NFL predictions: How Bills vs. Texans Week 12 Thursday Night Football matchup impacts playoff picture
According to SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and Projection Model, the Texans have more at stake on Thursday than the Bills
The Houston Texans have won the AFC South the last two seasons, reaching the Divisional Round of the playoffs both years.
This season, they have rebounded from an 0-3 start to climb back to 5-5. They are now only one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars for third and final wild card spot in the AFC.
But, as Houston hosts Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the Thursday Night Football game, the Texans' playoff hopes are on thinner ice than "one game behind" suggests.
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According to SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, Houston enters Week 12 with just a 20.5% chance to make the postseason. That ranks 10th among the AFC teams.
| Current playoff chances | |
| Patriots | 98.9% |
| Broncos | 97.6% |
| Colts | 95.8% |
| Bills | 92.0% |
| Chargers | 60.4% |
| Ravens | 60.4% |
| Jaguars | 59.7% |
| Chiefs | 57.7% |
| Steelers | 56.3% |
| Texans | 20.5% |
With a loss, that probability crashes to 12.2%. With a victory it rises to 33.3%.
Why is the model so low on Houston's chances to reach the playoffs? The schedule. Beginning with Thursday's game, the Texans have five games remaining against teams that are .500 or better. That includes this upcoming three-week gauntlet against the Bills, Colts and Chiefs. Only nine teams in the league have a harder remaining strength of schedule than Houston (52.8%).
| Remaining strength of schedule | |
| Bears | 57.2% |
| Panthers | 57.0% |
| Packers | 56.0% |
| Colts | 55.9% |
| Steelers | 55.7% |
| Vikings | 55.2% |
| Chargers | 54.2% |
| Commanders | 53.4% |
| Cardinals | 53.0% |
| Texans | 52.8% |
So on Thursday, urgency will be at a premium.
"I think we've really echoed in the building every game to us is a must-win," Houston quarterback Davis Mills said Tuesday. Mills will start his third straight game in place of CJ Stroud, who is still recovering from a concussion he suffered in the Week 9 loss against the Broncos.
The Texans are 5.5-point underdogs against the Bills.
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Meanwhile, Buffalo has more to lose than gain on Thursday. According to the model, the Bills' chances to reach the playoffs (92.0%) and win the AFC East (20.7%) fall more with a loss than they rise with a victory.
| Bills' chance to ... | Entering Week 12 | With win | With loss |
| Make playoffs | 92.0% | 97.0% | 83.1% |
| Win AFC East | 20.7% | 26.7% | 10.9% |
But the numbers show that Houston has more at stake on Thursday.
"I don't know the scenarios," Texans coach DeMeco Ryan said. "I never talk about a scenario. It's football, and that doesn't change to me no matter what. It doesn't matter honestly. When the ball is snapped no one is thinking, 'Oh we're going to play harder because of a standing.'"
