AL West divisional odds breakdown: Can Mariners finally dethrone Astros, or will Rangers crash the party?

Is this a three-team race to win the AL West? Let's dive in

By Matt Snyder

Aug 15, 2025 at 12:36 pm ET • 5 min read

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In case you're new here, the Houston Astros own the American League West. They've won the last seven division titles if we toss out the 60-game COVID season. Sure, sometimes there were battles to the end, but it just keeps coming up Astros. They trailed by as much as four games earlier this season, but then the Astros did what they do and got hot. They took control and pushed that division lead up to seven games. They led by seven as recently as July 6.

Since July 6, though, the Astros have struggled. They've gone 13-18 with a -26 run differential.

In the same time period, the Mariners have gotten hot and the Rangers were hot for a quick second. The Mariners actually tied the Astros for first place earlier this week and the Rangers crept up to within 4.5 games.

The Mariners have only won the AL West three times and that hasn't happened since 2001. They've never been to a World Series, the only franchise with that dubious distinction.

All lines are from BetMGM.

Is this a three-team race, or can we kick the Rangers out of the discussion? More importantly, can anyone (namely the Mariners) dethrone the Astros? Let's dive in.

Houston Astros

Record: 68-53 | Odds to win AL West: -135

Run prevention has been a problem for the Astros since their downturn. The rotation just hasn't been good enough. The returns of Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier, along with soon-to-be returns from Luis Garcia and J.P. France, might help, but Valdez has had two bad starts this month, and returning from major injury is never a sure thing for the rest of the current season. There's certainly reason to make any Astros fan nervous with this bunch.

The offense hasn't been lighting the world on fire either. In that 13-18 stretch, the Astros are averaging 4.16 runs per game (league average this season is 4.42) while hitting .247/.312/.394 (league average is .246/.316/.403).

The bullpen in that time frame ranks 19th in ERA.

Basically, no one aspect of the team is totally stinking up the joint, but rotation, bullpen and offense have all been below average. It's not a good recipe for success while fighting for a division title. On top of that, closer Josh Hader has a very concerning shoulder injury right now.

Now, in addition to the starting pitching returns, the Astros recently got shortstop Jeremy Peña back -- and also traded back for Carlos Correa -- and stud designated hitter Yordan Alvarez is looking to return at some point. He's set to take live batting practice this weekend.

What we're left with on the Astros is a team that was one of the best in baseball through the early part of July and a team that's been one of the worst since. There should be help coming in the form of injury returns, while others who recently returned from injury have a chance to round back into tip-top form.

There's a lot of talent and pedigree here, along with a lot of questions.

Seattle Mariners

Record: 67-55 | Odds to win AL West: +105

The Mariners have long felt like one of those teams that tease their fan base. They'll get tantalizingly close to truly breaking through and then a backslide happens. It needs to be said -- as a Cubs fan, trust me -- that this doesn't mean it will always happen.

Still, I could empathize with Mariners fans who have seen too much in their lives. That means when the Mariners build up a 3.5-game lead through May 23 only to fall behind the Astros by seven games in early July, the "here we go again" thoughts are natural. By the same token, after the recent hot streak, the Mariners pulled into a tie with the Astros after Tuesday's win, but then lost in walk-off fashion on Wednesday and got beaten again Thursday by a subpar Orioles ballclub.

Here we go again.

The Astros have the easier remaining schedule, too.

What the Mariners have, though, are three more head-to-head chances against the Astros -- with the season series tied, 5-5 -- and arguably a better team.

The best player in the division this season is Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. Center fielder Julio Rodríguez is capable of playing like an MVP-caliber star and he has in the second half. I expect that to continue. Randy Arozarena is an All-Star-level performer. The Mariners added a professional bat in Josh Naylor and a player capable of being a 45-homer slugger in Eugenio Suárez in front of the trade deadline. J.P. Crawford's high on-base percentage plays really well toward the bottom of the order now with the thunder at the top coming behind him. Dominic Canzone looks like he's having a breakthrough partial season at the plate, too.

We're used to thinking about the M's as a team with no offense and all pitching, but the offense is plenty capable down the stretch.

The top four in the rotation right now don't have nearly as many questions as the Astros do.

Since the start of last season, Bryan Woo is 19-9 with a 3.00 ERA.
We know all about Luis Castillo and he's arguably having his best year with the Mariners.
Former All-Star and K-to-BB specialist George Kirby has been inconsistent this year, but he's got a 1.44 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 25 innings in his last four starts.
Former All-Star Logan Gilbert dealt with injury earlier this season, but he's got a 3.07 ERA with 57 strikeouts in 44 innings since his return.

Now, the bullpen does have its questions. Andrés Muñoz is usually a stud closer, but he has blown six saves (though none in his last seven chances). Matt Brash has emerged as an elite setup man, but it can get shaky otherwise. Of course, it can get shaky with every bullpen in baseball. The Mariners have gotten good work from Gabe Speier and Eduard Bazardo in the second half, so it's possible they've found the correct late-inning formula and this isn't a big issue.

Texas Rangers

Record: 61-61 | Odds to win AL West: +3500

This discussion would've been more fruitful just over a week ago. The Rangers have now lost six of seven.

They're 7.5 games out right now with two teams in front of them, so it's a really tall order. While they do have six head-to-head games left against the Astros, there are none against the Mariners. I still think the Rangers could be a tough playoff team if they can make it and perhaps the Wild Card will make that possible. I just don't think we need to spend much time discussing their chances at winning this division.