NFL on Thanksgiving cheat sheet: Everything you need to know to impress relatives for holiday games

We've made it to the most wonderful time of the year: when the family gathers around, there's great food on the table, and some real intense discussions about football! The Thanksgiving and Black Friday slate is chock full of intense rivalries, fascinating matchups and real playoff implications for every team involved. The best part? We get to talk about it before and after the game! So, to get you ready for your Turkey Day festivities, we're going to establish some fun and tell you what you need to know for every Thanksgiving and Black Friday game.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Thursday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox  (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

What to talk to your aunts and uncles about: Jared Goff and the Lions' OL against Micah Parsons, Part II.

The last time the Detroit Lions faced off against Micah Parsons and the Packers' defense, it was a week 1 bloodbath. The Packers not only held the Lions to their 4th-lowest offensive output of the season by EPA per play, they held the Lions' run game to their worst game of the season when it comes to rushing yards, EPA per carry, Adjusted Yards before Contact and more. The crazy thing about that game? Green Bay isn't the biggest defense in the NFL by sheer size. Their biggest defensive linemen are Nazir Stackhouse and Warren Brinson at 327 and 315 pounds, respectively, and both are rotational defensive tackles. 

Green Bay steals a lot of gaps in the run game using slants and stunts to create chaos on the ground and allow for their linebackers to flow fast to the ball. However, when teams decide to get big against the Packers' defense and run gap/man concepts, Green Bay shows some cracks. They're only about league average in Yards Before Contact, total rushing EPA and success rate against those concepts this season, and a large part of it is because the slants and stunts they do don't work as well against those concepts. Teams are able to mash them into the ground with lead runs, like Minnesota did using fullback CJ Ham. 

Detroit's offensive line has to be healthy going into this game, because I think for them to win they lean on the Packers' smaller defensive front in the run game. Even without starting left guard Christian Mahogany, NFL Pro has the Lions at a sterling 3.5 yards before contact running between the tackles. RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery didn't have a great day at the office in Week 1, but with Dan Campbell calling plays they could lean more on the ground game. Without Sam LaPorta they've done less 12 personnel, but in substitution they bring backup tackle Dan Skipper on the field and run jumbo personnel. Skipper could be the unsung hero to save their run game against the Packers.

Then there's the Jared Goff of it all. Goff has taken on a lot more responsibility when it comes to managing pressure and calling out protections since Week 1, but when the Lions drop back to pass the game will be won over the middle of the field. Jared Goff is the king of the 12-yard dig. He leads the NFL in percentages of attempts over the middle of the field, and in the last matchup with the Packers, he put up a 0.27 EPA per attempt over the middle of the field. 

Lions vs. Packers prediction: Can Detroit defend home turf or will Green Bay pull off the Thanksgiving upset?

Jared Dubin

However, where the Packers have been the Dagger killers this season because of how many ways they can get to Tampa 2 in obvious passing scenarios. There are a lot of versatile players on the Packers' defense who can close off those dagger windows, like S Evan Williams and LBs Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper. Walker had a great game in their first matchup, and if he's healthy he gives Green Bay some size and range against the speed of Detroit's offense.

With all that going on, you also have to deal with Micah Parsons, who speeds up the clock of any passing offense, but especially when he's used as a spinner. Detroit's weakness is between the tackles as a passing unit, and if you get Parsons isolated on Tate Ratledge, Kayode Awosika or whoever ends up at center, I like that matchup for Green Bay.

What to talk to your cousins about: Jordan Love finding answers against man coverage and against the blitz

While the Packers offense has had their ups and downs this season, I think Jordan Love has been fairly steady. An area of growth I've enjoyed seeing from Love is his answers against the blitz this season. According to Sumer Sports, Love is second in the NFL in EPA per play when blitzed and 10th in the NFL in success rate when blitzed, a major jump from 2024 (min. 50 attempts when blitzed). While Love still drifts backwards in the pocket to buy time to attack downfield, he's done a much better job identifying pressures and getting to his answers vs blitzes this season. His command of the offense has grown in what is his third season as the full time starter, and he's gotten his receivers into a lot of really good spots to make plays against the blitz. 

This play looks like a dangerous throw, but let's examine this for a second. Love adjusts the protection, waving his hand to his right because he catches DB Josh Metellus showing his hand early. The RB ends up whiffing in protection and the Vikings end up getting a free runner against Love. But Love knows where he's hot, and drops one in a bucket to move the chains.

Love is also one of the best QBs in the NFL against man coverage, but since TE Tucker Kraft tore his ACL, the offense has sputtered when facing man coverage. Green Bay's receiving core is 30th in the NFL in Yards Per Route Run against man since Kraft went out at a paltry 0.79 YPRR, compared to 2nd in the NFL in that same metric at 2.18 YPRR vs man. Also in that same time period since Kraft's injury, Jordan Love has dropped to a 0.16 EPA per play and a 37.0% success rate vs man coverage, compared to a 0.41 EPA per play and 59.6% success rate (per TruMedia). 

The Packers have struggled to find a consistent receiver to create separation against man coverage since Kraft got hurt, and against a Lions team that plays the most man coverage in the NFL, someone has to step up. Could it be WR Christian Watson, who didn't play in the first matchup with Detroit but is Love's most trusted target downfield? Or could it be WR Jayden Reed, who has the juice to give the Lions fits in man coverage but also might be playing in his first game since a collarbone injury? I'm curious how it pans out against a Lions secondary that got CB DJ Reed back.

What to talk to the kids about: Christian Watson's first down celebration

Trafalgar Law is not only one of the coolest characters in One Piece, but all of anime. Watson doing his "Room" pose as his first down celebration is my new favorite thing in the NFL. More anime celebrations please and thank you.

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys

Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

What to talk to your aunts and uncles about: How the Cowboys will defend the Chiefs' passing offense.

Chiefs. Cowboys. JerryWorld. Right when Thanksgiving dinner should be getting served. What's better than this for the content and conversations? You're going to want to talk to your aunts and uncles about how the Cowboys' resurgent defense is going to defend one of the most … confusing? Chaotic? Let's go with interesting, one of the most interesting offenses in the NFL in Kansas City.

Where this game is really going to potentially get hairy for the Cowboys is against the pass, because QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs absolutely SHRED zone coverage. According to Sumer Sports, Mahomes has only been about league average in EPA/play and success rate against man, but when he gets zone he's first in the NFL in EPA/play and success rate. We talked about Christian Watson doing the Trafalgar Law first down celebration, but Mahomes might really be the Surgeon of Death against zone coverage. The way he can manipulate defenders and space with his pocket movement and accuracy is the best in the NFL, and if he gets zone coverage he can find voids in every area. 

The Chiefs' receivers are also better against zone coverage than man; they're currently tied with the Indianapolis Colts for second in the NFL in Yards Per Route Run against zone compared to 26th in that same metric vs man coverage. Teams have to respect the speed of WRs Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and Tyquan Thornton, which leaves voids for WR Rashee Rice and TE Travis Kelce to kinda just vibe and find gaps.

Why it gets difficult for Kansas City so often against man is partially because they don't have many true separators. Rice is a good player, but against man he's more of a matchup on the inside against overmatched nickels and linebackers. Kelce has lost a step so he's not as consistent against man, and the others struggle to get off of press consistently because they're all 150 pounds. So, HC Andy Reid and the offensive braintrust resort to more gimmicky ways of creating separation through stacks and bunches, but those just haven't popped often this season.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction: Can Patrick Mahomes keep pace with Dak Prescott and the potent Dallas offense?

Douglas Clawson

It might pop against the Cowboys, because Dallas … doesn't play a lot of man coverage. According to TruMedia, Dallas plays man coverage at the fourth lowest rate in the NFL at 14.1%. After acquiring DT Quinnen Williams, that number … went down to 6.9%. I'm not against DC Matt Eberflus changing his stripes as a coordinator, but the way he's built this defense is to play zone coverage and let the pass rush really get after the QB. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cowboys stick to their guns and play zone coverage, but don't be surprised if Mahomes goes supernova against their zone coverage.

What to talk to your cousins about: The dominant defensive tackle play flipping this game

The trench battles in this game will be legendary, on both sides of the ball. If we want to start with the Chiefs' offense against the Cowboys' defense, it starts with the newest Cowboy Quinnen Williams. Since coming to Dallas, Williams has 15 pressures in two games – he had 19 total as a member of the Jets. The reason Eberflus wants to play zone coverage is because he finally has his impactful defensive tackle in Williams. His power and quickness on the interior has given a lot of teams problems, and if the Chiefs enter this game without RG Trey Smith, it could be open season. Eberflus loves designing his pressure packages around Williams, getting him single matchups like getting a big man a touch in the low post. 

On the flip side, DT Chris Jones has played his best football in recent weeks. He's got 10 pressures in two games and has been impactful in the run game as well. Dallas' offensive line is much better as a run blocking unit than a pass protecting one, but Kansas City has actually been pretty good defending the run as of late. LBs Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal play really well off of each other in the run game, and with Jones blowing up plays at will they clean up messes at a really high rate. The flip side of that is they're vulnerable to play-action, giving up a success rate and EPA per play with play action that's in the upper half of the league. They ask a lot of their defensive backs in coverage so their linebackers can play aggressively in the run game, but against a team like Dallas with two legitimate stars at wideout and a QB playing some of the best football in the sport, I wonder how DC Steve Spagnuolo buys enough time for Chris Jones to get home. Rookie RG Tyler Booker is going to be in for a whale of a game.

What to talk to the kids about: Dak's cadence at the line

"YEAHHHHHHHHH, HERE WE GOOOOOOOO" is the best cadence in the NFL, courtesy of Dak Prescott. Use this opportunity to tell the kids about cadences in the NFL, where it's a lot different from down, set, hike.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC

What to talk to your aunts and uncles about: The return of Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow is back, baby.

The Bengals are 3-8 with the worst defense in NFL history, and Tee Higgins might also miss this game with a concussion, but Burrow being back is good for the Bengals and fun for the NFL. There's going to be a lot of buddyball with he and WR Ja'Marr Chase, who might have 30 targets in this game, but I am curious how Burrow adjusts back to the speed of an NFL game where you're facing a team with a different color helmet than yours, especially one that's got as much speed at the second level as the Ravens. With Burrow on the field, the Bengals are averaging 2.29 points per drive this season and 2.23 points per drive in Burrow's career on the field. Without him this season, Cincy drops to 1.94 points per drive. Let's hope he's fully healthy, because a healthy Burrow is fun.

What to talk to your cousins about: Kyle Hamilton's case for Defensive Player of the Year

This is a huge test for Baltimore, who has turned their defense around since the Alohi Gilman trade that allowed Kyle Hamilton to play more in the box. Since Week 7, the Ravens are first in the NFL in points per drive allowed, second in defensive EPA per play and third in defensive success rate. With Hamilton doing his best impression of Flex Seal for the Ravens, they've been able to get their best defensive backs on the field and limit the amount LBs Teddye Buchanan and Trenton Simpson are compromised in coverage. Hamilton is a low key candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, making an impact wherever he's at. He's got a 2.1% Havoc Rate (plays where the player causes a TFL, sack, PBU or INT) on the season, but since the Gilman trade that's jumped up to 3.1%, which isn't only first on the Ravens, but the highest among any safety in the NFL. His instincts, violence and versatility set the tone for the Ravens, even having plays where he thumps guards for TFLs.

There really isn't much precedent for a player like Hamilton, who can play overhang extremely well, play deep safety well and blitz with the best of the bunch at the position. He hits like a linebacker and runs like a safety, cleaning up mistakes anywhere Baltimore has him. DC Zach Orr will call blitzes for Hamilton to pick linemen or steamroll running backs! That's not normal for a safety! 

Ravens vs. Bengals prediction: Can Joe Burrow save Cincinnati on Thanksgiving?

Cody Benjamin

If there's any question I still have about the veracity of the Ravens' defensive turnaround, getting a game against Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase could be a great indicator. They've been great since the Gilman trade, but have played teams like the Dolphins, Vikings, Browns and Jets in that timespan. Let's see if they can keep this up to finish the season.

What to talk to the kids about: The Ravens' all-purple uniforms

These, quite frankly, go HARD. It's hard to mess up black, purple and gold, and the Ravens knocked this alternate uniform out the park.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles

Black Friday, 3 p.m. ET on Prime Video

What to talk to your aunts and uncles about: What's wrong with the Eagles' offense?

You thought you wouldn't get Black Friday content in this? THINK AGAIN! The Eagles are 8-3, yes, and have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and yet the offense has been simply pedestrian for the entire season. Here are some of the stats that qualify as the lowest for the Eagles since Jalen Hurts became the full time starter in 2021, per TruMedia:

• Offensive success rate (43.7%)
• Offensive EPA/play (0.00)
• Offensive Points per Drive (2.04)
• Offensive drive Scoring percentage (34.8%)

We got trouble in paradise. The first problem with the offense is the run game, but there are a lot of compounding factors. Let's start with the offensive line, the Eagles' biggest advantage. Due to lingering injuries to LG Landon Dickerson, C Cam Jurgens and RT Lane Johnson, their Adjusted Yards Before Contact per rush is 0.91, which … also is the lowest since Hurts became the starter. However, the second lowest Adjusted Yards before Contact per rush came from 2024 … when Saquon Barkley ran for 2,000 yards. The offensive line hasn't been healthy and they haven't been able to win on the ground as often due to some personnel changes (hello Jack Stoll and Mekhi Becton), but I also think Barkley is feeling the effects of carrying such a heavy workload. Last season, the Eagles' OL did create a lot of holes, but Barkley averaged almost five Yards after Contact per carry, per TruMedia. This season he's gone down to 2.92, a drastic fall off. Now this isn't me saying Barkley is washed or bad, quite the opposite. But I do think Barkley hasn't created many explosive runs, which is hurting the success of the offense.

Yet, the biggest problem I think the 2025 Eagles have is their lack of relying on the one answer they have to their offensive problems. When you live in shotgun like the Eagles do (77% shotgun rate in 2025–sixth in the NFL) you find yourself having to use a few more tricks to get defenses out of those two-high structures. Some teams that are exclusively in shotgun use their QB as a run threat, forcing teams to account for the QB as a runner (i.e., Washington). Other teams use RPOs heavily to manufacture quick game and force teams to tackle from depth or put them in a bind (i.e., Kansas City). 

Eagles vs. Bears prediction: Can Caleb Williams upset the reigning champions on Black Friday?

Cody Benjamin

This season, the Eagles do neither at the same rate as they used to. This is the lowest designed rush rate for Jalen Hurts in his entire career, and also the lowest RPO rate of his career. Hurts isn't really a quick game passer either, so for the offense to work you have to lean into his ability to run or go gimmicky with RPOs. With opposing defenses getting wiser at defending RPOs, the answer I think the Eagles have to their offensive woes is simple: use Jalen Hurts on designed runs. Not scrambles, but intentional QB draws, QB powers, things that get him moving forward. It won't be a get rich quick scheme offensively, but it should loosen some lanes up for the Eagles' offense.

What to talk to your cousins about: Ben Johnson vs. Vic Fangio

The most exciting part about this game is the uber-explosive Bears offense going up against the stingy Eagles' defense. Let's use some numbers to set the stage real quick. The Bears' offense is sixth in the NFL in percentage of plays gaining 20 or more yards, fourth in percentage of plays gaining 10 or more yards, ninth in EPA per play and 11th in Success Rate. This offense cashes out in big bills only, with a QB in Caleb Williams who is instructed within the offense to hunt for big plays. Williams is ninth in the NFL in Air Yards per Target per NFL Pro, and eighth in Deep Target rate. 

This is also with the Bears' receiving corps, while incredibly talented, having a few lapses in focus. Whether it be drops (cough cough DJ Moore) or just not being able to get feet in bounds, their efficiency numbers could be even higher if they just iron out the kinks. The Bears have found an identity in using the run game to set up their explosive play action game, where the Bears are fourth in plays of over 20 yards. Caleb Williams is growing more and more confident in passes over the middle of the field, and while he'll spray some misses in there, these are some SICK rips off play action.

Now despite the numbers, the Eagles are one of the stingiest defenses in the league when it comes to explosives. Philly's defense has given up plays of over 20 yards on 9.0% of its plays, 12th-highest in the NFL, but with a bevy of pass rushers such as Jalen Carter, Jaelan Phillips and others, the Eagles force teams to bend to their will. 

Philly keeps a roof on the defense with plenty of Quarters and Cover 6, forcing opposing QBs to throw it short and then rally to make tackles. That's where the defense really starts to kick in. With the pressure rate turning up since the Phillips trade, and the Eagles' ability to bat passes down, they make offense so difficult. The problem here is pretty simple, though: Williams and the Bears don't really check it down. Their checkdown is Williams' scrambles, which keep them explosive as well. To keep it simple: this is a game between an offense that wants to skip over the collard greens and corn at the Thanksgiving table and go straight for the sweet potato pie, against a defense that makes you eat vegetables first. If Williams can pose headaches for the Bears through his sack avoidance and scrambling, then connect on a few explosives, I think the Bears have a great shot at winning.

What to talk to the kids about: The Bears' receivers first down celebration

The Bears, as a whole, have a dope first down celebration, and it's taking over TikTok. I'll even find myself doing first down celebrations after completing stories and podcasts. Come up with some first down celebrations with the kids and they'll be alright.