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USATSI

In Fantasy Football, and in life, you're allowed to change your mind. And I'm doing exactly that with Jets quarterback Justin Fields.

I'm no longer ready to take him as a top-12 quarterback, much less a top-10.

With Fields it took small but subtle reminders: 4 of 9 passing for 46 yards with three off-target throws (excluding a screen pass to the wrong shoulder of Garrett Wilson) through two preseason games, and a bunch of quick throws where he made one read or a few times where he missed open targets downfield but opted to keep it short.

This extremely small sample size comes in meaningless matchups against vanilla defenses that blitzed him on only two of his 12 dropbacks this preseason. What's going to happen in meaningful matchups against exotic defenses that will find ways to attack Fields' weaknesses? That's going to happen as soon as Week 1 when he faces the Steelers, a team that might know a thing or two about him.

Then Buffalo the week after that. And then at Tampa Bay.

Additionally, Fields has not had a good training camp, starting slow in early August and apparently being gun-shy as recently as in a joint practice against the Giants. So maybe the small sample I've seen on film is in larger quantities in practice.

My colleague Heath Cummings points to Fields' career improvement in completion rate, interception rate, and passer rating, along with his sack rate dropping over his past three years. All true. But in his past three years as a starter, Fields' touchdown rate has collapsed (from 5.3% to 4.3% to 3.1%) and his average depth of throw has shriveled. Just 26.9% of his passes last year traveled 10-plus air yards, third lowest among 37 qualifying quarterbacks.

I obviously understand that it's Fields' rushing that makes him appealing, and his Round 10 average draft position on CBS makes him mostly harmless to Fantasy managers. If I'm going to chase a dual-threat quarterback with a double-digit round pick, I'd rather get Drake Maye.

Through his two preseason games, Maye has completed 16 of 25 passes for 187 yards with a touchdown and a turnover. He's also run for another score. And after watching him practice and breaking down his preseason film, it's clear he's improved as a thrower with better awareness than he had as a rookie. Maye's a bit more aggressive with the ball, and his arm is stronger and more accurate than Fields. It should be more than enough to make up the difference in rushing between the two quarterbacks. 

And if the schedule isn't a tiebreaker (the Patriots have a better slate than the Jets, especially early), then Fields' injury history should be.

Why Anthony Richardson looks like Colts starter

Speaking of late-round quarterbacks with incredibly high ceilings, Anthony Richardson narrowly put himself in position to be named the Colts starting quarterback after a mostly good showing against the Packers last weekend.

Over 20 snaps, Richardson completed 6 of 11 passes for 73 yards with a sack. Not awesome, but two of his five incompletions were either knocked down or broken up. In other words, Richardson had fewer off-target throws and made a couple of sharp downfield plays, including a beautiful 38-yard completion to Anthony Gould called back on an illegal formation penalty that didn't impact the throw or catch whatsoever.

Jones' stat line was better: 7 of 11 passing for 101 yards -- but he was a little slow on a few of his reads and had an off-target throw or two himself.

I think if Richardson had played poorly here, the Colts would have had no choice but to go to Jones. And they might do that at the first sign of Richardson struggling during the season. But because Richardson is healthy and has seemingly taken steps to improve his passing while still being a tremendous rushing threat, he should get the first crack at the gig to begin the year.

My colleague Pete Prisco put it best: Richardson has more upside.

Does it mean Richardson is a must-draft? No, but if he went undrafted and then posted a good Week 1 against a suspect Dolphins secondary, then he'd be the hottest name off of waivers before Week 2 (against the Broncos, yikes). You could reasonably draft him late and evaluate his first few games -- his schedule is ranked better than the Jets and the Patriots, after all. 

Jeanty better, but still reasons for concern

Did you hear the collective exhale from the Fantasy universe when Ashton Jeanty came back into the preseason game against the 49ers after getting his shoulder checked out? How about the collective WOAHHH after his punishing 13-yard run?

Jeanty's second preseason game was much better than his first. His power, low center of gravity, vision, and even his pass protection skills are all on par with what was seen in college and what will be counted on as a rookie.

There are two concerns that live rent-free in my head that keep me from being even more bullish on Jeanty as a rookie:

1. His physical style is a double-edged sword. He can dish it out, but taking it could be a problem if he insists on banging into defenders play after play like he did on a two-yard dump screen from Geno Smith or on a number of his runs, including his 1-yard touchdown. The last thing anyone wants is for Jeanty to miss time.

2. His offensive line looked better this week than last week, especially center Jordan Meredith, but it went up against a 49ers defense mixing starters with backups. Some second-level blocks were missed. I'm still a little worried about the Raiders front five.

Jeanty's 7-33-1 stat line isn't enough to push him past Fantasy stalwarts like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry. But if you're nervous about Malik Nabers or Puka Nacua and would rather have Jeanty, I wouldn't fault you.

Preseason roundup

Steps forward for Kaleb ...: Shout out to Kaleb Johnson for not slowing his feet as much this week running for the Steelers, looking more comfortable and even catching a target. He's not explosive, but he can still be useful for the Steelers offense as a grinder.

... and for Caleb: Bears second-year quarterback Caleb Williams was outstanding against Bills backups. We all saw it as he was rarely pressured. It's a dramatic improvement from how he and his offensive line looked against the first-string Bills defense in their joint practice two days prior ... not that he was that bad in the practice. Williams seems to be building some momentum.

Waddle as Miami's healthiest weapon? The two knocks on Jaylen Waddle are that he's hurt often and he's rarely posted good numbers when both Tyreek Hill and De'Von Achane are healthy. Well, last week in joint practice with the Lions, Waddle returned to a full slate of work without Hill and Achane there, and he did well in 7-on-7 and team drills. I'd encourage Fantasy managers to take a second look at Waddle as a No. 3 receiver.

Seattle's O-line much improved: After last year's mess, the Seahawks front five looked in sync against the Chiefs' mostly second-string defense. It's a positive for their run game to win on zone runs, as Zach Charbonnet did in the game with a 5-45-1 stat line. He's an interesting Fantasy pick -- Kenneth Walker III has begun practicing again, but it's possible the coaching staff will try to even out the workload between the two quality runners. If you draft Walker, you should try to draft Charbonnet in Round 8 before someone else snaps him up in Round 9. I love the idea of stashing Charbonnet, whether I have Walker or not.

Texans without Mixon: Nick Chubb showed signs of life as the Texans RB, but I thought Woody Marks showed more burst and speed. Between these two and Dameon Pierce, it's really difficult to find a Houston rusher to count on until Joe Mixon comes back from his injury. I'm kind of glad I have Marks stashed in a few best ball dynasty leagues I'm in.