Hot stove season is underway in Major League Baseball. And with a lockout looming when the current collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, the next four weeks will likely be the only time that teams have to sign free agents, make trades and reshape their rosters before transactions come to a halt.
Want some context into just how much of a mad dash this could become? One brief exchange with a head of baseball operations offered a glimpse. When asked what his club anticipated in the coming weeks, the executive offered only this: "I'm going to stiff arm you on this one," the exec said. "Because I'm time constrained right now. A lot going on with staff and player conversations."
Urgency will play a role this November. Naturally, teams don't want to be left behind. And the way modern baseball conducts business could be challenged.
Over the last five years, the early stages of MLB's offseason have been largely anticlimactic. Front offices, many of which rely on similar analytical models, have increasingly approached the market with caution, contributing to a process that can drag well into the winter.
Even the Winter Meetings, traditionally a gathering place in early December for blockbuster trades and significant free-agent signings, have increasingly become more of a launching pad for offseason conversations than a destination for completed deals.
So, what does this peculiar November have in store? Yes, there will be moves. But according to one high-ranking league executive, don't expect the approaches that have defined the modern offseason to change entirely. The urgency might be different, but the process of gathering information, evaluating talent and understanding the market remains largely the same.
"You can't get caught flat-footed, so we're going through the same motions of lining up who we like, identifying different ways to meet our needs, calling agents and letting them know we have interest," the executive said. "Next week at GM meetings will be helpful to learn more. That's usually when we indicate we want to zoom with a player and we'll see how agents/players react to that."
Trades, certainly, could take precedence over free-agent signings, given the circumstances and the talent available. This year's free-agent class is notably weak, particularly when it comes to starting pitching. The trade market, meanwhile, could offer alternatives that free agency simply doesn't.
One left-handed starter from the Los Angeles Angels, who isn't set to become a free agent until 2029, figures to be particularly coveted.
"A bunch of teams need pitching based on our initial sweepstakes," the executive continued. "So I think names like Reid Detmers will be in high demand. If you're a team in on him, it might be worth overpaying to jump the line. After [Tarik] Skubal, none of the starting pitching free agent names are that exciting."
No team wants to get left behind. But with the uncertainty surrounding 2027 and little indication of what next year might look like, teams don't want to overreact, either. The temptation to move quickly must be weighed against the consequences of making the wrong move.
There's a balance.
Reacting to an opponent's moves, as that same executive suggested, can prove costly. Particularly in a market where the pressure to act could drive up the price of acquiring talent.
More importantly, all of this remains a moving target. The uncertainty surrounding the next season complicates even the most straightforward roster decisions. Rentals, as one front-office official put it, aren't particularly attractive given the circumstances. In the (still seemingly unlikely) event that there's no baseball in 2027, trading away prospects or valuable big-league talent for a player with only one year of control becomes a considerable gamble. A team could surrender valuable assets without ever getting the opportunity to benefit from the acquisition.
Years of contractual control carry even greater value now. Teams recognize that, which could ultimately stall trades. The very players who might offer the most security in an uncertain market could also become the most difficult to acquire.
"We're really operating under uncertainty now," one front-office person said.
Now, that isn't to suggest free-agent deals won't get done. In fact, one agent said he wouldn't be surprised to see a flurry of mid-tier players reach agreements ahead of the Dec. 1 CBA expiration, pointing to the activity leading up to the 2021–22 lockout as evidence of how an approaching deadline can accelerate an otherwise slow-moving market.
"Last time there was going to be a lockout it was extremely active for Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman, who were free agents entering 2022," the agent said.
Gausman signed a five-year, $110 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, while Stroman inked a three-year, $71 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, meanwhile, agreed to huge deals with the Texas Rangers. A total of $1.7 billion in free-agent contracts were agreed to prior to the lockout.
This year, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Gausman, again, certainly fit that second-tier group.
"Nothing motivates clubs more than a deadline, so I'd be shocked if there wasn't a flurry of deals prior to the deadline," the agent said.
Whether through trades or free agency, the expectation remains that deals will get done in the next four weeks. It will be a fascinating November.
