The Jacksonville Jaguars appeared to hit a grand slam last offseason by hiring former Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen as their new head coach. He led the Jags to 13 wins as they won the AFC South title for the first time since 2022 â which had been the last time the team made the playoffs. What should we expect from QB Trevor Lawrence and Co. this season? Bettors are DraftKings are certainly high on the group. Fans interested in futures betting on the best betting apps need to follow our NFL news page, and bettors can find picks from the SportsLine Projection Model and our experts for the 2026 NFL season.
Note that Jacksonville hosts Carolina on Friday night in Week 2 of the preseason, but the only thing I will say about that is Coen says he plans to play Lawrence and his starters "a couple drives, potentially" after none played in the exhibition opener. Previously, Coen had said he had no intention of putting his first-team offense or defense at risk in any of these games. Coen made it clear no starters would then play in the finale.
Was last season a fluke, and is Coen perhaps a one-hit wonder? I'll give you a great fairly recent example of an offensive-minded head coach who thrived in Year 1 and was never close to that guy again: Former Bears coach Matt Nagy. He went 12-4 in 2018 and never posted another winning season. I wouldn't say one-hit wonders are regular, but they're not uncommon. It's part of the reason there are only five head coaches left in the league who were hired by their teams before 2021.
Incidentally, Coen wasn't even the Jaguars' first choice to be head coach, as that was former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, but thank goodness my Bears were able to get him. In almost any other season, Coen could have won the NFL Coach of the Year Award, considering he was only the 11th rookie head coach since the 1970 merger to win at least 12 regular-season games. Alas, Mike Vrabel practically worked a miracle with the Patriots, so he got the nod and Coen finished second.
For this year's COY, Coen is a +2500 longer shot as obviously it's going to be tough improving upon last season. But know this: eight of the previous 10 on that list of successful rookie coaches got to double-digit victories in Year 2. And of the six previous rookie head coaches in NFL history to win at least 13 games, five of the six got to at least 10 victories in their second season.
Jacksonville is set at Over/Under 9.5 wins, +3000 to win the Super Bowl, +1500 to win the AFC for the first time, +245 second-favorites in the AFC South behind Houston (+110) and +105 to return to the playoffs, with No at -125. Jacksonville seeks back-to-back postseason appearances for the first time 1998-99, which is the third-longest active drought in the league.
DraftKings Sportsbook bettors are definitely high on this team, as the Jags are taking about 51% of total handle to win the division. And on DK's AFC South finishing position prop, Jacksonville is the most-bet team via handle and tickets to finish first. In fact, the Jags are taking the seventh-most handle in the league to make the playoffs compared to 31st in money to miss.
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts the club for 9.6 wins, a 61.0% chance to make the playoffs, 27.4% to win the division, 9.6% for it first conference title and 4.7% to win the Super Bowl.
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It seemed like it took about half of last season for things to click in Coen's offense, as that unit ranked 18th in scoring through the club's first nine games. The Jags were 5-4 in those games. But in the season-ending eight-game winning streak, the offense led the NFL in scoring at 33.6 PPG and in point differential at +19.1, the best by any team in its final eight games of a regular season since the 2019 Baltimore Ravens.
Lawrence had 24 total touchdowns during that run -- which led the league -- and only six turnovers. He became the third QB in league history after Drew Brees (2019) and Aaron Rodgers (2020) with at least 19 total touchdowns and one or fewer turnovers in the final six games of a season. Lawrence is +2500 for NFL MVP (pretty good price), +1800 to lead the NFL in passing yards and +1600 in passing TDs. On his passing yardage total of 3,774.5 yards, 87% of tickets and 84% of handle are on Over.
One big catalyst to that season-ending run was acquiring wideout Jakobi Meyers in a trade from Las Vegas in what turned out to be an utter steal. Myers led the Jaguars in targets (61), receptions (42) and receiving yards (483) from Week 10-18 last season. In fact, that yardage total was the most in NFL history by a player making his team debut in Week 10 or later. Myers was set for free agency, but the team quickly extended him.
Notice that I haven't even mentioned former Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, whom the Jags traded up to No. 2 overall in the 2025 draft to select. While Hunter became the first player this century with at least 200 receiving yards and 10+ tackles in a season, it was a disappointing season because Hunter missed the final 10 games (and playoff loss) due to knee surgery.
The apparent plan for this season is for Hunter to be a full-time cornerback and the No. 3 receiver. The Jaguars appear in pretty good shape on offense, so if Hunter can become the shutdown cornerback he was at Colorado, then suddenly that defense looks that much better. And I think it's the pass defense that determines this season, because the run defense is stellar. It allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the league last year at 85.6. It became only the fifth defense since 1970 to not allow a 75-yard rusher.
Jacksonville opens the season Sept. 13 at home vs. Cleveland and is a 7.5-point favorite. If the Jags were to be upset, their season win total drops to 8.87 via the model and their playoff chances drop by 13.5%. I seriously doubt they lose, but maybe we get Hunter picking off a pass from his former Buffs teammate Shedeur Sanders, if he can beat out Deshaun Watson in Cleveland's starting quarterback battle.
