NFL picks, best bets, props: This Thanksgiving Day parlay returns 11-1

After 10,000 simulations, SportsLine's model reveals its top NFL Thanksgiving Day parlay and best bets

By Ross Kelly

Nov 25, 2025 at 11:42 am ET • 3 min read

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The NFL Thanksgiving Day games are often as anticipated as the food and family time which accompany the holiday, and the 2025 Thanksgiving NFL slate is among the best ever. Lions vs. Packers (+2.5) kicks things off at 1 p.m. ET, followed by Cowboys vs. Chiefs (-3) at 4:30 p.m. ET, with Ravens vs. Bengals (+7) the 8:20 p.m. ET nightcap. One could make an NFL parlay using those spreads, or incorporate picks on the total, with the money line, or by inserting NFL props. Baltimore enters in on a five-game winning streak this season, and it's won four straight versus Cincinnati, making the Ravens an attractive option with your Thanksgiving NFL parlay.

As for those prop bets you could include, there is no shortage of stars to target, including Jahmyr Gibbs, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Dak Prescott and a well-rested Ja'Marr Chase. Prescott has multiple touchdown passes in five straight Thanksgiving Day games, but Kansas City has given up just 11 passing scores across 11 games this year. He has an over/under of 1.5 passing TDs versus the Chiefs, with NFL prop odds of -132 for the Over and an intriguing plus-money payout of +100 for the Under. Before locking in any Thanksgiving NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 on a 49-33 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 13 NFL odds and locked in four confident NFL best bets for Thanksgiving Day. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of over 11-1. You can only see the model's Thanksgiving NFL parlay picks at SportsLine.

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Top Thanksgiving NFL parlay picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Ravens (-7, 51.5) to cover against the Bengals. Not only has Baltimore won four straight versus Cincy, but the Ravens sport a 4-1 ATS record over their last five meetings. This season, Baltimore's defense is back to being elite as it has kept six straight opponents under 20 points, including a pair of top-10 scoring offenses in the Rams and Bears. Even if Joe Burrow returns, the Bengals offense isn't on that level, and Cincinnati's defense is the worst in the NFL.

The Bengals rank dead last in points allowed, yards allowed and passing defense, while working second-to-last in run defense and third-down defense. A lack of taking the ball away plays a big part in those rankings as Cincy has forced only one turnover, total, over its last four games, while Baltimore has nine takeaways over its last four. With these discrepancies, Baltimore is projected to win by double-digits and cover in well over 50% of simulations in an A-rated spread pick. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here, and bet the Ravens to cover here: