We've reached Week 4 of the NFL season, and with 14 games on the schedule for Sunday, that's 14 games where underdogs can make some noise. We saw some major upsets last Sunday with the Washington Commanders knocking off the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos beating the Los Angeles Rams. What do underdogs have in store for us this weekend? Bet on the NFL and more at FanDuel, where new users can get up to $250 in bonus bets:
We've fired up the SportsLine Projection Model to break down Sunday's NFL games. The model entered Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season on a 54-43 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns. Bet the NFL at BetMGM and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:
Best underdogs for NFL Week 4
- Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Denver Broncos +2.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Carolina Panthers +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions
Jaguars vs. Bengals: Jaguars +2.5
The Jaguars gave the Patriots a 35-6 shellacking in Week 3 and now head to Cincinnati as the first-place team in the AFC South. The Bengals have allowed the ninth-most yards in the league through three weeks, which should have Liam Coen licking his lips. Asking Jacksonville to keep this within a field goal (or to win outright) certainly doesn't feel unreasonable. The Jags cover in 55% of the SportsLine model's simulations.
Broncos vs. 49ers: Broncos +2.5
An impressive win over the Rams on Sunday Night Football has the Broncos 2-1 as they head to Santa Clara. While Bo Nix still looks shaky, Denver has the pieces to win tough football games, and this matchup with the 3-0 49ers certainly qualifies as one. Brock Purdy is playing like an MVP candidate but the Denver defense has the talent to slow him. The SportsLine model has the Broncos covering at a 51% rate and winning in 46% of the simulations.
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Panthers vs. Lions: Panthers +3.5
The Panthers are 1-2 but the one win was a major blowout, a 34-3 whitewashing of the Falcons. There's clearly some talent in the Carolina offense. That unit will be under pressure to keep the Panthers in the game against the Lions. Carolina can be heartened by the fact that Detroit has allowed the second-most yards in the league thus far. This could be a shootout, but the Lions have a habit of keeping their opponents alive in those sorts of games. The Panthers cover in 52% of the SportsLine model's simulations and win outright in 44%.
