2025 NFL head coaching hot seat rumors: Ranking five under-the-radar, big-name candidates who could be fired

We're past the midway point of the 2025 NFL season, and the New York Giants just made the latest in-season coaching change of this year, dismissing Brian Daboll after three and a half seasons together.

The G-Men figure to have company when it comes to searching for a new coach, whether in the coming weeks or months. The Tennessee Titans previously fired Brian Callahan, promoting Mike McCoy to the interim job. And the Miami Dolphins may or may not start fresh depending on how Mike McDaniel finishes a roller coaster of a 2025 campaign, which already saw the AFC East squad part with longtime general manager Chris Grier.

But each hiring cycle tends to bring with it a surprise name or two. So which notable head coaches register as unexpected candidates to be replaced come 2026, especially if this season doesn't end so smoothly? Which established names could be facing more heat than expected behind closed doors? Here are five possibilities, plus our assessment on how likely they are to be dismissed at the end of 2025:

Note: We're grading the likelihood of change with a Hot Seat Truth meter, with designations as follows:

• 🔥 = Superficially Warm but Secure
• 🔥🔥 = Increasingly Combustible
• 🔥🔥🔥 = Scalding Hot

5. Matt LaFleur (Packers)

Record: 5-3-1 | Career Record: 72-36-1

Fresh off a dispiriting Monday night loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, LaFleur has struggled to correct the streakiness of an injury-tinged offense, hence The Athletic going so far as to suggest new team president Ed Policy may not be sold on the seventh-year coach beyond 2025. Yes, it's true LaFleur hasn't advanced to a conference title game since his time with Aaron Rodgers, but this is also the guy who hired Jeff Hafley, the architect of Green Bay's humming defense. Still on pace for a sixth postseason appearance in seven years, LaFleur would be snatched up in a heartbeat if the Packers were to cut him loose.

Hot Seat Truth: 🔥

4. Sean McDermott (Bills)

Record: 6-3 | Career Record: 92-48

McDermott's resume suggests he's darn near entrenched in the job for as long as he chooses; he's on track to lead Buffalo to its eighth playoff bid in nine years, producing a first-time head coaching run reminiscent of his old Eagles mentor, Andy Reid. But even with a perennial MVP candidate at his disposal in Josh Allen, the Bills have continually failed to get over the hump on the biggest stages, sometimes as a direct result of McDermott's hit-or-miss defenses. His current offensive play-caller, Joe Brady, isn't necessarily elevating the group, either, as the rival New England Patriots overtake the AFC East. Another playoff dud could be the final straw.

Hot Seat Truth: 🔥🔥

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3. Raheem Morris (Falcons)

Record: 3-6 | Career Record: 32-53

Technically, he's only a year and a half into his gig as Atlanta's head man. But Morris is now 15-22 running the team if you include his mercurial stint as an interim back in 2020, his first stint with the club. General manager Terry Fontenot may be forced to fall on the sword if the Falcons can't squeeze steadier results from young quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who replaced another underwhelming quarterback investment in Kirk Cousins. But Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson have consistently prompted double takes for their in-game decision-making. Even with young cornerstones like Bijan Robinson and Drake London, the wins aren't stacking.

Hot Seat Truth: 🔥🔥

2. Kevin Stefanski (Browns)

Record: 2-7 | Career Record: 42-51

The only reason Stefanski qualifies as an "underrated" hot seat candidate is the fact he's been so well regarded around the NFL, often propped up as the lone voice of reason in a dysfunctional franchise. He is, after all, a two-time Coach of the Year winner, notably leading Joe Flacco and Co. to a surprise playoff bid in 2023. At some point, though, the record speaks for itself. Gutted as his Andrew Berry-built rosters may be, Stefanski was part of the contingent that signed off on the disastrous Deshaun Watson deal, and he's now ceded offensive play-calling twice in two years -- a sure sign even he no longer has many answers to elevate Cleveland's perpetual rebuild.

Hot Seat Truth: 🔥🔥🔥

1. Pete Carroll (Raiders)

Record: 2-7 | Career Record: 172-127-1

Las Vegas thought it was buying long-awaited stability when it poached Carroll from quasi-retirement this offseason, pairing the former Super Bowl champion with fellow big names in minority owner Tom Brady and ex-Seattle Seahawks breakout Geno Smith. Instead, Carroll's short-sighted approach has left the Raiders looking like his age (74). He didn't necessarily inherit a world-beating lineup, but his commitment to aging familiar faces alongside maligned coordinator Chip Kelly could convince Brady, principal owner Mark Davis and Co. to make a quick pivot to longer-term leadership. Remember, current Chicago Bears coach Ben Johnson was reportedly the apple of Brady's eye last offseason; don't be stunned if another search for the "next big thing" comes soon.

Hot Seat Truth: 🔥🔥🔥