NFL Thanksgiving 2025 betting guide: Best bets, anytime touchdown scorer picks and props for every game

Well, well, well. If it isn't the most glorious time of the year for NFL football! Nothing beats Thanksgiving Day football games, a full eight hours of gorging yourself on turkey and pigskin. The games are always a delight, but this year's Turkey Day slate is particularly exciting. 

We've got the Lions and Packers squaring off early, then the Cowboys and Chiefs fighting for their playoff lives on CBS and Paramount+, and the nightcap is the return from injury of Joe Burrow against the rival Ravens. It's an absolutely loaded slate.

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Now, look, this is a holiday, so we're probably going to toss some of these picks into parlays. Personally, I already took the touchdown scorers below and parlayed them to score twice each (with a 2x round robin in case two-thirds of them actually do get home). Parlay at your discretion, and maybe even use some alternate totals or spreads in order to get you what you need.

Let's feast! 

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Thanksgiving NFL picks

Lions -2.5 vs. Packers

So much for the Lions bouncing back well from a loss! They were clearly looking ahead to this week's massive game against the Packers and were extremely lucky to come out of that game against the Giants with a win. 

Now, you could also make the case they've looked bad for the last two weeks and perhaps the issues are more systematic. Here's hoping they're not! 

Dan Campbell took over playcalling ahead of Week 10 and the Lions were incredible on offense. The last two weeks ... not so much. They put up a ton of points on the Giants and won, but it was all Jahmyr Gibbs. Jared Goff's looked shaky at best over the last two weeks. 

The Packers aren't exactly a team you want to face to "get right" on offense. But I do think the Lions were looking ahead a bit, and I do think they'll be up for this game on Thanksgiving. Because of Green Bay thumping Minnesota and Detroit struggling, we're getting a little bit of a buy low spot on Detroit here.

It's probably fair to call this a field goal game, but I'm going to listen to my Uncle Mills who says every Thanksgiving "you never bet against the Lions on Turkey Day, Will."

Chiefs at Cowboys Under 52.5

This total is massive and it looks like it could come down ahead of Thanksgiving, so if you like this, you're probably going to want to get on it kind of early (specifically over at DraftKings). 

At first glance, it's easy to see why it's a high-totaled game. It's the Cowboys, it's the Chiefs, it's the mid-day Thanksgiving game (on CBS and Paramount+! Tell your friends!) If the Chiefs were their normal selves, it would be impossible to get in the way of this Over. 

But the Chiefs aren't their normal selves, and even though they're squaring off against a Cowboys defense that has been horrible all year, I'm really inclined to back the Under here. 

Kansas City is much more methodical than explosive at the moment and they've got major red-zone issues currently. That could lead to long drives that end in field goals like we saw in Week 12 against the Colts and if that happens, this should cruise Under. The Cowboys are explosive on offense, but would probably prefer to run the ball if this game is a grinder, especially against a Chiefs defense that likes to limit big plays down the field. 

Don't be afraid to look for a middle opportunity after you scarf down that turkey if this is a really low-scoring first half too. 

Bengals at Ravens Over 51.5

This was easily the toughest game of the Thanksgiving slate to handicap for me, because the number is so robust and because Joe Burrow is expected to return. The Bengals will be without Trey Hendrickson and Tee Higgins, though, and that makes me pretty nervous taking them with the 7 points.

Cincy's defense is just terrible this year. And as bad as the Ravens offense has looked the last two weeks, despite the return of Lamar Jackson, I just have a feeling we get a monster shootout on Thanksgiving night. The Ravens can put up points in a hurry and they love to show out in primetime. They also need to make sure and take care of business against Burrow and Co., because the Steelers are absolutely not going away just yet. 

Conversely, we could be concerned whether Burrow is ready to play or not, but he practiced in full last week and has Ja'Marr Chase back and angry off his spit-fueled, one-game suspension. 

We've seen these games get loose, and I of feel like Burrow's return on a holiday evening might turn into just that. 

Week 13 Thanksgiving NFL player props 

David Montgomery Over 9.5 carries

Fresh off Gibbs' insane game against the Giants, let's go the complete opposite way and pivot towards a David Montgomery prop. Dan Campbell mentioned wanting to get Montgomery involved more and then promptly let Gibbs win the game for him, although Gibbs only had 15 carries. 

I think the Lions will try to be a little more physical early against this Packers defense, hoping to avoid putting Jared Goff in bad spots. That should equate to Montgomery getting fed more, especially in short-yardage situations. 

Remember, Gibbs' touchdowns both came from 49+ yards out and the Amon-Ra St. Brown touchdown came on a running-esque play. It's very possible this is more of a Montgomery grinder game, or the Lions get shorter looks at the end zone and feed their bruiser against a physical Packers defense. 

Montgomery just needs 10 carries, which he exceeded against Green Bay in Week 1 despite a deficit, and which he's gone over seven out of 11 times so far this season. 

Rashee Rice Under 6.5 receptions

This is primarily a play on what we expect (see: above) to be a less enthusiastic passing game, as well as Rice's injury status. The star receiver is playing with a banged-up hamstring and he was flexing and stretching on the field Sunday after going down before contact on multiple receptions. 

Kansas City might very well need him to produce if the game turns into a shootout and/or they're trailing, and this prop could cash at halftime given how much work he does near the line of scrimmage.

But if the Chiefs are controlling this game at all, I'd expect them to limit the number of snaps Rice sees. And that means fewer opportunities for receptions. He doesn't get there in Week 12 without Kansas City trailing. 

Obviously if he gets hurt before he gets to seven catches this is probably going to cash. 

Lamar Jackson Over 25.5 rushing yards

There's very good reason why Jackson isn't running much or very well these days. He's got a hamstring injury and it's definitely an issue for him, because 11 carries for 21 yards in his last two games is not very Lamar-esque. You could make the argument he would be even less likely to run in this game because the Bengals can be got without him activating his legs, it's a short week and the Ravens will try to win traditionally. 

I don't disagree! But I also think this is a monster game for Baltimore. Burrow is back and the Bengals would love to play spoiler in the AFC North and keep their own hopes alive. I generally wouldn't be that shocked if Todd Monken came out early with a few designed runs from Jackson to open up the running game for Derrick Henry after the Ravens struggled in that facet last week against a questionable Jets defense.

Should this game be a shootout, I could see Jackson throwing caution to the wind, knowing he has a mini-bye to rest up before next week against the Steelers. Baltimore is a huge favorite (-450) to win the division already thanks to their five-game win streak. If they win the next two games, they're going to be almost impossible to take down barring a complete collapse. 

This is, by the way, a hilariously low number for Jackson, so we're going to get in at the bottom of the market. 

Anytime touchdown scorer props

Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD

Whew, our Lions anytime touchdown scorer did not work out last week did it? No clue how they scored 34 points and Jameson Williams didn't get involved at all. I was tempted to go back to him here, but St. Brown is just easily the best value on the board.

Gibbs and Josh Jacobs have numbers that you really just can't bet unless you're including them in some bigger Thanksgiving parlay. St. Brown, however, is even money and I'm extremely interested in taking him given how much the Lions are willing to find him down by the goal line.

Detroit will largely try to feed their backs when they get down to the end zone, but if the Packers stifle the run at all, Campbell has plenty of plays on his sheet to get St. Brown the ball.  

George Pickens anytime TD

Pickens scored again last week and continues to be a big-time red-zone threat for Dak Prescott. He's top 10 in the league for wideouts in terms of red zone targets and has been reasonably efficient with those targets.You can even argue he's due for some more positive touchdown regression. 

Kansas City should be able to load up the middle with Chris Jones and slow down Javonte Williams and the Dallas running game. That should lead to more short passes by the goal line for Dak Prescott, and right now we've seen Pickens be more reliable in those spots than CeeDee Lamb.  

Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD

This isn't the juiciest touchdown number in the world -- none of these are, I suppose -- but in Burrow's first game back from injury, with Higgins out, I'm expecting more than enough looks in Chase's direction.

Add in Chase coming back from suspension, the high-profile nature of the game, the bitter nature of the rivalry and Chase's career marks against Baltimore -- he averages 120 yards per game and has eight touchdowns in eight games against the Ravens -- and this is a no brainer as long as it's -120 or less. 

Chase to score twice by himself at 6-1 is probably a pretty good look and absolutely correlated with this game going Over.