MLB playoff picks: NLDS, ALDS odds and best bets as Brewers, Dodgers go for sweeps

Happy Wednesday to all, this is the last day of the year -- barring some sort of weather-induced circumstance -- that we'll see four playoff games in the same day. While we're at it, some people like a little extra action in terms of a gambling play or two, so let's make some picks. This is the fourth straight day we've done this and I've gone 5-3 so far. 

The lines today are courtesy of Caesars.

Mariners over 3.5 runs (-143)

I'm surprised this has remained at 3.5 instead of going up to 4.5. We hit on it Tuesday and we're back to play it again. It bears repeating that the Mariners have an underrated offense by virtue of their home ballpark suppressing offense with such proficiency. On the road this season, the Mariners were third in the majors in runs, third in batting average, second in OPS and tied for first in home runs. They can rake on the road. We saw it in Game 1 when they scored eight runs, which included three home runs. 

Casey Mize takes the ball for the Tigers and he had a 4.04 ERA after the All-Star break. Plus, the Mariners have seen all the Tigers can offer from the bullpen so far and should be familiar by now. 

Also, if you don't like the juice here, you could play an alternate line of 4.5 at plus money.

Brewers +105 vs. Cubs

I made a mistake heading into this series by picking the Cubs. The Brewers are the much better team in every facet at this point. They won Game 1 with nine runs despite not hitting a home run. In Game 2, they scored seven runs that all came via the homer. They play good defense, they have an assembly line of power bullpen arms and starter Quinn Priester was 6-1 with a 3.01 ERA in the second half. 

On the Cubs' end, their power numbers look good or even great, but they just haven't been the same team since late June. So much of their numbers are buoyed by the early season offensive juggernaut they were. Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong were scary in the box then. They aren't now. 

The Brewers break out the brooms in Wrigley.

Aaron Nola under 8.5 outs recorded (+115)

I can't believe the Phillies are attaching their season to the 2025 version of Aaron Nola, at least not for long enough to lose this bet. The Dodgers hit righties well and they slug at home. Nola had a 6.01 ERA and negative WAR in 17 starts this season. He did throw well in two of his last four outings, including his very last one. It's just that in between those two good ones were two bad ones and the final start came against the lowly Twins. 

Even though he was bad in his last three starts, Ranger Suárez feels like a better option, which leads me to believe he'll be involved here with the Phillies' backs against the wall. Maybe this is a situation where the Phillies try to get Nola through the batting order once, at most, before going to Suárez? Even if that's the plan, they can't fall behind by many runs against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. 

I just don't think Nola is finishing the third here, whether it's by design or he's just not good enough to last.