NFL predictions: What's on the line in Chargers vs. Raiders in Week 2 on Monday Night Football?

The Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders have been embroiled in a rivalry that dates back to 1960, when they both made their debut in the now-defunct American Football League. The Chargers spent that season in Los Angeles before moving to San Diego for a 56-year stay, while the Raiders began in Oakland, relocated to L.A., then returned to Oakland before landing in Las Vegas in 2020.

Each team has enjoyed dominant stretches in the all-time series, which, including one playoff matchup, the Raiders lead 69-60-2. The Chargers began the feud in 1960 with six consecutive victories, posted a 13-game winning streak from 2003-09 and won six of seven meetings from 2012-14. Meanwhile, the Raiders went on a 19-1-2 run from 1966-77 that included a 10-game winning streak, won seven straight meetings from 1982-88 and took eight of nine from 1997-2001.

The Chargers swept the two-game season series last year, Jim Harbaugh's first as the team's head coach following a nine-year tenure at the University of Michigan that culminated in 2023 with a national championship. Los Angeles went 11-6 in Harbaugh's initial campaign with the club, which was its second-highest win total since it last finished atop the AFC West in 2009 with a 13-3 record.

Even though the Chargers came up with a disappointing performance in their loss to the Houston Texans in the wild card round, the expectations for the club this year are high. Some of the excitement surrounding the team stems from the belief that the Kansas City Chiefs are ripe for the taking in regard to the division title, which they have captured nine years in a row.

The Chargers' effort in the 2025 season opener only escalated their fans' hopes. Justin Herbert threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns as Los Angeles posted a 27-21 victory over Kansas City in Sao Paulo, Brazil, ending its seven-game losing streak in their all-time series.

"The way No. 10 put us on his back, he's been working since that last playoff game," Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. said of Herbert after the win. "I know he's going to carry us this year."

Harbaugh's squad hopes for another strong effort from Herbert when it visits the Raiders on Monday Night Football in Week 2. The 27-year-old has had some of the best games of his career against Las Vegas, throwing for over 300 yards five times while also accounting for three touchdown on five occasions while winning six of nine contests. 

With the expectations high for the Chargers and low for the Raiders despite their Week 1 win against the New England Patriots in Pete Carroll's debut as the team's head coach, SportsLine's Inside the Lines team has crunched the numbers and determined what's at stake for both teams on Monday night. The ITL team, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024, currently lists the Chargers as the club with the best chance of winning the AFC West this year.

The ITL team's projection model says Los Angeles takes the division crown in 36.8% of its simulations, with the Denver Broncos winning it 33.1% of the time and Kansas City earning its 10th straight title in 23.7% of simulations. The Raiders, who haven't finished first in the AFC West since 2002, are a distant fourth at 6.4%.

According to the model, a victory on Monday night would increase the Chargers' division chances by close to 6%, but a loss would reduce them by more than 12%. Meanwhile, the Raiders' outlook would improve by almost 4% with a victory but decrease by 3.5% with a defeat.

The difference between a win and a loss is much more substantial for Los Angeles in regard to the division title and a bit more consequential when it comes to earning a postseason berth.

Based on their performance in their season-opening 20-13 triumph over New England, the Raiders may put up a better fight against the Chargers on Monday than they did last season. Los Angeles began the 2024 campaign with a 22-10 home victory against its bitter rival and cruised to a 34-20 win at Las Vegas in the regular-season finale.

Geno Smith, who played for Carroll in Seattle from 2019-23, passed for 362 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots in his Raiders debut. Considering their history together, Carroll was not surprised by Smith's effort in the least.

"Somebody said this was a breakout game for him. It wasn't at all," Pete Carroll told reporters last Monday. "That's how Geno plays – 70.0 (completion percentage), 300-something (passing yards), whatever. That's how he plays, and he'll have bigger games going forward."

The Chargers are hoping one of those bigger games doesn't take place Monday. They limited Patrick Mahomes to a completion percentage of 61.5% in Week 1 and will need to have similar success against Smith in order to keep their chances for both a playoff appearance and a division title from taking a significant hit. 

Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite in the consensus odds, and the ITL team's model is leaning toward a cover by the Chargers, projecting them to post a 24-20 victory.