2025 Fantasy Football Busts 2.0 from Heath Cummings
10 players Heath Cummings says you should not draft at their ADP
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2 min read
We're preparing for the busiest Fantasy Football draft weekend of the year is approaching, and we are updating our sleepers, breakouts, and busts. At the top of this list of busts, I want to remind you what I mean by bust, and what I don't. I am not saying these players are going to be terrible; I am certainly not saying they suck. What I am saying is drafting them at their ADP might ruin your Fantasy Football season. At the very least, I believe you are passing up better opportunities. That enough qualifiers? Let's get to the busts.
Starting in Round 1, I am repeating my bust call on Derrick Henry. Yes, that looked dumb last year, but even last year, he wasn't worth the seventh overall pick in full PPR, which he is being drafted now. Also, he's 31 years old and coming off a 386-touch, including the playoffs. I cannot draft a 31-year-old running back in Round 1 of a Fantasy Football draft. I also do not think you should. Of course, I didn't think you should last year either, and Henry finished RB4 and justified the cost. The problem is that is the best-case scenario; maybe he just barely lives up to his ADP. The downside is far more pronounced.
Josh Allen is another phenomenal player who looks like a repeat on my bust list. He's being drafted as QB1 at pick 16, and I don't really like either of those. Last year, I ranked Allen as QB4 due to concerns about the offense and his weapons. In CBS scoring, he finished as QB3 and and there were some troubling signs that have nothing to do with his skillset. He threw 483 passes, his lowest mark since 2019, and he ran the ball 102 times, his lowest mark since 2020. Few quarterbacks have any chance of finishing top 3 with that volume. Allen did it because he's awesome, but it's a narrow path to QB3, much less QB1. I prefer Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson, but I also wouldn't draft Jackson at pick 17 either. In fact, you can put him on the bust list as well.
Last year was the second time in Jackson's career that he posted a touchdown rate over eight percent; the last time it happened, he dropped to 6.9% the following year. He's never been above 5.3% any other year of his career. Every percentage point that touchdown rate drops, Jackson loses five touchdowns. You should expect at least 10 fewer passing touchdowns from Jackson this year. He might still be QB1, but he won't be worth a Round 2 pick.
Here are six more players who make my bust list based on average draft position:
Busts 1.0
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I have legitimate concerns about an offensive decline in Detroit without Ben Johnson. They will still be good, I am not sure they will be a top five scoring offense like they have the last two seasons. That matters more to LaPorta, who has been highly dependent on touchdowns for Fantasy production. LaPorta saw his target share shrink with the emergence of Jameson Williams last year, and LaPorta only topped 60 yards in four games all season. He's definitely a starting tight end in Fantasy, but not part of the elite group you should reach for in the first four rounds of a draft.
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Like LaPorta, Andrews saw his target share plummet last year to barely more than four targets per game. He will turn 30 in September, has battled multiple injuries over the last three years, and has to compete with Isaiah Likely for tight end targets on a run-heavy team once Likely gets back. I am fine with Andrews as a late pick as a low-end starter, but like LaPorta, I don't believe he will be a true difference maker at the position this year.
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Like Henry, Kamara is on the wrong side of 30. That is red flag number one. Number two is that he may be on the worst offense in football, with either Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler as his quarterback. We don't think the Saints defense is any better than slightly below average. The third red flag is that Kamara's efficiency has decreased across the board in the second half of his career. In most years, the hope would be that Kamara would make up for that with receptions, but I am even a little worried about that. Kellen Moore's offenses haven't been bad for running backs, but Austin Ekeler, Ezekiel Elliott, and Saquon Barkley all saw a significant decrease in the reception totals under Moore. That's just too many concerns for his current Round 3 ADP.
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Sensing a theme? Yes, another running back over the age of 30. I simply do not believe that last year's performance by the aging backs is enough to override decades of evidence. The team is talking about involving Trey Benson more, so Conner's upside may not be as high even if he stays healthy.
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Mixon's ADP has been dropping, but not fast enough. His ankle injury is still not resolved, and we haven't gotten any indication that he'll be ready by Week 1. It's one thing to take the risk on an older running back who is currently healthy, but it is terrifying to draft an older running back who is currently hurt. It doesn't help that his offensive line may be one of the worst in the league as well.
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It is not easy to find a bust at wide receiver in CBS PPR ADP, because the drafts are so running back and quarterback-heavy at the top. The one receiver who does qualify is Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison is currently a Round 4 pick ahead of Xavier Worthy, DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, and a handful of other wide receivers I prefer. We have no indication that the Cardinals offensive plan has changed, which means we should still expect Trey McBride to lead the team in targets. I still believe in his talent, but in his role, he is not worth a Round 4 pick.
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