Fantasy Football expert vs. NFL prop odds: Six receivers projected to smash over/unders in betting market

As sports betting coverage and information become ubiquitous in the Fantasy Football world, it is interesting to compare my projections to where the season-long prop market currently stands. One thing you will notice right away is that the props are almost universally lower. That is because I generally project for 17 games, then adjust for injury risk in my rankings, while injury risk and the potential of getting benched are baked into the prop market. 

What I will say is that this wasn't quite as true at the wide receiver position. I did not find as many outliers amongst the pass catchers as I did with passers and rushers. That could be because we are dealing with generally lower numbers. That means there aren't as many wide receivers and tight end projected as easy overs, but also that there are a few guys actually projected below their yardage props. One of them is far less surprising than the other. I have Stefon Diggs projected below his 775.5 yardage prop because he is a 31-year-old wide receiver coming off of a torn ACL. He has garnered some positive camp buzz, but I am going to remain cautious with this type of player. The more surprising name is Xavier Worthy. His receiving prop is 900.5. Last year he played 20 games including the playoffs (19 if you throw out Week 18) and had 925 yards receiving. This was with Rashee Rice playing only four games. Right now I have Rice projected to miss three games due to suspension, and Worthy at 851 yards. 

Here are the pass catchers who my projections are much higher on than their projection:

A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles

Heath's yardage projection: 1,422
FanDuel yardage prop: 1125.5
Heath's TD projection: 9.7
FanDuel TD prop: 7.5

Brown produced 1,496 yards in his first year iin Philadelphi and followed that up with 1,456 yards in Year 2. Last year he missed four games and still had 1,079 receiving yards. He has scored 25 touchdowns in 47 games with the Eagles. I expect a slight uptick in passing from last year's Eagles offense and even if there isn't he should smash the yardage projection. The touchdowns are a little trickier, because of the combination of Saquon Barkley and the tush push.

Games needed at my per game projections to hit both Overs: 14

Nico Collins, WR, Texans

Heath's yardage projection: 1,406
FanDuel yardage prop: 1150.5
Heath's TD projection: 8.5
FanDuel TD prop: 6.5

Collins is one of those wide receivers on the threshold of the "injury prone." He hasn't played more than 15 games in a season and in fairness, has only topped 1,150 yards once per game. At the same time, he has averaged 85 receiving yards per game, so it would only take 13.5 games for him to hit this mark. He's also gone over this touchdown total each of the past two seasons despite missing a combined seven games. I am not ready to discount Collins because of the injuries and Fantasy drafters aren't either.

Games needed at my per game projections to hit both Overs: 14

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Browns

Heath yardage projection: 1,148
FanDuel yardage prop: 900.5

Few training camp reports have excited me more than recent chatter that Joe Flacco is pulling away in the quarterback competition in Cleveland. This should not be a surprise at all for as long as the Browns are trying to win games. Flacco has been over 260 passing yards per game each of the past two seasons as a starter and Jeudy accounted for 35% of the team's receiving yards in his first year with the team. The math is more difficult here because it seems likely the Browns may turn to a younger QB once they fall out of contention. Thankfully, we have a nice cushion between the projection and the prop.

Games needed at my per game projections to hit both Overs: 13.5

Travis Hunter, WR, Jaguars

Heath's yardage projection: 1,049
FanDuel yardage prop: 750.5

Hunter is one of the most polarizing players in Fantasy, thanks to questions about just how many offensive snaps he is going to play. Coming into the summer I was optimistic that he was simply too good to keep off the field. Nothing has happened in camp to change that perspective. Seemingly every day there is another highlight of him proving he is one of the best players on the field, regardless of what position he is playing. My yardage projection is based on my guess that Hunter will play about 70% of the team's offensive snaps. I could be 20% too high and he could still go over his yardage prop.

Games needed at my per game projections to hit both Overs: 12.5

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers

Heath's TD projection: 9.5
FanDuel TD prop: 7.5

I have recently boosted Evan's target share projection with Chris Godwin still on PUP to start training camp. One thing that hasn't changed is my expectation that Evans will be a target of Baker Mayfield in the end zone. Evans has scored 24 touchdowns in two seasons with Mayfield and has only finished with fewer than eight touchdowns once in his last seven seasons. Yes, he's 32 years old, that is a concern, but even if Evans takes a step back he should remain a difficult assignment in the red zone.

Games needed at my per game projections to hit TD Over: 14

Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals

Heath's yardage projection: 1,176
FanDuel yardage prop: 900.5

I am higher on both Brock Bowers and McBride than consensus, but Bowers' yardage prop is 125 yards higher. Last year was McBride's first over 1,000 yards, but since he became a full-time player in Week 8 of the 2023 season he has averaged 69.3 yards per game. I am a little worried about Marvin Harrison Jr. ascending and stealing targets from McBride, but not worried enough to think the latter will fail to top 900 yards.

Games needed at my per game projections to hit yardage Over: 13.5