NFL picks: Jerry Jeudy prop among SportsLine expert's best bets for Week 11

Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season features a number of key matchups, including one between a pair of NFC division leaders as the reigning Super Bowl champions Philadelphia Eagles host the Detroit Lions. Philadelphia (7-2) sits comfortably atop the NFC East and enters this week with a three-game winning streak after edging the Green Bay Packers 10-7 last Monday. That Eagles victory was helpful for Detroit (6-3), which is tied with the Chicago Bears for first place in the NFC North - just a half game ahead of Green Bay.

For Sunday's matchup between the Lions and Eagles, top sportsbooks have set the receiving yards prop for Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown at 77.5 yards, while Saquon Barkley of Philadelphia has his rushing yards prop set at 70.5. 

Before you play a side on St. Brown, Barkley or any player prop for Week 11 of the NFL season, you need to see what SportsLine player prop expert PropBetGuy has to say. The expert is +274 on his last 31 NFL player prop picks. Here are his picks and analysis.

Jerry Jeudy Under 18.5 yards longest reception (-112, FanDuel)

Jeudy has gone Under this long reception line in four of the five games started by Browns quarterback Dillon Gabriel this season.

While he did reel in a 22-yard catch last week, it was only the second reception that's traveled at least 15 air yards out of 20 targets from Gabriel.

The Ravens aren't necessarily the best target for a receiver Under matchup-wise, but the weather is poised to play a significant factor in this one, with 25 mile-per-hour sustained winds expected. Gabriel's arm strength is well below average, and I'm not expecting any downfield success. This is playable down to Under 17.5 yards for me.

Nick Chubb Over 30.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)

I'm not completely buying the workload split between Chubb and Woody Marks from last week, in which Chubb only had five touches. The Texans' coaching staff insisted that was a product of the game script, which saw the Texans trailing by two-plus scores virtually the entire game.

While Marks is the first option, Chubb still should have a role in what should be a more suitable matchup. Not only do the Titans allow the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs, but they also rank 28th in DVOA against the run (per FTN).

I'd bet this up to Over 33.5 yards.

Tatum Bethune Over 8.5 tackles + assists (-114, DraftKings)

Bethune has recorded at least 10 tackles in five straight games. He has been everywhere defensively for the 49ers, wearing the blue dot in the absence of All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner. 

The Cardinals have been more efficient offensively with Jacoby Brissett taking the snaps - and they'll be without big-play threat Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendix) on Sunday.  I'm expecting more checkdowns in the passing game, which should increase Bethune's tackle opportunities.