Sunday Night Football prediction, odds, spread, time: Patriots vs. Bills picks by Buffalo expert on 26-14 roll

The Buffalo Bills look to stay unbeaten and take control of the AFC East when they take on the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. Buffalo is coming off a 31-19 win over the New Orleans Saints, while New England rolled to a 42-13 win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 4. The Patriots (2-2), who are 1-0 within the division, are also 1-0 on the road in 2025. The Bills (4-0), who are 2-0 in the division, are 3-0 on their home field. Buffalo has also won four straight home games versus New England.

Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. The Patriots lead the all-time series 79-51-1, but the Bills have won eight of the past 11 meetings. Buffalo is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 49.5, making it the highest of Week 5. Buffalo is a -429 favorite on the money line (risk $429 to win $100), with New England at +334 (risk $100 to win $334). Before you make any Patriots vs. Bills picks, be sure to see what SportsLine expert Mike Tierney has to say. 

A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Mike Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. He is 235-189-13 in his NFL picks the past three seasons, returning $2,505 to $100 players (every bet 1 unit). He hit 61.2% of his ATS picks (61-39-3) last season. Tierney is also 26-14-3 (+1072) on his last 43 picks in Buffalo Bills games. Anyone following could've seen huge returns. 

Now, Tierney has set his sights on Patriots vs. Bills and just locked in his picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and NFL betting lines for Bills vs. Patriots:

Why the Bills can cover

Quarterback Josh Allen, last year's NFL MVP, is off to another dynamic start. In four games, he has completed 85 of 121 passes (70.2%) for 964 yards and seven touchdowns with one interception for a 109.7 rating. He also rushed 31 times for 159 yards (5.1 average) and three touchdowns. In the 41-40 win over the Baltimore Ravens in the season opener, he completed 33 of 46 passes (71.7%) for 394 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed 14 times for 30 yards and two scores.

Veteran running back James Cook powers the ground game. In four games, he has carried 75 times for 401 yards (5.3 average) and five touchdowns. He has had two explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 44, with 21 first-down conversions. In last Sunday's win over New Orleans, he rushed 22 times for 117 yards and a score. He also caught three passes for 18 yards. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Patriots can cover

Quarterback Drake Maye is off to a fast start to the season. In four starts, he has completed 91 of 123 passes (74%) for 988 yards and seven touchdowns with two interceptions and a rating of 109.4. He has also rushed 24 times for 98 yards (4.1 average) and two touchdowns. In last Sunday's big win over the Panthers, he completed 14 of 17 passes (82.4%) for 203 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing three times for 11 yards and a score.

Maye's top target is veteran wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs leads the Patriots with 19 receptions for 213 yards. In the win over Carolina, he caught six passes for 101 yards, including a season-long 33 yards. In a 20-13 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Sept. 7, he had six catches for 57 yards. In 11 seasons with four teams, Diggs has played in 148 games with 876 receptions for 10,704 yards (12.2 average) and 70 touchdowns. See which team to back at SportsLine.

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How to make Patriots vs. Bills picks

Tierney has analyzed Patriots vs. Bills from every angle and he's leaning Under on the point total. He has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Patriots vs. Bills, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back?. You can head to SportsLine to see his Patriots vs. Bills picks. Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the expert that is 26-14-3 on his last 43 Buffalo Bills picks, and find out.