Chiefs vs. Lions prediction: Can Patrick Mahomes outduel Detroit's high-octane attack?
Let's preview and predict Sunday night's heavyweight battle
•
4 min read
Three years ago, the NFL opened its season by pitting the Detroit Lions against the Kansas City Chiefs. It was a matchup of two very different contenders: one freshly on the upswing in Detroit, which had just established itself as a potential force thanks to a late-year push under coach Dan Campbell; the other firmly entrenched as a powerhouse in Kansas City, which had just outdueled the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII for the second ring of Patrick Mahomes' career.
Three years later, both Detroit and Kansas City remain NFL heavyweights. But they're once again in very different places. This time, the Lions are the unquestioned juggernauts, easily leading the league in points per game (34.8) a year after cruising to the NFC's No. 1 playoff seed. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have a deeper postseason resume thanks to five Super Bowl appearances in the last six years, but at 2-3, they're in the midst of maybe the sloppiest slog of the vaunted Mahomes era.
Bet Chiefs vs. Lions at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Claim your offer here:
Where are both clubs headed next? We'll find out when they clash in prime time to help close Week 6's Sunday slate.
Where to watch Chiefs vs. Lions live
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 12 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
- TV: NBC | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Chiefs -2.5; O/U 53 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Key questions
- Can anyone besides Patrick Mahomes break free on the ground? This pertains exclusively to the Chiefs, who somehow still rank in the top 10 in terms of average offensive yardage but are leaning heavily upon their quarterback to carry a one-dimensional attack. Mahomes remains a magician, as evidenced by his team-high 190 rushing yards via desperate scrambles, and Isiah Pacheco is at least gaining some steam in a rotational role in recent weeks. But there's no real steady rhythm with the rushing attack, with the aging Kareem Hunt still a face of the committee, putting added pressure on Mahomes' aerial work.
- Do the Chiefs stand a chance of defending the run? Not only is Kansas City struggling to move the ball consistently on the ground, but Steve Spagnuolo's defense is also pressing to plug holes against opposing rushing attacks, surrendering more than 120 yards per game. That spells big trouble against a Lions team with maybe the best 1-2 punch in the league; both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are on pace for 1,000-yard seasons as the lightning and thunder of Detroit's all-star lineup. Nick Bolton is a tackle machine at the heart of the Chiefs' defensive efforts, but this could be an uphill battle.
- Which top edge rusher will steal the spotlight? Aidan Hutchinson is practically the face of the Lions' defense, and he's already logged five sacks and three forced fumbles on the year. He should have a favorable matchup against Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor. But K.C. has a bona fide pocket disruptor of its own in George Karlaftis, who leads the club with six tackles for loss in the middle of a breakout campaign. If Karlaftis can find a way to best Penei Sewell off the edge, putting heat on Jared Goff's typically clean operation, it could go a long way in slowing the Lions' track-team fireworks.
You can bet Chiefs vs. Lions at FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:
X factor to watch
While the Chiefs have been streaky with the ball in their hands, Mahomes has generally done a good job of controlling the rock, throwing just two interceptions through five games. Still, the more he has to make something out of nothing, the more he tends to put the ball in harm's way. Enter Kerby Joseph, who's racked up a whopping 20 interceptions since he began his career with the Lions back in 2022. This man is a pick magnet on the back end, showcasing elite range and ball-tracking whenever opportunities present themselves. If anyone's going to rob Kansas City of a possession in this one, it's probably going to be him.
Chiefs vs. Lions prediction, pick
When these two teams met at Arrowhead Stadium to kick off the 2023 season, the Lions escaped with a 21-20 victory, announcing to the rest of the NFL they'd finally arrived as contenders. Now, the book is out on Detroit as a title candidate, and yet Dan Campbell's aggression and general manager Brad Holmes' all-star assembly remain a force. We're not ready to say the Chiefs no longer belong on the same plane, but it's clear, five games into 2025, Kansas City is even more of a makeshift outfit than usual.
Will Mahomes and Co. be motivated to rebound from Week 5's prime-time loss? Sure. But when have we ever questioned the Chiefs' motivations? This is about talent, strategy and execution, and right now, the Lions are clearly better on all fronts. They've got splashier weapons. They've got undying boldness. They've got momentum. While Kansas City may be scrappy and seasoned, the Lions are firing on all cylinders, and their ability to find space both on the ground and through the air should help them prevail.
Will it be tight like the last time they met? We'd actually bet against it. The Chiefs should keep this within a score while hosting the Sunday night affair, but Detroit's got enough firepower to take care of business decisively.
Pick: Lions 31, Chiefs 26 | Lions +2.5, Over 53
