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Week 13 was tough for favorites, with the Chiefs, Ravens, Eagles and Rams notably losing to seemingly inferior opponents. However, if you tailed SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman's favorites money line parlay for Week 13 you did not get hurt by any of those upsets. On the flip side, more underdogs winning means the potential for the underdog money line parlay to also be a factor as the 2025 NFL regular season nears its conclusion.

If you're looking to get into parlay betting and NFL betting for Week 14, you need to see what Hochman has to say. He's put together two money line parlays for Week 14, with one featuring only favorites on the money line and the other featuring only underdogs.

Week 14 NFL money line favorites parlay

Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a 3-team NFL money line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you're not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you're also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.

According to BetMGM data, NFL moneyline favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-2024, NFL moneyline favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%.

In Week 13, NFL betting favorites faced challenges, finishing with a record of 9 wins and 7 losses, with four of those defeats occurring on Thursday and Friday. So far this season, favorites have won 133 of 193 games, for an overall success rate of 68.9%. What does this imply for Week 14? Will the favorites continue to dominate as they did on Sunday and Monday? Take a look at Jeff's top moneyline parlays featuring favorites and underdogs.

Cleveland Browns over Tennessee Titans

I am entirely out on the Titans. Last week was a great spot and they absolutely laid an egg. The Browns should bounce back after some stupid, silly gaffes and coaching decisions last week against the 49ers. Cleveland is ranked ninth in third-down defense, 10th in red zone defense, and 11th in opponent passer rating, far ahead of the Titans. Both teams have flawed offenses but the Browns defense is a real difference-maker.

Cleveland is significantly better in every key defensive metric and far ahead at pressuring QBs (Myles Garrett advantage). Tennessee's offense and offensive line are the NFL's worst by most advanced metrics. Both offenses average under five yards per play, near-league worst marks, and both teams play at slow paces, so you might want to take a hard look at the Under. The Browns' defensive front (Garrett, Collins, Graham) should dominate the Titans' poor offensive line, creating short fields and third-down stops.

My betting model predicts the Browns to win by five points, with an average total of 30 points. Cleveland wins with a final score of 17-13.

Kansas City Chiefs over Houston Texans

This is another good spot for the home team to at least get a victory. We have a dome team playing in extreme cold (high in the low 20s). C.J. Stroud played well (19-for-28, 245 yards, 0 TD) in similar conditions in last year's AFC Divisional round, where the Chiefs won 23-14 as 10-point favorites. Houston struggled in the red zone, which could be a problem again, as the Texans rank 31st in red zone scoring, while the Chiefs rank seventh in red zone defense. Kansas City is 2-0 after previously losing two consecutive games this season and will have ten days to prepare for this contest.

Houston's top-ranked pass defense, allowing a passer rating of 74.2, creates a challenging situation for Mahomes, as its elite defensive line, ranked sixth in sacks, applies constant pressure. However, the extreme cold weather diminishes many of the Texans' advantages. At 6-6, Kansas City needs to win out. And while I lean toward Houston on the spread at +3.5 or higher, Andy Reid and company will keep their season alive in what should be an electric atmosphere on Sunday Night Football.

Philadelphia Eagles over Los Angeles Chargers

I love this spot for the Eagles after dropping two in a row. They have played the much more demanding schedule (No. 4 vs. No. 31) and will have extended rest after their defense was on the field for 85 plays and 39:18 possession time. The Eagles have a 12-25 career record in games where right tackle Lane Johnson has not started since the beginning of the 2016 season, including 0-2 in 2025. The stud right tackle could be back for this game but even if he's out, the Eagles have allowed just one sack without Johnson.

These two teams are evenly matched with the Eagles sporting a +1.9-point differential and the Chargers a +2.1 but as mentioned above, Los Angeles has played the second-easiest slate. Bo Nix is the best QB the Chargers have played since facing Patrick Mahomes in Week 1. Last week, the Chargers had a +17-point differential while the Eagles were -9. The public will remember what they saw last week and hammer the home team. Be careful. There might be more Eagles fans than Chargers fans present at SoFi Stadium.

Justin Herbert, who has a broken left hand, is likely to play and his availability will be a significant factor to watch as the week progresses. The Chargers are set to face the Chiefs next week and have a 3-5 record before playing Kansas City since 2021. It's always scary to fade a short home underdog on MNF. My gut tells me the Eagles are the best option for a money line bet.

Week 14 NFL money line underdogs parlay

A popular option is available if you're willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations, with home underdogs of +2 to +3 winning outright 46-48% of the time.

Jacksonville Jaguars over Indianapolis Colts

I can't get over all the injuries to the Colts, including Daniel Jones playing on a gimpy leg, which hinders his running ability. They will utilize Jonathan Taylor, who has gained 1,282 yards but Jacksonville's run defense is elite, allowing only 82.4 yards per game (ranked first in the NFL). The Jaguars don't have to worry about Jones and the read option, which is a significant advantage. Indianapolis is 1-2 in outdoor road games this season and 2-3 against winning teams. They have played an easier schedule (No. 20 vs. No. 8) through Week 13.

The Jaguars counter with home-field advantage and special teams superiority. They find ways to win. Jacksonville ranks sixth in special teams while Indianapolis ranks 12th. I think the wrong team is favored, as my model has Jacksonville as a -125 home favorite (-2.1-point spread).

New York Jets over Miami Dolphins

Have you seen Tua Tagovailoa play when the temperature is below 40 degrees? It has not been pretty. This is a significant fade on a Dolphins team that has won three consecutive games despite being out-gained in two of those matchups, all while playing at home. Miami hits the road after playing four straight home games. This is a revenge game. The Jets lost to Miami 27-21 back in September despite out-gaining them 404-300. It's an excellent spot to fade the fish.

The Jets have an elite third-down defense, ranked sixth with 35.7% conversion rate allowed, while Miami's defense ranks 23rd at 41.4%. This structural advantage makes field position critical. This forces Miami to be efficient on early-down offense or face third-and-long situations, which Tagovailoa has struggled with in extreme cold. Tyrod Taylor completed 19 of 33 passes for 172 yards and a touchdown while rushing eight times for 44 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 27-24 win over the Falcons. I'm comfortable with Taylor under center. New York has the better special teams and could be the difference in what projects to be a tightly contested game.

Chicago Bears over Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has dominated the Bears, going 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. The Bears' victory occurred last January 24-22 as 10.5-point road underdogs. Chicago's roster, coaching, and QB play are much better than last year's team, and they have a top-7 third-down offense and defense. This is not a team that lacks potential; Chicago has a real chance to win.

The Packers are favored for several reasons as they hold a significant advantage in total DVOA (No. 5 vs. No. 19). While the Packers have a +0.9 net yards per play and the Bears are -0.5, Green Bay could be without several starters on defense. Ben Johnson has been in this division for years and knows how to scheme against Green Bay's defense. Also, extreme cold weather creates high variance. We know division games are ripe for upsets between two winning teams. My model has Green Bay favored by just under 5 points, so getting the Bears at +250 seems like good value.