tucker-kraft-green-bay-packers-usatsi.jpg
USATSI

The most Fantasy drafts of the year are happening now in the final week of August, and this is an exciting time. And we know many of you will use the CBS Sports average draft position data as a guide, which you can view here. I encourage you to study the ADP because it's a good blueprint for how your draft might go.

But you never want to follow ADP directly for your drafts. The idea is to see where you can find potential value picks -- and players going too soon that you might want to avoid. We'll help you to navigate the ADP to make the best decisions for your real draft.

Let's take a look at the updated CBS Sports ADP for PPR, and we're focusing on tight ends here. Our "great or late" strategy should work well this season, but I still think the middle group of tight ends could define the position.

First, let's establish the "great" tight ends, and there are three of them with Brock Bowers (ADP of 25.7), Trey McBride (35.7), and George Kittle (38.2). These values are excellent, especially for McBride, who I have yet to see fall to the end of Round 3 in more than 50 drafts.

If you can draft one of these three tight ends, then you should have a big advantage over the majority of your league. Bowers, McBride, and Kittle all have the chance to average more than 15 PPR points per game -- if not more.

The "late" tight ends are the ones being drafted around pick 100 overall or later, and my favorite options are Tyler Warren (99.2), Tucker Kraft (116.7), Zach Ertz (116.8), Dallas Goedert (122.5), Colston Loveland (129.1), Jake Ferguson (133.3), Dalton Kincaid (137.4) and Kyle Pitts (141.9). Warren and Kraft are two breakout candidates, and Ferguson, Ertz, and Goedert are safe fallback tight ends. Loveland, Kincaid, and Pitts are sleepers with huge upside.

Now, the group in between the "great" and "late" tight ends is the one to focus on, which includes Sam LaPorta (59.4), Travis Kelce (62.3), T.J. Hockenson (77.1), Mark Andrews (77.7), David Njoku (81.1), and Evan Engram (97.5). I love the value for Njoku, who is my No. 4 tight end this year, and Engram is a good price as well with his move to Denver.

LaPorta is being drafted too soon, and the same goes for Kelce, although his value could change depending on how long Rashee Rice is suspended. I also don't like Andrews at his cost, considering that Isaiah Likely (foot) might be able to play early in the season since he avoided being placed on short-term injured reserve. And Hockenson is just slightly overpriced, but he does get three games to open the season without Jordan Addison (suspension), which should help Hockenson start off playing well.

My approach for tight ends on Draft Day is if I can't get one of the top three guys, then I'm doing it. Otherwise, I'm going to wait for one of Njoku, LaPorta, Kelce, or Hockenson to be a good value pick, which means if any of them are available after Round 7.

If that doesn't happen, then I'll target Kraft or Warren in Round 9, and I would draft both of those guys ahead of Engram and Andrews, who are Round 10 options. If all those guys are gone, then I would plan for two tight ends and pair someone like Loveland, Kincaid, or Pitts with Ferguson, Ertz, or Goedert. I'd like a tight end with high upside to go with one who has a safe floor to see what develops early in the season.

Best Value

Tucker Kraft

ADP: 116.8

The quarterback situation for the Colts could determine how good Warren will be, and Daniel Jones has since been named their Week 1 starter, but Josh Downs (hamstring) is hurt, which is something to monitor. Any absence for Downs or Michael Pittman will only enhance the value for Warren, no matter who starts out of Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones. I like Warren as the No. 8 Fantasy tight end, and I would draft him in Round 9. At Penn State in 2024, Warren had 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight touchdowns, and he added 26 carries for 218 yards and four touchdowns. He should be a go-to option for the Colts right away, and I'm excited to draft him at this cost.

Worst Value

Sam LaPorta

ADP: 59.1

I love LaPorta, and I hope he has a top-five finish this season at tight end. But it's hard to justify drafting him in Round 5 when he's in the same tier as Njoku, who you can draft almost two rounds later. And I have Njoku ranked higher than LaPorta. There are once again a lot of mouths to feed in Detroit, and the Lions are talking about Jameson Williams having a breakout campaign. I just don't see LaPorta living up to this draft capital this year.