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It's the matchup most people saw coming when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Monday. These teams had the two best records in the league, with Oklahoma City finishing the regular season 64-18 and San Antonio going 62-20. It's also a matchup of elite superstars. OKC's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was named MVP for the second straight year on Sunday, while Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama finished third in MVP voting and has been a dominant force in the 2026 NBA Playoffs. Oklahoma City is a 6.5-point home favorite and the game total is set at 220.5 for Game 1, according to the latest NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

San Antonio's De'Aaron Fox (ankle) and Luke Kornet (foot) are both listed as questionable -- but both played in Friday's clincher against Minnesota -- while OKC will welcome back Jalen Williams, who is officially off the injury report after recovering from a hamstring issue. For Monday's Game 1, we're offering up the NBA best bets for Spurs vs. Thunder using the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times. The model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. 

The model entered the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. So let's dive into the best NBA bets today for Game 7 with all odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Check out the FanDuel promo code before placing bets on the NBA Playoffs on Monday.

NBA Playoffs picks, best bets for Monday, May 18

  • Under 220.5
  • Jalen Williams Over 15.5 points
  • Victor Wembanyama Under 12.5 rebounds

Under 220.5

Both of these teams can score a ton of points, but they're also two of the top defensive teams in the NBA. They are in the top three in playoff scoring, averaging a combined 238 points per game, but they allow an average of just 207 combined. The SportsLine model expects the defenses to prevail in Game 1, as it projects the teams will total 215 points. Under 220.5 is hitting in 58.6% of simulations. San Antonio is 52-42 to the Under this season, and the Under has hit in the past six meetings between these teams in Oklahoma City.     

Jalen Williams Over 15.5 points

Williams has played just twice in the playoffs, missing the past six games, but he averaged 20.5 points in those two games and scored 17.1 per contest during the regular season. The 2025 All-Star has missed a lot of time this season but has gone Over this number in eight of his past 11 games. Williams also averaged 21.4 points in last year's playoffs. The Spurs are going to focus on Gilgeous-Alexander, so others will need to rally. The SportsLine props model pegs Williams for 18.1 points in Game 1.

Victor Wembanyama Under 12.5 rebounds

This is a pretty high line for Wemby, and the props model is projecting him to grab 11.6 rebounds. He has been dominant in the postseason and is averaging 10.7 boards in the playoffs after grabbing 11.5 in the regular season. The 2023 first overall pick has gone Over this number in five of his past 10 games. This series is going to be a battle, and OKC is going to do everything it can to keep The Alien in check. It might not totally succeed, but the model is going Under on this rebound line.