For a while there, Zack Wheeler looked like the very best bet you could have made in drafts this season. Despite coming off Thoracic Outlet syndrome surgery, he put up a 2.16 ERA through his first start after the All-Star break, capped off with a stretch where he averaged 10.8 strikeouts per start over a four-start span. He looked, for all intents and purposes, like the absolute best version of himself.
That was a month ago. A lot can happen in a month, and in Wheeler's case, what has happened is his season-long ERA has risen by more than a run in the past month. He got absolutely demolished by the Mariners Monday night, who put up eight runs on nine hits, five walks, and four home runs … in Seattle. Yikes.
It was just about the worst possible outcome you could get from a starting pitcher of Wheeler's caliber, and it pushed his season-long ERA to 3.40. In just a month, Wheeler has gone from third in the majors in ERA to 23rd. Sure, sure, you absolutely would have taken a 3.40 ERA from Wheeler when you drafted him; the run he is on is threatening to undo much of the good he did for your team in those first 16 starts. And we're very much at the point where you have to ask if he even deserves a spot in your lineup moving forward.
What makes this all confusing is that there isn't necessarily an obvious explanation for why things have gotten so bad for Wheeler. His velocity was down about 0.3 mph from his season-long average Monday, which is a pretty typical amount of variance for a single start. He also generated 15 swinging strikes on 103 pitches, a sign that the stuff is still viable.
The problem Monday was pretty clearly one of command and control. He had five walks, so that kind of goes without saying, but it's not just about walks; he also just caught too much of the zone too often, especially with his splitters down and his fastballs up.
And that's been the story throughout this whole stretch for Wheeler. His Stuff+ rating on FanGraphs.com has held steady around 105 pretty much all season (it is actually up a bit to 107 in this stretch, with 100 representing average), but his command rating. He put up a 108 Location+ mark through July 21, which would be tied for the sixth-best mark among all starters; in his previous five starts entering Monday, he was down to a 98, which would be a bottom-10 mark among all qualifiers for the season.
Of course, you'll still see names like Dylan Cease, Cade Cavalli, Cristopher Sanchez, and Nolan McLean at that mark or worse, so it's not like you can't overcome that. But you can't just assume that just because one pitcher (or, you know, four) can succeed with poor command, that every pitcher can. Wheeler has rated out well by that stat for as long as the data has existed, so it's reasonable to draw the conclusion that, while his command might not be terrible in a vacuum, it is uniquely poor for him.
Command fluctuates, of course, and if Wheeler's stuff still looks okay, he might be able to turn things around. Of course, you have to wonder if his stuff only looks okay because he has to exert more effort to get there in a way that is negatively affecting his command. That seems like an impossible theory to prove or disprove from where I'm sitting, but given what we've seen over the past month from Wheeler, I don't think we can just assume everything is fine right now.
Does that mean he's dealing with some unspecified or undiagnosed injury? Not necessarily, though we've seen Bryce Miller really struggle over the past couple of months and only recently reveal he has been pitching through an injury. And, given Wheeler's history over the past year, it definitely isn't out of the realm of possibility that there's something going on, even something relatively minor, that has thrown him off.
One thing is certain, though: You can't use Wheeler right now. He hasn't had a quality start in over a month and has an 8.17 ERA over his past six starts, with 16 walks – he had just 22 walks in his first 16 starts, by comparison. That includes poor outings against beatable matchups like the Marlins, Blue Jays, Cardinals, and Mariners; given that, even a matchup against the Angels feels too risky right now.
He could go out Sunday and absolutely shove. He could go out the next month and carry you to a championship. I wouldn't be shocked if he does – Wheeler has already made me look stupid for doubting him once this season. But the risk in trusting him right now outweighs the potential reward. July feels like it was a long time ago.
Pre-game Lineup Card
Here's what you might have missed from CBSSports.com's MLB coverage in recent days:
Kade Anderson's debut. Kade Anderson came to the majors with a ton of hype. Did he live up to it?
Power Rankings. Can the Brewers finally exorcise their playoff demons?
Mis Business. Dayn Perry breaks down what makes Jacob Misiorowski so dominant, and it's not just the fastball.
Worst-to-first. Which of the 2026 basement dwellers could turn things around and be contenders in 2027? Matt Snyder digs into the biggest disappointments.
Hitting the Wire
The top waiver-wire targets from Monday's action:
Calvin Faucher, RP, Marlins (2%) – The Marlins have stuck with Pete Fairbanks through a lot of struggles, but Faucher's chance might be coming after Fairbanks exited Monday's game with a nerve issue in his hand. It's the second time he has dealt with this issue this season, and the previous time saw him land on the IL for nearly three weeks. Faucher only got one of the Marlins' three saves during that span, so it's no guarantee he'll be an impact add, but he's probably the best candidate to step up if Fairbanks does have to go on the IL, and you could end up with a couple of saves out of him for your troubles.
Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Twins (34%) – I'm gonna be honest: I don't necessarily think George Lombard should be viewed that much differently than Culpepper for Fantasy. They were similar prospects before their debuts, and while Lombard's youth and approach at the plate make him a better bet as a long-term, real-life player, I'm not sure his profile is likely to be much better than Culpepper's, at least in Roto leagues. But Lombard is 72% rostered and Culpepper is less than half that, so there's definitely a buying opportunity here. Culpepper is hitting .340 with an .862 OPS after he went 4 for 5 Monday, and while his plate discipline isn't necessarily a strength, his 24% strikeout rate isn't too alarming. He's a fringe option in points leagues, but Culpepper looks like a pretty useful middle infielder in Roto leagues, at least.
Pedro Ramirez, 2B, Cubs (22%) – We've been hoping Ramirez would get a chance to play every day, and then when he finally did, he went ice cold. Bad timing, but he's starting to turn things around, with a three-hit game Sunday followed up by a two-hit game Monday, with a couple of extra-base hits across both games. On the whole, Ramirez is hitting .290/.347/.439 on the season with a full-season pace that would look something like 10 homers and 25 steals. He isn't a superstar, but Ramirez is a talented young hitter with a long runway now that Dansby Swanson is on the IL, so if you need help at either 2B or 3B, look his way.
Zebby Matthews, SP, Twins (38%) – Whoa, where did that come from? We've seen flashes from Matthews, but he was downright dominant Monday in Sacramento, limiting the A's to just one run over seven innings while striking out seven. He threw pretty much everything in his arsenal harder in this start, and it led to a whopping 23 swinging strikes – five more than his previous career high. The A's can be a tough matchup, especially at home, but they're also prone to swing-and-miss, so this is probably just one start where a guy was especially locked in against a strikeout-prone lineup. But Matthews was impressive enough to be worth a second look, at least in deeper leagues.
Mickey Gasper, C, Red Sox (5%) – This is probably a strictly short-term play, but Gasper has been in the lineup pretty regularly for the Red Sox since his return from Triple-A, and he's been very productive – he has 8 hits in seven games with three homers, 10 RBI, and four walks to just one strikeout. With Roman Anthony set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment this week, Gasper may be back in the minors by next week, but if you're in a daily league, Gasper could be worth a look as a second catcher to stream.
Three Up, Three Down
Three big performances that have players trending up, and three that have the arrow pointing in the opposite direction.
Three Up
Cal Raleigh finally showed signs of life
There's nothing Raleigh can do to salvage his season. But that doesn't mean he shouldn't try! How rough have things been for him? Well, Monday was his first multi-hit game since July 7, an astounding stretch of futility for last year's AL MVP runner-up. Of course, Monday wasn't just a multi-hit game, as Raleigh did much of the damage off Wheeler and ended up with the first three-homer game of his career. That gives him just 17 homers for the season, and still almost guarantees he'll end up with a career-low in homers – he would need 10 more in the final month to match his previous career-low mark. Still, it'd be nice to see him put together a great final month of the season to give us something to build on for 2027. For whatever it's worth, if Raleigh drops outside of the top 120 in drafts next season, I'll probably be in on him.
Cade Cavalli just keeps rolling
Cavalli is starting to look like one of the more interesting pitchers to rank for 2027. The former top prospect has finally managed to stay healthy and he has been nothing less than one of the best pitchers in baseball for the past few months. He turned in his ninth straight quality start Monday and has a 2.09 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in that span, with 64 strikeouts to just 12 walks. I can't fully buy into him at face value for 2026 when this is really the only time he has ever shown he can stay healthy as a starting pitcher, so if his price gets pushed into the top-25 range, I'll probably be out on him. But the skill set isn't really the concern for me, as he has a legit out pitch in his curveball and a full arsenal of at least decent pitches, with the peripherals to mostly back up his 3.21 ERA for the season.
Corey Seager is showing signs of life, too
Similar to Raleigh, Seager is mostly playing to rebuild his value for 2027 at this point, and I suspect his price is going to be even lower than Raleigh's. After all, he's 33 and has struggled to stay healthy and hasn't been very productive, which is the one thing you're supposed to be able to count on when he's on the field. But Seager is starting to show that he might not be totally washed up yet, hitting .355 with an OPS north of .900 in 21 games since his return from the IL. And the biggest thing might be that his strikeout rate is down to 16% in that stretch, compared to 27% before the injury. If Seager still has something left in the tank, he'll be an interesting later-round target in 2027, where his injury issues are going to be easier to stomach.
Three Down
Chase Burns might be near the end
Burns is about 25 innings past last season's career-high total, and you have to wonder if he isn't starting to run out of gas. He's starting to leak a bit of velocity, and it's starting to impact his effectiveness – after giving up five runs in 3.2 innings against the Giants Monday, he has now allowed five runs in two of his past four starts. Of course, outside of those two starts, Burns has mostly remained very effective, so maybe it's just two poor starts. But with the Reds largely out of the playoff race, it's fair to ask if the Reds are going to start limiting his innings. I don't think he's going to be shut down in the next week or two, but it wouldn't be a surprise if they decided to skip his last couple of starts. It's something to keep in mind down the stretch.
Framber Valdez didn't miss a single bat
Zero whiffs. Not one. Valdez threw 84 pitches and got 41 swings and didn't miss a single bat. He entered the start with the fifth-lowest swinging-strike rate of any starting pitcher, and that's only going to go down after this one. It's been an incredibly frustrating season for Valdez, who has just never managed to get going in his first season with the Tigers, and while I don't think he's totally finished as a useful Fantasy option, I don't think you need to keep him on your roster the rest of the season, either. He might tap into some of that former ace upside and make you regret it, but he's given you no reason to think that is coming at this point. If you're keeping Valdez around at this point, it's solely because of the name. Is that a good enough reason?
George Klassen took a step back
I know there has been some hype around Klassen after a couple of good starts, but I just don't see it. He wasn't terrible Monday against the Guardians, but he mostly just survived, allowing two earned runs (three runs total) over 5.1 innings while striking out just three and walking three. He's never had great control, and while there is some bat-missing upside here, it's mostly limited to when he throws his slider, which generated six of his eight whiffs in this one. That slider is a legit weapon and the four-seamer isn't terrible, but overall, I find Klassen's arsenal pretty underwhelming, and I don't view him as a priority target in leagues where he is available.
Extra Innings
Kevin Gausman dominated … with his fastball?
Gausman was excellent against the Diamondbacks Monday, but I'm not sure it was a game plan he should lean on moving forward. Gausman turned to his four-seam fastball 66% of the time (he was throwing it 51% of the time before this) and while he generated just two swinging strikes with it, he got 24 called strikes, a big reason why he was able to toss seven shutout innings. His feel for the pitch was unreal, but you can't count on that happening every time out, and Gausman is going to need to lean on his splitter a lot more moving forward to have a chance of replicating this. It was a great game plan and even better execution, but I'm not sure it's something Gausman is likely to build on.
