NL wild-card odds breakdown: Mets, Reds locked in two-team race for final spot as Cubs, Padres sitting pretty

Who will the six National League playoff teams be?

By Matt Snyder

Aug 21, 2025 at 2:00 pm ET • 5 min read

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Something has happened in the NL Wild Card race in the last few weeks that bears serious watching. There's a man all-too-familiar with the playoffs in their dugout, too, and it's Terry Francona's Cincinnati Reds.

They've had some help from plenty of other teams faltering, too, but the Reds, since July 22, have gone a respectable 16-12, and it has moved them to within just one game of the final playoff spot in the NL.

Now, that's hardly a monster surge in a small sample, even if it's good or even very good baseball (a 16-12 record is a 162-game pace of 93 wins, just to give you an idea of their level of play). It's good enough to get them within striking range, along with some futility emanating from Queens.

The Mets have lost 16 of their last 22 games. I'm sure they still have designs on the division, but they are 6 ½ games out in the NL East while barely clinging to the last playoff spot, so I'd say saving that spot is the main focus at this moment in time.

Let's check out the playoff odds for the NL contenders and examine the path forward. We're gonna toss out the Brewers, because even if they've lost four of their last five games, they are more than 12 games in front of the Reds. This also means Milwaukee would need to be passed by the other five teams in playoff position, as well as the Reds, to miss the postseason. That ain't happening. They're getting in.

Here are the odds to make (or miss) the playoffs, via Caesars, for the rest of the NL playoff contenders, along with a short breakdown on each.

Phillies (to miss playoffs) +3300

We don't need to spend much time here. The Phillies are gonna make the playoffs. They have a 6 ½ game lead in the NL East. The Mets do have seven more head-to-head games against the Phillies, so I guess it's still possible the Phillies end up in a Wild Card spot, but it's just unlikely.

Dodgers (to miss playoffs) +2200

Again, we don't need to spend time here. The Dodgers' most likely path to the playoffs is winning the NL West, but they surely won't miss the playoffs altogether. It's worth noting that they currently hold a 1-game lead over the Padres and are only 5 ½ games ahead of the Reds.

Cubs (to miss playoffs) +1800

Heading into Thursday, the Cubs have trimmed the Brewers' lead in the NL Central to six games, but taking that division is still very unlikely, especially with Thursday being the last head-to-head game between the two. The Cubs are more than six games safe in the Wild Card and several teams would need to pass them. They also have one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball.

Padres -6000

In looking at schedule strength, the Padres have the easiest slate left in baseball, with the Cubs second and the Dodgers third. It's one of the main reasons these three are such sure bets to get in. The big thing for the Padres is trying to win the NL West -- they are only one game back -- but in terms of the playoffs, they should be fine.

Mets -350

Now we're talking.

The Mets are hanging on to a playoff spot by the skin of their teeth. They have one of the toughest remaining schedules, too, sitting fourth in opponents' winning percentage. They have those seven games left against the Phillies, which could be viewed as an opportunity to make headway in the division race, but others could view it as tough sledding.

The rotation has to be a concern. Mets starters have a 4.99 ERA in the second half and it's 5.78 in August. Frankie Montas just didn't work while Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill are injured. The workloads of Clay Holmes and Kodai Senga are also concerning, given their circumstances. Perhaps Nolan McLean makes good on his promise down the stretch while Sean Manaea locks in.

The Mets have the talent to play like one of the best teams in baseball, but there's a ton of variance baked in here, even with their stars Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso, who are all prone to extended cold streaks.

Zoom in on Sept. 5-7 when the Mets visit the Reds for three games. That might end up being a huge series with implications for the final playoff spot. Before then, the Mets go to Atlanta (and the Braves aren't awful right now, having won eight of their last 10), host the Phillies for three, host the Marlins for four (again, they aren't a total pushover) and then play three in Detroit against a Tigers team that has rediscovered their way.

Stay tuned.

Reds +250

While the Mets have the fourth hardest remaining schedule, the Reds have the second most difficult. In addition to the series against the Mets, which is a big opportunity at home, the Reds have to tangle with the Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers and Padres before the season ends.

The rotation sets up nicely with Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott looking like a pair of aces. Nick Lodolo should return next week from a blister, too.

Even when they've been winning, though, it still seems like they need more offensively. They are averaging 4.1 runs per game (tied for 21st in MLB) while hitting .251/.301/.377 (22nd in OPS) in August.

The overwhelmingly most-likely scenario in the NL is the Phillies win the NL East while the Brewers, Cubs, Padres and Dodgers are all safely playoff teams with the Mets and Reds duking it out for the final playoff spot.

I'll go with the Mets, but the Reds are going to have a shot here. The Mets have a tough schedule before the Reds get them head-to-head in Great American Ball Park the weekend after Labor Day. They have a shot to take care of business. It starts this weekend in Arizona against an inferior Diamondbacks team.