How a Tyreek Hill trade would change the Super Bowl odds for the Chiefs, Packers and other contenders

Tyreek Hill is as blunt as he is fast.

On Sunday, after the Miami Dolphins' embarrassing 33-8 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, the Dolphins receiver gave his assessment of the team's performance.

"This was a big kick in the balls for us," he said.

How big? Miami, a team built on speed and a big-play offense, managed just 211 yards of total offense, including a woeful 133 passing, committed three turnovers and didn't score until the fourth quarter when the Colts already led 30-0. Hill had just four receptions for 40 yards and zero touchdowns. His streak of consecutive games without a reception longer than 30 yards grew to 17. At one point during the contest, he was sitting on the sideline with a member of the coaching staff, visibly frustrated.

Hill and the team's Week 1 performance—as well as Tuesday's reported allegations of domestic violence—only amped up predictions by Monday morning quarterbacks that the receiver's days with the Dolphins are numbered. After last season's regular-season finale against the New York Jets, Hill told reporters he was "opening the door" to playing elsewhere and eventually changed his social media profile picture to one of his face on the body of Antonio Brown from when a disgruntled Brown infamously ran off the field during a game for the Buccaneers in 2022, forcing his way out of Tampa Bay.

Two months ago, Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said Hill was still in the process of rebuilding trust with the team.

The Dolphins obviously do not have to trade Hill, who is signed through the 2026 season. But if the team continues to play like it did Sunday and is trending to miss the playoffs for a second straight year, then the advantages of shipping the receiver out of South Florida may exceed the advantages of keeping him. He is due to make $36 million next year with a cap number of $51.9 million.

If the Dolphins do trade Hill before the Nov. 5 deadline, what NFL team would best improve its Super Bowl chances by adding a player with the skillset of the Cheetah? The team at SportsLine came up with 12 teams that could use a receiver like Hill (the 49ers, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Falcons, Jets, Packers, Panthers, Raiders, Seahawks, Texans and Titans) and had the SportsLine Projection Model crunch the numbers.

According to the model, no team would benefit more than Hill's former squad, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs (0-1) are badly in need of a downfield threat after second-year burner Xavier Worthy suffered a dislocated shoulder in the season-opening loss to the Chargers that will force him to miss an undetermined amount of time. Kansas City also is without receiver Rashee Rice, who will miss five more games after being suspended for violating the league's personal conduct policy.

Assuming Worthy has to miss two months of the season—Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Monday Worthy is "day-to-day"—the model gives Kansas City a 1.70% chance of winning the Super Bowl. But with Hill, that number improves to 4.10%. The 2.40% improvement is the biggest of the 12 teams but only slightly ahead of the Packers (2.38%).

If Worthy misses no more than two games, then the Chiefs' Super Bowl winning percentage rises to 2.96% before a hypothetical trade for Hill.

Kansas City trading for Hill makes sense on many levels. Hill was drafted by and played his first six seasons (2016-21) for the Chiefs, posting six Pro Bowl campaigns, scoring 62 touchdowns and establishing himself as arguably the league's most explosive weapon. Unable to reach a team-friendly contract extension with Hill, Kansas City traded him in the 2022 offseason to Miami, which immediately gave him a four-year, $120 million extension, making him the highest paid receiver in NFL history. 

The Chiefs have been looking for a go-to wide receiver ever since and have a history of acquiring a wideout at the trade deadline—including Kadarius Toney (in 2022), Mecole Hardman ('23) and DeAndre Hopkins ('24). Perhaps Hill is that receiver in 2025.