postseason games. The Dodgers have the singular Ohtani though, and Freeman, and also Betts, who I would never bet against rising to the moment. I don't think it's unfair to say Los Angeles has a decided advantage in top-end talent.

For San Diego to complete this NL West comeback, they'll need Machado and Tatis to lead the way. If they don't perform like stars, then the jig is up. Similarly, it's curtains for Dodgers in the division if Betts, Freeman, and/or Ohtani don't perform as expected. The Dodgers do have more high-end talent throughout the roster though, and thus a little more margin for error.

4. They're going to see a lot of each other soon

The new, more balanced schedule means fewer games within the division late in the season. That's unfortunate. The good news is that the NL West race is close right now, in mid-August, and the Dodgers and Padres will see each other plenty this month. They have two series coming up:

• Aug. 15-17 at Dodger Stadium
• Aug. 22-24 at Petco Park

Three games in Los Angeles this weekend and three games in San Diego next weekend. Delightful. The Dodgers get the Rockies for three games between Padres series, while the Padres get four games against the Giants, so that's an advantage for the Dodgers, but six games between the Dodgers and Padres in the next 11 days? Sign me up.

The Dodgers, it must be noted, lead the season series 5-2. The season series determines the tiebreaker, which could be crucial given the standings. The Dodgers only need to go 2-4 against the Padres these next two weekends to clinch that tiebreaker. But of course, going 2-4 against the Padres these next two weekends likely lands the Dodgers in second place. 

Point is, the Dodgers had a nine-game lead six weeks ago, but the Padres have chased them down. The NL West race is intense as it is. Getting six Dodgers vs. Padres games over the next two weeks will only ratchet up the drama. It's too bad they don't have any head-to-head series in September, but I'll happily take these next two weekends.