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USATSI

Full disclosure: Talking about relief pitchers is my least favorite part of Fantasy Baseball. Pitching is already tough enough to figure out when you're basing things on a 150-inning sample size and mostly just trying to figure out who the best pitchers are. Relief pitcher is an inherently volatile position, both in terms of performance — since pitchers often have limited control over their outcomes — and in terms of health.

Okay, great, now cut that sample size in half (at best). And then add in the fact that we're not just trying to figure out who the best pitchers are, but also which pitchers will be anointed by their manager as The Closer. Of course, it would be tough enough if we were just trying to figure out who will open the season as the closer, but we also have to try to weigh who has job security. Any individual piece of that is hard enough to predict; put them all together, and it's an almost impossible equation to solve.

2025 was a good example of that. Among the top 12 relievers in ADP entering the season, only five were actually helping you in the saves category by August or September: Edwin Diaz (RP4 in ADP), Raisel Iglesias (RP7), Andres Munoz (RP9), Jhoan Duran (RP10), and Robert Suarez (RP12). And even that overstates how much value most drafters got out of Iglesias, who lost his job mid-season and was likely dropped in many leagues before getting the closer job back. 

The reasons for failure among the other seven were varied and unpredictable. Emmanuel Clase, of course, is his own situation, and we'll likely never see him pitch in an MLB game after his alleged role in a gambling scheme. Josh Hader and Felix Bautista got hurt, which could happen to anyone – though in Bautista's case, his elevated draft position was already a mistake, given the injury concerns coming into the season. Devin Williams pitched so poorly that he simply lost his job, while Mason Miller and Ryan Helsley were deadline additions to teams that already had established closers and found themselves demoted after their trades.  

You can come up with reasons why we should or should not have been able to see any of those coming, but the point is, the margins are inherently small here. Iglesias lost his job in early June on the strength of 24 bad innings – or the equivalent of four good starts or five to six poor starts. That he was able to right the ship and allow just a 1.25 ERA over his next 43.1 innings shouldn't exactly come as a surprise, since 24 innings just isn't a particularly compelling sample size. If your opinion about a player is changing based on a sample size that small, you're probably overreacting.

But relief pitcher is the one position where you almost have to overreact to small samples, otherwise you can't react at all. It's also a position that feels especially unsettled ahead of the offseason, with as many as 20 closer jobs seemingly up for grabs. No matter what you think about the state of things in November, it's likely to change considerably by the time February and March roll around. 

2025 Relief Pitcher Review

  1. Aroldis Chapman, BOS: 61.1 - 1.17 - 85 - 32 - 0.70
  2. Edwin Diaz, NYM: 66.1 - 1.63 - 98 - 28 - 0.87
  3. Robert Suarez, SD: 69.2 - 2.97 - 75 - 40 - 0.90
  4. Jhoan Duran, PHI: 70 - 2.06 - 80 - 32 - 1.10
  5. Andres Munoz, SEA: 62.1 - 1.73 - 83 - 38 - 1.03
  6. Carlos Estevez, KC: 66 - 2.45 - 54 - 42 - 1.06
  7. Josh Hader, HOU: 52.2 - 2.05 - 76 - 28 - 0.85
  8. Drew Rasmussen, TB: 150 - 2.76 - 127 - 0 - 1.02
  9. David Bednar, NYY: 62.2 - 2.30 - 86 - 27 - 1.04
  10. Jeff Hoffman, TOR: 68 - 4.37 - 84 - 33 - 1.19
  11. Cade Smith, CLE: 73.2 - 2.93 - 104 - 16 - 1.00
  12. Adrian Morejon, SD: 73.2 - 2.08 - 70 - 3 - 0.90

Biggest Breakout from 2025

Aroldis Chapman

It would be natural to refer to this more as a "return to form" for Chapman, but you could make the case that this was arguably the best version of him we've ever seen. Okay, sure, the strikeout rate wasn't quite as gaudy as it was early in his career, but 37.3% is still an extremely healthy mark. Especially when coupled with a walk rate nearly half his career mark, plus the best quality of contact of his career, leading to a 2.06 xERA that Chapman has bested only once since 2015. Is betting on that bounceback to sustain into his age-38 season the smart bet? Probably not, and Chapman has moved up significantly in drafts so far, ranking as the No. 6 reliever in early NFBC drafts with an ADP of 68.2. He'll go later than that in most drafts, but Chapman is clearly going to cost a lot more than he has in recent years, and given the year-to-year volatility, it probably makes more sense to fade him this year than buy in. 

Biggest Bust from 2025

Emmanuel Clase

There's no lesson to learn here. Clase was arguably the best reliever in baseball, and then he was placed on administrative leave in the middle of the season as part of an investigation into sports betting. He was recently indicted by the Eastern District of New York for his part in a sports betting scheme and will almost certainly never pitch in MLB again. 

But that one's a bummer, and there's nothing we can really take away from it, so let's look at someone else here. As mentioned earlier, there is unfortunately no shortage of options to choose from. 

Devin Williams 

Williams came back from a serious back injury in 2024 and looked like himself. When he started pitching for the Yankees as the closer to open the 2025 season, he also mostly looked like himself. His fastball was within one mph of where it has been since 2022, for example, while his changeup continued to defy physics. He struck 35% of opposite hitters and walked just 9.7%, his best rate since 2020 … and he was awful. He finished the season with a 4.79 ERA and lost the closer's job a few weeks into the season; when the Yankees tried him back in that role again, things went better for a month or two, but he was bad enough in the summer months that the Yankees felt they had to completely rebuild their bullpen at the deadline. 

Williams' underlying skills weren't nearly as unsightly as his actual production, and some team is going to convince themselves this offseason that he should be a closer again. And you know what: I agree! I'll buy the dip on Williams if he ends up closing somewhere. I still think he can be a must-start Fantasy option. 

Biggest rankings movers from 2025 to 2026

Up: Andres Munoz; Aroldis Chapman; David Bednar; Cade Smith

In Muñoz's case, the Mariners simply stopped treating him like a fireman and started treating him like a more traditional closer. He was as dominant as ever and bumped his save total from 22 to 38 as a result, and we expect that usage to remain. He's one of the best closers in baseball, though notably, he hasn't quite shown that 100-strikeout upside we're looking for from the truly elite options in Fantasy in a few years. 

The Yankees have the kind of resources that make it hard to assume even a very good reliever will remain the closer forever, but I do think it's probably safe to assume Bednar will be the closer in 2026. He bounced back from a miserable 2024 with a 2.30 ERA and 12.4 K/9 and should be closing for a 90-plus win team, so while there is some risk that he stumbles again, I have enough faith in Bednar to rank him as a top-12 option, at least. 

Smith probably just needs to be a top-five closer for 2026. He only has 17 career saves, but he has been one of the best relievers in baseball since entering the league – by FIP, he's been the best over the past two seasons combined, and he's top-12 by ERA, too. Elite strikeouts, great control, and he pitches for a team that has created multiple 40-save seasons in recent years. He very well could be the best closer in fantasy. 

Down: Devin Williams; Ryan Helsley; Raisel Iglesias

Iglesias should come at a slight discount relative to recent years in 2026 drafts, and as long as he ends up somewhere as a closer, it's a discount you should be willing to take. His skill set has slipped a bit in recent seasons, but his 3.21 ERA was backed up by a 3.17 xERA and 3.31 FIP in 2025, so it's not like there's been a giant collapse. Iglesias played a big part in the Braves' early-season struggles in 2025, but he still has the look of a reliable closer, if not quite an elite one anymore. 

Helsley was apparently tipping his pitches when he got to the Mets, which helps explain his disastrous results after the deadline. Is that going to be enough to convince some team to make him their closer this offseason? I'd be willing to bet on it, and I'd be willing to bet on Helsley bouncing back in 2026 if he gets that chance. Expecting him to return to being an elite closer again might be risky, but if his price remains outside of the top-150 on Draft Day, it's a bet I'm willing to make. 

Offseason preview

Who needs an upgrade most? 

So … half the league? There are closer candidates in many of those places, such as Toronto, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't and won't seek an upgrade – the Blue Jays have already hinted at as much. The focus should obviously be on the contenders of this group, like the Blue Jays, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers, and we expect Edwin Diaz to end up on at least one of these teams.

An interesting situation is San Diego's. Robert Suarez is a free agent, but they still have Mason Miller in-house as arguably the dominant bullpen arm. But with big question marks in the rotation, there has been plenty of buzz that the Padres will look to use him as a starting pitcher. Nobody in San Diego presumably cares about my opinion on this, but … this would be a terrible idea. Dating back to his days in college, Miller has managed to make double-digit starts just three times in nine seasons, including just 13 in 2023 between the majors and minors, when he dealt with a sprained UCL almost immediately upon his promotion to the majors. 

There is basically no evidence that Miller can hold up to a starter's workload in his career. I know the Padres had recent success with another reliever-to-starter transition, but the key difference is, MIchael King had thrown 100-plus innings on four separate occasions by that point; Miller has never even reached 95. If Miller does transition to the rotation, I think he'll be on my "Do-Not-Draft" list. 

Top impending free agents

Most of these guys will end up closing somewhere, and they'll have value if they do. Diaz and Suarez in particular will likely be top-12 options wherever they land, and Jansen, Fairbanks, and Iglesias won't be far from that range, either.

Williams is probably the most interesting name here, because I could see him settling for a one-year, prove-it deal and absolutely shoving. As noted earlier, I don't think there was a dramatic drop-off in talent here, so the possibility of a bounce-back season is tantalizing at what should be a significantly discounted price. He might just be cooked, of course, but if you don't want to pay the price for an elite closer, you have to take on some risk. Williams could be worth the risk. 

Trade candidates

There are a lot more than this, of course, but these are some of the big names who could potentially land in a spot where they could figure into the closer role. Scott and Hoffman could still begin the 2026 season as their respective team's top closer options, of course, though that seems unlikely given how their 2025 seasons ended.