Upset alert in NFL Week 7? Why these five favorites could fall, including Jared Goff and the Lions

Hard to believe, but we're already in the middle of October and on the doorstep of Week 7 in the NFL. This is the period where teams start to separate from one another and either prove that they are a playoff threat or are building toward 2026 if they fall by the wayside. 

Through the first chunk of the year, upsets have been a common theme, including in Week 6. There, we accurately predicted that the Seahawks would upset the Jaguars on the road. Meanwhile, Monday night saw a pair of upsets with the Falcons taking down the Bills and the Bears outlasting the Commanders. 

Where will the upsets come in Week 7? Let's try and sift through all the madness and identify a handful of favorites that could be ripe for an upset. 

NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL at FanDuel and get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager. You can get started here:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-5.5)

• When: Monday, 7 p.m. ET | Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
• TV: ESPN | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Buccaneers ML odds: +198

When healthy, both of these teams are among the biggest threats in the NFC. The problem is that they continue to be battling injuries at key areas of the roster. For the Lions, their depleted secondary was exposed against Kansas City in Week 6, and will not have star defensive back Brian Branch for this game after he was suspended for starting a fight at the end of that contest. That only further pushes them behind the eight-ball at stopping the pass. Meanwhile, the Bucs wide receiver group is also dinged up, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka all questionable. However, even if one of them suits up in Week 7, that could be enough for Baker Mayfield to have similar results that Patrick Mahomes had a week ago. Speaking of Mayfield, his 12 upset wins since joining the Buccaneers are the most in the NFL (since 2023).

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Jeff Kerr

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minnesota)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Vikings ML odds: +114

The Eagles look lost at the moment. While a lot of the attention is being paid to the offensive side of the ball, let's not ignore the defense either. Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo of the New York Giants lit them up for 34 points in Week 6. Now, they are expected to fend off a Vikings offense headlined by Justin Jefferson after resting up on the bye the week prior? Okay, let's talk about the Eagles offense. As a team, they are being outscored 52-17 over the last five quarters, and rank 30th in the NFL in yards per game (274.5) on the season. This is hardly a get-right spot for the unit as they will face a Vikings defense that ranks fifth in the NFL in points per game (19.4), sixth in yards per game (289.8), and second on third down (30% conversion rate). Minnesota is also 4-1 as an underdog since the start of last season, which includes a 2-0 record as a home dog. 

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

• When: 8:20 p.m. ET | Where: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara)
• TV: NBC | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Falcons ML odds: +110

The hits keep coming to the 49ers on the defensive side of the ball. The latest devastating injury comes with Fred Warner, who is out for the season due to an ankle injury he suffered last week. Warner is a first-team All-Pro talent, so this is a monumental loss for a Niners team that can't afford to lose many bodies on that side of the ball. That ailing unit now faces a Falcons offense that has explosive playmakers like Drake London and Bijan Robinson at their disposal to help exploit their deficiencies. Atlanta is fresh off an upset win over Buffalo, and has done well in this spot. The Falcons have won four of their last five prime-time games, including a 2-0 record this season. Meanwhile, the Niners are 3-6 in their last nine games at home.  

Carolina Panthers (-1.5) at New York Jets

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Jets ML odds: +108

The Jets actually opened as the favorite in this matchup, but the odds have swung entirely in the opposite direction. It's hard to blame bettors after seeing New York's offense founder in London in Week 6, but let's not entirely rule out the possibility of the Jets notching their first win here. While it was masked due to poor play from the offense, the Jets defense and special teams units were solid against the Broncos and had them in range of an upset. That defense now faces a Panthers offense that is a wildly different team on the road than they are at home. This season, Carolina is 0-3 on the road and is averaging 15 points per game on offense while the defense is surrendering 31.7 points per game. If those trends continue, the Jets may not need Justin Fields to throw it around the yard in order to win. 

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-3)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Dolphins ML odds: +134

The Dolphins feel like they are teetering. They are 1-5, and Tua Tagovailoa just called out the leadership on his team after last week's defeat against the Los Angeles Chargers. Their defense has also struggled mightily, allowing 29.0 points per game this season. So, why are we identifying them as a possible upset candidate? The Browns offense continues to be middling even after the switch to Dillon Gabriel at quarterback. Over the last two weeks, Gabriel's completion percentage (57%) and yards per attempt (4.8) are last in the NFL. If that continues, this will be a tight enough game where one or two throws from Tagovailoa could be enough to pull away. This is the first game Cleveland is favored this season, after going 0-4 as a favorite in 2024.