2026 NFL Draft projections: Why the five worst teams should (or should not) select a new franchise QB

A year ago at this time, the Jacksonville Jaguars were the NFL's only winless team at 0-4, while nine others were sitting at 1-3. And the top 5 draft order at the time looked like this:

1. Jacksonville
2. Miami
3. New England
4. Cincinnati
5. Cleveland

By the time the 2024 season ended, the Titans, Browns, Giants, Patriots and Jaguars were locked into the top 5 selections. Of those teams, the first three needed quarterbacks. Unfortunately, it turned out to be a thin quarterback class with Cam Ward going No. 1 and the Giants trading back into the first round to take Jaxson Dart at No. 25. 

I mention all this because a month into the 2025 NFL season, here are the teams looking at top 5 picks: New Orleans, the New York Jets, Tennessee, Cleveland and Miami. Three of them will almost certainly be in the quarterback business this offseason, either in free agency, by way of trade or through the draft. 

These 6 underdog QBs are lighting up college football, but do they have any shot at the NFL?

Cooper Petagna

And wherever you land on organizations over-drafting quarterbacks (for me, at least anecdotally, it feels like teams have gotten a little better at not reaching for them, though for every Malik Willis or Will Levis or Shedeur Sanders who falls out of the first round, there is a Trey Lance or Anthony Richardson staring you in the face), through five weeks of the college football season, the 2026 QB class isn't particularly deep.  It's fun -- in part because you can throw 15 names in a hat and whichever one you choose could as easily be QB1 as the other 14 -- but it won't be mistaken for top-heavy anytime soon.

Some of that has to do with Texas' Arch Manning struggling to live up to impossible expectations, and Clemson's Cade Klubnik and Penn State's Drew Allar looking more like Day 3 than top 3 prospects. But variety is the spice of life, and if you told me on draft night QB1 ended up being Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore or Garrett Nussmeier, or even someone else -- I'd believe you without hesitation. 

In fact, here are my top 15 quarterbacks through October 2: 

It's as wide open a race as I can remember. We could see four or five quarterbacks go in the first round, or we could see just one or two. The uncertainty is what makes it so entertaining because there is no Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence or Caleb Williams. 

Of course, the lack of certainty is what makes it decidedly not entertaining for those NFL teams searching for a franchise quarterback. Which brings us back to those teams currently staring at those first five picks in the 2026 draft.  

How bad do they need a quarterback? What would be their best course of action if the draft were today? Let's have some fun. 

1. New Orleans Saints (0-4)

On a scale of 1-10, how bad do they need a QB: "8 … but buyer beware"

We know they need a quarterback because they drafted Tyler Shough 40th overall back in April. He has yet to see the field (save mop-up duty in a blowout loss) because 2024 fifth-rounder Spencer Rattler has started the first four games. And in Rattler's defense, he's been fine -- he ranks 22nd in EPA per dropback, between Aaron Rodgers and Michael Penix Jr., so yeah, it could be a lot worse. The problem is that the offense is managing just 16.5 points per game, which ranks 28th in the league. He also has only one (!!) play this season of more than 25+ yards, which ranks dead last and they've been abysmal on third down. The defense, meanwhile, gives up more than 30 points a game, is among the worst in the league at allowing big plays and can't get off the field on third down.

What should they do?

Knowing the issues facing both the offense and defense should help inform our decision here. It's also worth noting that coach Kellen Moore didn't draft Rattler, and although he did draft Shough, neither was a first-round pick, which makes them easier to move on from. 

But here's the thing: this 2026 QB class is so wide open that I'm not sure any of them are a slam-dunk improvement over the status quo in New Orleans, so it's worth blowing the first-overall pick on one of them. The Saints have needs along the offense line, at wide receiver, tight end and edge rusher, and while it's easy to declare, "Hey, just trade down and enjoy!" that requires a partner willing to trade up.  

Put another way, unless Mendoza or Moore or Nussmeier or someone else clearly differentiates themselves from the pack -- and it doesn't have to be a Joe Burrow "Not even the Bengals can mess this up" situation, but a "Hey, Cam Ward is legit and a clearcut No. 1 pick"-type of thing -- if I'm the Saints, I would draft Miami edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. and get on with my day. Bain Jr. is the walking embodiment of what unblockable looks like. I liked him a lot during summer scouting, and he's exceeded every expectation by a large margin. 

The other thing to keep in mind is that Moore has a good track record with young passers. But it doesn't matter how much of a QB whisperer you may be, if you don't have players around him, it won't matter. This class is uniquely different from previous ones in that there could be four or five quarterbacks clustered together in the late-first/early Day 2 range, which further reinforces the idea of not reaching for one of them because there will be two or three others available later in the draft.

2. New York Jets (0-4)

On a scale of 1-10, how bad do they need a QB: "10 … and here's the one for you"

This isn't all on Justin Fields, but we know who he is at this point and it's not a long-term answer at franchise quarterback. Like previous stops in Chicago and Pittsburgh, we've seen glimpses of brilliance from Fields and it's just enough to lure you back into believing that maybe this is the year it all comes together. Then the stark reminders appear, like they always do: the inability to consistently get through his reads, or throw on time, or throw with touch and anticipation -- all things that are requirements for success in the league. 

What should they do?

If it was unclear above for the Saints, given that Rattler has been serviceable, there's no question that the Jets have to take another swing at a first-round quarterback. The last three first-round QBs in New York? Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold and Mark Sanchez. Sanchez was the most successful and not because he was the most physically gifted; it was because the Jets had a great defense and a solid run game. And while I know things are bleak now, I think Darren Mougey and Aaron Glenn are well aware that this isn't a one-year-turnaround-type situation. It's going to be a process, though one without much room for error. 

The defense has been underwhelming through the first month, but there's no reason it can't be a top 10 unit. And the Jets got it right with their 2025 first-rounder, right tackle Armand Membou, now they need to continue to add pieces to the offense, especially at wide receiver and, of course, quarterback. 

Let's assume that the Saints do take Rueben Bain Jr. No. 1 overall. If I'm the Jets, based on what I've seen so far, I'm taking Oregon QB Dante Moore. He's currently my QB2, but I could easily see him as the first quarterback off the board. He's coming off an impressive overtime win on the road against Penn State, but his 2025 season to date has been clinical. He's consistently poised in the pocket, even with pressure in his face, and has a big arm capable of making tight-window throws or layering the ball over second-level defenders. And for as good as Moore is in structure, he might be better out of structure; his mobility, playmaking-ability, accuracy and overall decision-making shine when the play breaks down.

3. Tennessee Titans (0-4)

On a scale of 1-10, how bad do they need a QB: "0 … but I have a plan"

Every week on "With the First Pick," the NFL Draft podcast I co-host with former Titans GM Ran Carthon, we talk about the rookie quarterbacks and how they fared the previous week. In previous years, it was hard to watch Bryce Young's rookie season because he didn't look anything like the Alabama Bryce. There were similar frustrations with Anthony Richardson. There have been no such issues with Cam Ward, who has been really good under some incredibly trying circumstances in Tennessee. 

For all the "Hero ball" concerns we had about Ward coming out of college, he's been much better about playing on time. He still has his moments, but compared to recent rookie starters, he plays like a grizzled veteran; he throws with anticipation and touch, but when he needs to step on a throw, he can do that too without losing any accuracy. He'll still try to make the big play when the checkdown might be advisable, but it's less frequently than we saw last season at the University of Miami, and better than I would've imagined through his first four games. 

What should they do?

If we're listing all the problems currently facing the Titans, "quarterback" is at the very bottom of the list. 

Despite recently using first-round picks on the offensive line, reinforcements are needed. And while the team tried to address the skill positions with this draft class, more are needed because receivers continue to struggle to get open. On defense, you can never have enough edge rushers, and the secondary could use some depth, if not an outright overhaul.

The Titans got calls a year ago about trading out of the first-overall pick. They stayed put and it was the right decision. This time, they should look to move down, perhaps a considerable distance, to acquire some picks and restock the roster. 

And you might say what I pointed out above: "You need a partner if you're going to trade down." And this is where I note that teams currently picking late in the first round -- like the Steelers or Colts (Daniel Jones is on a one-year deal) or Rams (who have two first-round picks), or even the Vikings -- could all be looking for quarterbacks. You only need one of them to fall in love. 

Let's assume the Titans trade down to No. 20, pick up a couple of Day 2 picks (and maybe even a future first) for their troubles, and are able to parlay that into Alabama offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor and USC wide receiver Makai Lemon. Proctor, who was my OT1 in the summer, struggled in September, but we saw glimpses of who he can be against Georgia. He has the tools to be a dominant player. Lemon, meanwhile, gives the Titans what they so desperately lack: some legit juice at wide receiver. He can win at all three levels, and even though he primarily works out of the slot, he can take over games both on offense and as a returner.

4. Cleveland Browns (1-3)

On a scale of 1-10, how bad do they need a QB: "7.5 … but we'll know more with Gabriel (and Sanders?)"

I wrote earlier this week about why the Browns' benching of Joe Flacco for Dillon Gabriel could put them right back in the mix in the wide-open AFC North. In part because coach Kevin Stefanski is underrated at getting the most out of his signal callers, in part because general manager Andrew Berry crushed the 2025 draft and every non-QB selected has been impactful, and in part because Jim Schwartz's defense means that if the Browns can muster even a replacement-level offense, they'll be in games every single week. 

Now if we find out that Gabriel, a 2025 third-rounder, isn't capable of being the point guard for this offense (because that's what he'll have to be -- more facilitator than playmaker … and that's OK because you can win that way, just look at Bo Nix, Sean Payton and the Broncos), we'll probably see fifth-rounder Shedeur Sanders at some point this season. Because the Browns, who have two first-rounders in '26, have to know what they have in the QB room since it will inform just about every decision they'll make in the offseason.

What should they do?

If Gabriel or Sanders proves they can handle the job, that's great news. History suggests it's a long shot; as it stands, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy and Jake Browning are the only starting NFL quarterbacks heading into Week 5 who were drafted after the second round (and Prescott only fell to the 4th round because of off-field issues prior to the draft). Gabriel will join them, and maybe we'll see Sanders, too, but the point remains: it's more likely than not that the Browns are still searching for a QB in five months.

If Cleveland needs a QB… If, as I've written above, the Saints take Bain Jr., the Jets take Moore and the Titans trade down, that means the Browns will probably be looking at QB3 (assuming that whichever team trades with Tennessee is also in the QB business). If, say, Fernando Mendoza is drafted third overall, that leaves Garrett Nussmeier, John Mateer (who had surgery on a broken hand and will miss a month of the college season), Ty Simpson, Jayden Maiava and Carson Beck, based on my latest rankings. 

Nussmeier, just like last season, continues to struggle with consistency; Mateer is wildly exciting but undersized and currently injured; Simpson is intriguing because in some ways he's a more athletic, bigger-armed Mac Jones coming out of Alabama; Maiava is a 6-foot-4 athletic marvel with a big arm who can play from the pocket; and Beck has revitalized his draft stock down in Coral Gables. 

Which one of these names best fits in Cleveland? The better question might be, which one of these names best complements what the Browns are trying to do on offense? As quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator in Minnesota, Stefanski watched Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins have career years, and Baker Mayfield had a breakout 2020 campaign, Stefanski's first in Cleveland, when the team won 11 games and advanced to the playoffs. Mateer, Simpson and Maiava are the three names I'd circle as the best fits, but that would also be contingent on the Browns using their other first-round pick (currently No. 22) and subsequent draft picks to fix the offensive line and draft some difference-makers at wide receiver. 

If Cleveland doesn't need a QB… I'll just paraphrase what I wrote in the sentence above: the Browns should use their first-round pick(s) -- and subsequent draft picks -- to fix the offensive line and draft some difference-makers at wide receiver. 

Because if they get the quarterback right, they're going to win a lot of football games.

5. Miami Dolphins (1-3)

On a scale of 1-10, how bad do they need a QB: "4 … we're not actively looking, but that doesn't mean we're not interested"

Tua Tagovailoa is signed through the 2028 season, though the Dolphins could move on from him after 2026 with a $34.8 million cap hit, according to Spotrac. But, as sluggish as this offense looked over the first few weeks, Tagovailoa is still 17th in EPA per dropback -- between Bo Nix and Caleb Williams -- and is one of the best passers vs. blitzes of six or more defenders. His seven touchdowns are tied for 8th in the league, though only Jake Browning, Joe Flacco and Geno Smith have thrown more interceptions (Tagovailoa has four).

What should they do?

When Tua is healthy and Mike McDaniel's offense is firing on all cylinders, there is no better QB equipped to run it. Unfortunately, the Ferrari works best on freshly paved interstates where there's plenty of room to open things up and no fear of potholes. As soon as the conditions are less than perfect -- even if just a little bit -- everything's thrown off. And lord help us if it's a dirt-road detour because this offense suddenly becomes unrecognizable. It doesn't help that Tyreek Hill is lost for the season with a knee injury, but the larger point is that this is bigger than any one player, even Tua. 

There were signs of life against the Bengals in Week 4, but without Burrow, Cincinnati is effectively a homecoming opponent, the NFL's version of the Washington Generals. And if changes are coming -- at head coach, in the front office, on the roster -- then you have to wonder how Tagovailoa might fit with the next regime. Brian Flores, McDaniel's predecessor in Miami, reportedly wanted to move on from Tua before he was fired. Another coach might feel similarly, though I'd argue that the Dolphins aren't one QB away from fixing all that ails them, especially when they could be looking at QB4 as the Plan B.

I'd be inclined to keep Tua, in part because of his contract, in part because he's shown he's capable when the players are around him. I'd instead focus my draft efforts on fixing the offensive line, restocking the wide receiver room and fixing a depleted secondary.