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Week 3 in the NFL got underway on Thursday night, and we now wait patiently to sink our teeth into the full Sunday slate later this weekend. As we watch the minutes tick off the clock before kickoff, why not get our bets in order? The Week 3 slate is littered with fascinating dynamics as the injury bug has taken a noticeably big bite out of some teams, particularly at quarterback. Naturally, with QBs in and out of the lineup, that does alter the lines for this week, but there are plenty of mismatches that we'll look to exploit. 

After diving into the prop market, I've identified a handful of advantageous plays. Within that group, we have a couple of receivers going over their respective props, a star running back with a beautiful mismatch, and another back that should see a resurgence following a lackluster start through the first two games. 

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Bijan Robinson: Over 79.5 rushing yards

This number is way too low for Robinson as he squares off against a poor Panthers run defense. Through two games, Carolina is surrendering 141 rushing yards per game, which is the seventh-highest in the NFL. And this isn't just a poor two-game stretch. Dating back to last season, the Panthers are giving up an NFL-high 175.7 rushing yards per game (the next highest is 140.6). Robinson also loves squaring off against this division foe, tallying 265 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns in two games against the Panthers last season. I'd play his rushing totals up to 100 yards, but getting 80 at this price is where we lay the hammer. 

Rome Odunze: Over 4.5 receiving yards

As we look toward Odunze for this matchup, the game script and role seem to match up quite well. Through two weeks, no Bears receiver has been targeted more than Odunze, and the 2024 first-rounder is coming off a 128-yard showing against the Lions last week, which should only embolden Caleb Williams to further look his way. Moreover, I have the Cowboys winning this matchup, which means the Bears could be in a similar game script as Week 2 and will need to throw to keep themselves in the game, which only helps Odunze, who has gone over this number in both of his games this season with an average of 10 targets per game. 

Isiah Pacheco Over 35.5 rushing yards

  • Best price: -118 (BetMGM, where new users get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if their first football bet doesn't win)

Most other books have Pacheco's O/U prop in the low 40s, so this is a fantastic number. The Chiefs back has only seen 15 carries through two games this season. That has largely been due to Kansas City falling behind, which has the offense pushing the ground game to the side. Those rushes are still good for the team lead, and Pacheco now has a tasty matchup against the New York Giants, who are giving up a league-high 177.5 rushing yards per game. Even if Pacheco maintains his 7.5 rushing attempts average on the season, New York's 5.9 yards per rush attempt allowed average (second-highest in the NFL) can get us over. However, I expect Pacheco to see more carries this week with Kansas City sitting as a road favorite and expected to have solid command of this prime-time contest. 

George Pickens: Over 53.5 receiving yards

With this game having one of the highest totals on the slate, it shouldn't be too surprising to see us double-dip on some receivers. Chicago is giving up 18.78 yards per reception to wideouts so far this season, which is the highest in the NFL. With Pickens being Dallas' deep shot pass catcher, he has a shot to cash this over on one reception. For instance, Jameson Williams, who plays a similar role to Pickens within Detroit's offense, hauled in a 64-yard reception along with a 44-yard touchdown last week. I see Pickens on a similar trajectory in Week 3.

Juwan Johnson: Anytime touchdown

Johnson has been one of the surprise breakouts in the early stages of the season, both in real life and in fantasy football. He's averaging 10 (!) targets per game and has a 90% route participation rate through two weeks, so he is a heavily involved figure in the New Orleans passing attack. Johnson is also tied with Tucker Kraft for the most red zone targets (three) at the tight end position in the NFL. Not only does his role set him up well to find the end zone for the second-straight week, but he also has a solid matchup as the Seahawks have been a bit leaky to tight ends in coverage. Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith combined for seven catches on eight targets for 58 yards last week, and George Kittle caught all four of his targets for 25 yards and a touchdown in the opener. Spencer Rattler should look Johnson's way a heavy amount, which includes the red zone.