Top NFL turnaround candidates: Best bets to go from last place to first place in division
SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman shares his NFL predictions and futures picks for which two teams could go from last place to division champions
NFL teams finishing in last place and then in first place the next season has become more common since the league realigned to eight four-team divisions in 2002. There are roughly 1.1 worst-to-first teams per season. While a team didn't pull it off in 2024, it was just the third season since the realignment without a worst-to-first team.
I'm expecting a return to normalcy this season. I've identified two best bets for 2024 last-place teams that could climbg all the way back to the top of their respective divisions. Click here for more on how to bet on the NFL.
Tennessee Titans
Rookie quarterback Cam Ward, selected with the first overall pick, is the most significant catalyst for Tennessee's improvement. He has consistently improved throughout his football career and looks outstanding in camp. Ward brings exceptional accuracy and pocket presence that fit perfectly with head coach Brian Callahan's West Coast offensive system. Ward's ability to escape will turn third-and-six situations into first downs. The quarterback is already taking the majority of first-team reps in training camp, positioning him to start in Week 1.
The Titans invested in protecting their rookie quarterback by signing left tackle Dan Moore Jr. to a four-year, $82 million contract and adding veteran guard Kevin Zeitler. With returning players Lloyd Cushenberry, Peter Skoronski, and JC Latham, the offensive line could become a team strength in 2025. Tennessee significantly improved its roster during the offseason by adding key veterans. The team acquired three experienced players during the offseason. If they remain healthy, wide receiver Tyler Lockett, safety Xavier Woods, and defensive lineman Dre'Mont Jones will likely make an impact. Their draft strategy prioritized both immediate needs and future potential. Notable selections like edge rusher Oluwafemi Oladejo and safety Kevin Winston Jr. are expected to start in Week 1.
Defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson enters his second season with valuable experience and new personnel additions. The defense finished second in total yards allowed last season despite ranking 22nd overall, suggesting underlying potential that wasn't reflected in points allowed due to poor offensive field position and turnovers.
Ward's immediate impact, the league's fourth-easiest schedule, improved offensive line play and AFC South instability suggest the Titans could achieve 8-9 wins. If Ward becomes the franchise quarterback and the defense improves under Wilson, Tennessee might surprise the NFL by competing for its first division title since 2021.
The Titans' +700 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the AFC South represent tremendous value when considering the division's overall weakness. Houston faces regression after posting a 13-8 record in one-possession games over two seasons, which is a historically unsustainable rate. This long shot has a clear path to pulling the upset in this division. With odds of +700, there will be numerous hedging opportunities to ensure a profit.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers ended last season with a 6-11 record, a significant drop from their NFC Championship appearance in 2023, mainly due to injuries. However, they benefit from a strong head coach, Kyle Shanahan. He has won 10 or more games in four of the past six seasons with the 49ers. The return of Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator ensures continuity, building on his previous defensive success, including the 2019 Super Bowl run.
San Francisco retained their most crucial performers despite some off-season departures. Brock Purdy's contract extension through 2029 provides quarterback stability that many worst-to-first candidates lack. His 2024 season (QB rating of 96.1) was not as strong as his 2023 season (113.0), although he still posted 3,864 passing yards with a 20:12 TD to INT ratio. Offensive line improvements and depth additions provide additional stability for Purdy's continued development in his third full season as the starter. Elite talents like tight end George Kittle, linebacker Fred Warner, and edge rusher Nick Bosa maintain the team's strength despite turnover in the supporting cast.
The draft focused on improving the defensive line by selecting edge rusher Mykel Williams from Georgia and defensive tackle Alfred Collins from Texas. These are two promising rookies who should contribute right away. The 49ers look to revive the strong defense that contributed to past championships. Having a healthy Fred Warner at linebacker is essential, as the 49ers tend to win when he's on the field but have a tough time when he's not. San Francisco allowed 25.6 points per game last season (tied for 28th) after allowing just 18.8 points per game in 2023. I expect a stingier defense in Santa Clara this year.
An analysis of worst-to-first football campaigns shows that quarterback performance is vital for improvement. For instance, the 1999 Indianapolis Colts went from a 3-13 record to 13-3 primarily because of Peyton Manning's growth in his second year. Likewise, the 2009 New Orleans Saints excelled thanks to Drew Brees' outstanding play in a better system.
At +160 to win the NFC West at FanDuel, the 49ers offer reasonable value as division favorites. The Rams (+200) and Cardinals (+370) both face their own questions, while the Seahawks (+500) are transitioning to Sam Darnold at quarterback. The 49ers' three division titles in four years (2019, 2022, 2023) demonstrate their ability to dominate this division when healthy. A split of these two selections would ensure a positive ROI. Let's go for the sweep!
