How and where to bet MLB player prop picks and odds for Aug. 28: Yankees starter among best bets

There are just eight games on Thursday's MLB schedule, but teams fighting for playoff positioning have chances to make statements and there should be no shortage of interesting MLB betting options. Reeling from a sweep at the hands of the rival Mets, the Phillies host the Braves as they look to once again widen the gap atop the NL East. The Mets, for their part, welcome the Marlins to Citi Field. The Yankees, fresh off a sweep of the Nationals, look to feast on another bad team as they visit the White Sox. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 21 of the 2025 MLB season at a profitable 31-23 on top-rated MLB money line picks. The Inside the Lines team has locked in on its most favorable props for Wednesday's games. Here are there best plays.

Best MLB player props for Thursday, Aug. 28

• Will Warren Over 4.5 strikeouts
• Oneil Cruz to steal a base

Sportsbook promos for MLB player props on Thursday, Aug. 28

Big NFL fans may be interested in the DraftKings promo code, which gives new users both $300 in bonus bets and a $200 discount code for NFL Sunday Ticket through YouTube TV. The FanDuel promo code also comes with $300 in bonus bets, but only if new users win their qualifying first bet. The bet365 bonus code gives new users $200 on bonus bets, regardless of whether your first bet of $5 or more wins or loses.

The BetMGM bonus code offers up to $1,500 in bonus bets, up to the amount of a new user's first bet if that bet loses. The Fanatics Sportsbook promo code offers new users 20+ 1$00 No Sweat Bets in FanCash if their first football bet loses on every NFL or college football game day through Oct. 12. 

The Caesars Sportsbook promo code offers 20 100% profit boost tokens after new users place a first bet of $1 or more.

Will Warren Over 4.5 strikeouts

Garrett Crochet crushed his Over in his last start when we faded him, so we have learned our lesson. It may be a good day to play it conservatively with Will Warren Over 4.5 strikeouts at -160 on bet365. The Over 5.5 at plus money is tempting, but instead we'll take advantage of this buy-low spot after Warren has had just three strikeouts in each of his last two outings. Despite his last two starts, Warren is still 8-5 Over 4.5. He does only average 4.8 strikeouts per road start compared to 6.0 at home. 

Oneil Cruz to steal a base

Oneil Cruz has not had a stolen base in over a month and yet is still fourth in the league in that category. Our model's +225 line implies a little more than a 30% chance he breaks this streak with a stolen base on Thursday, and bet365 is offering +290, which implies less than a 26% chance, which is much better than the +240 Hard Rock was offering. FanDuel also moved to +290 in the morning. Grabbing +290 may not be worth it, but if the line continues to steam and hits the +320 range, this is worth considering.

MLB home runs, stolen bases, strikeouts cheat sheet

The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team's picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple: We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs. the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases, lines move in our direction, so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value. 

The table below shows today's projected leading home run, stolen base and strikeout leaders. We include the projection, and for HRs and SBs, the money line we'd set for YES HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book's line, and if your book's line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player), then you would want to consider that bet.