2025 Fantasy Football Breakouts 2.0: Heath Cummings pinpoints key veterans and rookie future league winners
These players can help you win your Championships in 2025
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5 min read
Out of Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts, Breakouts are by far the most exciting and the most fun to write about. They are also the only one of the three that is not dependent on ADP. Well, kind of. Because the term hasn't been strictly defined, we get a lot of people trying to put qualifiers on what a breakout pick should or shouldn't be. Most people agree it should be the best year of the player's career. Some think it must be a league-winning effort, while others decry breakout picks that already have an ADP in the first two rounds as boring. There is a danger that the term becomes overdefined and we don't get anything useful from the exercise. That won't be a problem for this article. Below I have four already elite players who could have career years, finish No. 1 at their position, and win you a league no matter where you draft them. After that, I will highlight one team that is full of breakout candidates. After that, you will find six more traditional breakout candidates, followed by four options who are being drafted later, are less likely to break out, but still possess the potential to win you a league. There is a breakout for everyone in this piece. Let's start at the top.
Already Elite, Potentially Even Better
Just because a player was the best at the position last year, it doesn't mean we've seen the best they've to offer. That should seem extremely clear in the case of Brock Bowers. Bowers scored more points than any other tight end in 2024. I expect him to be even better in Year 2. You may be wondering why that matters, and the reason is illustrated in our consensus rankings. I have Bowers at 12th overall, Jamey Eisenberg has him 19th, Dave Richard has him 26th. Jamey and Dave both prefer Trey McBride.
Why am I so much higher on Bowers? I think Geno Smith is a pretty big upgrade over Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell. I think Chip Kelly is a pretty big upgrade over Luke Getsy and Scott Turner. I don't see any of the Raiders additions cutting into Bowers' target share. And like McBride, Bowers was due for some pretty significant touchdown regression. He scored just five times on 153 targets last year. Over the past 10 years, there have been nine tight end seasons with at least 140 targets, the median touchdown total was nine. McBride and 2024 Evan Engram are the only tight ends to score fewer than Bowers' four last year. If the offense is better as expected, Bowers efficiency is better as expected, and he scores more touchdowns, he is absolutely worth a first round pick, and 100% a breakout, no matter how good he was last year.
Jayden Daniels is another second-year player who projects number one overall at his position for me. I would take him over Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen if I had to, but thankfully QBs don't usually go in Round 1, so my preferred strategy has been to just wait until Jackson and Allen are taken then scoop up Daniels. I expect the addition of Deebo Samuel to help him and I expect some development from him in his second season. Thirty points per game is within his range of possibilities and 25 should be the expectation.
The Dolphins' trade of Jonnu Smith puts De'Von Achane atop my running back projections as well. Achane sometimes falls to Round 2 of drafts, but he is a top five player in my top 200. Achane played all 17 games last year, held up over 281 touches, and still managed an impressive 5.3 yards per target. When Tua Tagovailoa was healthy he averaged more then 23 FPPG. Now, with Smith gone and the Dolphins insistent that Tagovailoa get the ball out quick, Achane has 100-target upside. I understand if you prefer Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley, especially if receptions aren't worth a full point, but you may regret passing on Achane with any pick, including number one overall.
While Bowers, Daniels, and Achane are all atop my PPR projections, there isn't a similar breakout pick at wide receiver. Ja'Marr Chase already did that last year, and I can't see any reason to expect anyone to be better than him. But if there is a surprise, I would bet on second-year wideout Malik Nabers. Like Bowers, he gets an enormous quarterback upgrade with Russell Wilson and Jaxson Dart replacing Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tim Boyle, and Tommy DeVito. Like Bowers, Nabers is a touchdown regression candidate after scoring seven times on 170 targets. Like Bowers, there is no incoming target competition that matters to Nabers. Expect 10 targets per game and don't be surprised if you get 10 touchdowns in the process. Nabers should be even better than his remarkable rookie season, and potentially better than several wide receivers getting drafted ahead of him.
The beautiful thing about this list? You could potentially draft Achane in Round 1, Bowers in Round 2, and Daniels in Round 3 and walk out of the draft with the top player at all three positions.
The Breakout Team of 2025
You knew it was the Bears, right? They have Ben Johnson who just took the Detroit Lions to places that were unthinkable before he got there. They have Caleb Williams, the number on overall pick in 2024 coming off of a dreadful rookie season. They have three very young, very talented pass catchers in Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland. Even DJ Moore and D'Andre Swift have the potential to have breakout campaigns in Johnson's system.
The best part is, as excited as we all are about this offense and what could be, the players are still relatively cheap. In early ADP Williams is QB11, Swift is RB27, Moore is WR24, and Loveland is TE9. Odunze and Burden are both available after Round 6. For the wide receivers, this may all come down to who wins the Amon-Ra St. Brown role in the offense, we'll be watching camp reports closely. They will also need Williams to have at least a mini-breakout. Swift may only need to stay healthy. The last time he played for Johnson he saw 70 targets in 14 games and finished as a top-16 RB on a per-game basis with only 99 rush attempts. That should show you that a top-12 season isn't all that unlikely.
Traditional Breakouts
Breakouts 20
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This isn't Fields first time in this space but it may be his last. This is a make-or-break season for fields who is reunited with college teammate Garrett Wilson in New York. His passer rating has gone up every year of his career and his sack rate and interception rates have gone down each of the last three years. If that trend continues, Fields' ability as a rusher gives him upside few QBs can match. In his last 17 starts he has rushed for 826 yards and eight touchdowns. He has averaged 20.7 FPPG in that stretch, but he's only thrown 464 passes and posted a paltry 4.0% TD rate.
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Jeanty's early ADP suggests you shouldn't expect him to fall out of the first round, though it does happen on occasion. There has been some debate over whether that means we are drafting him at his upside. To be clear, I rank him as a top-five running back and think his true upside is as the number one back in Fantasy Football. Chip Kelly's offense should be a plus for him and Jeanty has the skillset to succeed on all three downs. There is a reason he was the clear top back in a potentially historic running back class, he is that good. He has shown the ability to handle the ball 20-plus times per game and the ability to score from anywhere on the field. Don't hesitate to pull the trigger on this rookie in Round 1.
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The Seahawks are committed to running the ball more in 2025, they have made that clear this offseason. If Klint Kubiak's scheme produce more efficiency and Walker can stay healthy, his upside is almost unlimited. Walker unlocked a new skill last year, averaging almost five targets per game and has produced a 17-game pace of 11 touchdowns over his career. A season with 1,500 total yards, 50 catches, and double-digit touchdowns shouldn't surprise anyone.
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In full PPR Henderson is my second-favorite running back in the rookie class in both redraft and Dynasty. Paired with Josh McDaniels, he could see 70 targets in Year 1 and I expect him to be more explosive as a rusher than Rhamondre Stevenson. If Stevenson's fumble issues resurface, Henderson could be the lead back by midseason. Even if Stevenson holds on to a large share of the rushing work, Henderson could be a more explosive James White, who had a top-12 PPR season with McDaniels in the past.
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Don't sleep on Marvin Harrison because he didn't meet your expectations as a rookie. Several Hall of Fame wide receivers have produced less than Harrison did as a rookie. I still believe his skillset is more diverse than what Arizona asked him to do last year and I am hopeful their offense reflects that in 2025. Specifically, if Harrison sees more targets on in-breaking routes I believe he still has the ability to produce as a top-12 wide receiver in Fantasy. The downside for Fantasy is that if Harrison's route tree diversifies it may very well mean a decrease in targets for Trey McBride, who is a consensus top-two tight end. Or, it could mean the best season of Kyler Murray's career.
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You are getting a sneak peek at a potential rankings change on the horizon for Rice. As of July 1, he is still ranked as a low-end WR2 for me, close to where he is being drafted. But I am still factoring in some injury risk as he works back from knee surgery, and some risk his legal problems finally result in a suspension. If we get to July 23rd and Rice is practicing with no restrictions and nothing more has come to light about a potential court date, Rice could approach my top 12. In his last 13 healthy games with the Chiefs he has caught 93 passes for 1,068 yards and six scores. He is an enormous value in drafts right now if he's fully healthy for 17 games in 2025.
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Cheaper Breakout Candidates Who Could Be League Winners
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals
Javonte Williams, RB, Cowboys
Matthew Golden, WR, Packers
Tyler Warren, TE, Colts
