The Philadelphia Phillies look to secure the series win when they battle the Pittsburgh Pirates in the fourth and final game of their National League matchup on Thursday afternoon. Philadelphia earned a 10-6 win on Wednesday night. The Pirates (43-44), who have lost two in a row, are 20-22 on the road this season. The Phillies (49-38), who have won three of five, are 25-20 on their home field in 2026.
First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. The Phillies have won nine of the last 13 meetings. Philadelphia is a -129 favorite on the money line (risk $129 to win $100) in the latest Pirates vs. Phillies odds, while the over/under, is 10.5. Before making any Pirates vs. Phillies picks, be sure to see the Pirates vs. Phillies predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and entered Week 15 of the MLB season on a sizzling 25-14 run on all top-rated MLB picks. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anyone following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Pirates vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Pirates:
Pirates vs. Phillies money line | Pirates +108, Phillies -129 |
Pirates vs. Phillies over/under | 10.5 runs |
Pirates vs. Phillies run line | Phillies -1.5 (+148) |
Pirates vs. Phillies picks | See picks at SportsLine |
Pirates vs. Phillies streaming | Fubo (Try for free) |
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Top Pirates vs. Phillies predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Pirates vs. Phillies, the model is going Under 10.5 combined runs for over/under betting. The Under has hit in six of the past 10 head-to-head meetings. The Under has also hit in 21 of the last 41 Pittsburgh road games. The Under is 11-9 in the last 20 games when Philadelphia's money line is between -116 and -146.
SportsLine's model projects 1.7 total bases or more for the Pirates' Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds and Ryan O'Hearn. The Phillies, meanwhile, are projected to get over 1.7 total bases or more from just Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. The model projects the teams to combine for 10.1 total runs as the Under has all the value. Get the Pirates vs. Phillies money-line pick at SportsLine.
How to make Pirates vs. Phillies picks
After simulating every pitch of Pirates vs. Phillies 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Pirates vs. Phillies, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.
