Fantasy Football Week 12 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em Wide Reciever: Justin Jefferson's slump tests Fantasy managers
Wide receivers you want in Week 12 lineups, and those you should avoid
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1 min read
Is it time to bench Justin Jefferson? That's a question we keep getting heading into Week 12 at Green Bay.
Jefferson is struggling with J.J. McCarthy, and Fantasy managers are frustrated. In his past three starts with McCarthy, Jefferson is averaging just 11.8 PPR points. He's combined for nine catches for 98 yards and no touchdowns in his past two outings against the Ravens and Bears despite 21 targets.
The Packers are No. 11 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and Green Bay has allowed just three receivers to score more than 11 PPR points in the past five games. This isn't an easy matchup.
But matchups never used to matter for Jefferson, who has scored at least 17.2 PPR points in three of his past five games against the Packers, including two in a row. However, with McCarthy under center, we have to factor in everything when it comes to Jefferson.
I'm still going to start Jefferson as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues. But he's not a set it and forget it type of player right now, and that's unfortunate.
There's still plenty of upside because of his potential, and Jefferson is getting the target volume we love. But we need him and McCarthy to get on the same page so that we can trust Jefferson as usual once the Fantasy playoffs are here.
WRs to Start
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Olave was great in Week 10 at Carolina with five catches for 104 yards and a touchdown on eight targets, and he should continue to be the main weapon in the passing game for Tyler Shough heading into Week 12 against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed seven receivers to score at least 12.8 PPR points in the past five games, with eight touchdowns over that span, and Olave has scored at least 14.6 PPR points in three games in a row against the Falcons prior to this matchup.
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I was way off on McMillan last week when I listed him as the Bust Alert at wide receiver, and he scored 33 PPR points at Atlanta. He had eight catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets, and he should stay hot in Week 12 at San Francisco. The 49ers are No. 6 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and four receivers in the past two weeks scored at least 17.4 PPR points against San Francisco from the Rams (Puka Nacua and Davante Adams) and Cardinals (Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch). McMillan will hopefully follow suit, and he's worth starting as a high-end No. 2 receiver in the majority of leagues.
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Diggs revealed Wednesday that he's been playing through a fractured finger, but it hasn't impacted his production. He has either a touchdown or 100 receiving yards in four games in a row, and he has 19 targets in his past two outings against Tampa Bay and the Jets. This week, Diggs gets to face the Bengals at home, and Cincinnati has allowed three receivers to score at least 15.4 PPR points in the past three games. I like Diggs as a high-end No. 2 receiver in the majority of leagues. Kayshon Boutte, who missed the past two games with a hamstring injury, should also be considered a sleeper in his return to action. Prior to getting hurt in Week 9, Boutte had scored at least 13.5 PPR points in three games in a row.
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Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendix) is out in Week 12 against Jacksonville, which means Wilson will once again be the No. 1 receiver for the Cardinals. That worked out well in Week 11 against San Francisco when Wilson had 15 catches for 185 yards on 18 targets. I wouldn't expect that level of volume again, but Jacoby Brissett has attempted at least 44 passes in three of five starts. And prior to getting hurt, Harrison was averaging 11 targets per game in his previous two outings. The Jaguars have allowed nine receivers to score at least 12 PPR points this season, and Wilson has top-15 upside in the majority of leagues. Greg Dortch, who scored 18.6 PPR points in Week 11, is also worth using as a sleeper in deeper leagues.
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Dan Campbell started calling plays for the Lions in the past two games against Washington and Philadelphia, and Williams has 10 catches for 207 yards and two touchdowns on 14 targets over that span. His route tree has changed, and Williams now benefits with Sam LaPorta (back) on injured reserve. This week, Williams should stay hot against the Giants, who are No. 5 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. There have been 14 receivers with at least 14 PPR points against the Giants this season, which bodes well for Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown both going off in Week 12.
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Sleepers (Start/Sit)
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Pierce doesn't have an easy matchup in Week 12 at Kansas City since the Chiefs are No. 8 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, but I'm hopeful he will stay hot based on what he did prior to his bye in Week 11. Pierce has scored at least 14.8 PPR points in three of his past four games, including two in a row with at least 17.5 PPR points. He had 20 targets combined against the Steelers and Falcons in his past two outings, and he's become a go-to target for Daniel Jones. Michael Pittman should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues, and Pierce is right behind him. I also like Josh Downs as a sleeper, and Downs has scored at least 11.4 PPR points in four of his past five games prior to Week 12.
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Robinson only scored 7.6 PPR points in Week 11 against Green Bay, but he had nine targets. He now has at least nine targets in three games in a row, and he should continue to see plenty of volume, no matter if Jaxson Dart (concussion) or Jameis Winston starts in Week 12 at Detroit. Robinson has also scored at least 12.2 PPR points in four of his past six games, and the Lions have allowed nine receivers to score at least 12.9 PPR points this season. I like Robinson as a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues.
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Ja'Marr Chase (suspended) is out for Week 12 against New England, which puts Iosivas in a prominent role for the Bengals. Tee Higgins should benefit the most with Chase out, and we'll see who else steps up in Cincinnati to support Joe Flacco. But Iosivas is worth taking a chance on as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues. He has two games this season with seven targets, including Week 9 against Chicago with Flacco, and Iosivas scored at least 13.2 PPR points in both of those outings. For the season, Chase is averaging 11.7 targets per game, so this could be a good chance for Iosivas to help the Bengals -- and Fantasy managers -- in Week 12.
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Ricky Pearsall could have an increased role in Week 12 against Carolina, but I still like Jennings as the best wide receiver for the 49ers. He had a down game in Week 11 at Arizona with four catches for 54 yards on six targets, but prior to that, he scored at least 14.1 PPR points in his previous two games. The Panthers have allowed a receiver to score at least 16.1 PPR points in four games in a row, and I hope Jennings will keep that streak alive in this matchup. He should be considered a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all formats.
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Drake London (knee) is not expected to play in Week 12 at New Orleans, which will hopefully allow Mooney to have his best game of the season. He's struggled this year with no touchdowns and 9.8 PPR points or less in each game. But he has at least seven targets in each of his past two outings against the Colts and Panthers, and Kirk Cousins should lean on Mooney once again with London out. Three receivers in the past two games against the Saints have scored at least 11 PPR points, and Mooney has scored at least 13.2 PPR points in each of his past two games at New Orleans in the past two years.
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WRs to Sit
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Watson scored 20.5 PPR points in Week 11 at the Giants thanks to two touchdowns, and I hope he's trending in the right direction to be a difference maker for the Packers and Fantasy managers to close the season. But he only had five targets -- which were a season high -- against the Giants and finished with four catches for 46 yards. He needs more targets to be considered a starter in the majority of leagues, and this is a tough matchup against Minnesota in Week 12. The Vikings are No. 4 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and Watson should only be started in three-receiver leagues in Week 12. Romeo Doubs, who has combined for 10.8 PPR points in his past two games against the Eagles and Giants, is also just a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in most formats in this game.
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Addison caught a touchdown in Week 11 against Chicago but still scored just 10 PPR points with two catches for 20 yards on seven targets. In three starts with J.J. McCarthy, Addison has combined for seven catches for 103 yards and a touchdown on 22 targets. Hopefully, Addison and McCarthy will start to connect on a high level moving forward, but Addison is tough to trust right now heading into Week 12 at Green Bay. He's only worth starting in three-receiver leagues.
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Tucker had a solid game in Week 11 against Dallas with four catches for 47 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. It was his first touchdown since Week 3 and his first game with double digits in PPR since Week 6. Geno Smith should continue to lean on Tucker as the No. 1 receiver for the Raiders, but he has a tough matchup in Week 12 against the Browns. Cleveland is No. 7 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and the Browns have allowed just two receiving touchdowns to a receiver in their past four games against Miami, New England, the Jets, and Baltimore. I would only start Tucker in three-receiver leagues in Week 12.
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Worthy had another down game in Week 11 at Denver with three catches for 25 yards on five targets. He has now scored 10.3 PPR points or less in each of the four games since Rashee Rice returned from his six-game suspension, and Worthy only has one touchdown on the year. There appears to be little upside with Worthy heading into Week 12, and he could be headed for a matchup with Indianapolis cornerback Sauce Gardner. Worthy is barely worth starting in three-receiver leagues in this matchup.
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Bust Alert (Start/Sit)
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Metcalf has combined for 12 PPR points in his past three games against the Colts, Chargers and Bengals despite getting 19 targets over that span, and he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 8. This week, Metcalf could be catching passes from an injured Aaron Rodgers (left wrist) or backup Mason Rudolph, and there's reason to be concerned about Metcalf's outlook. The matchup against the Bears is favorable since Chicago is No. 5 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, but it's hard to trust Metcalf given his recent level of play, along with his quarterback situation. He should be considered a low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver at best in the majority of leagues.
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