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Welcome, Happy Friday and, more importantly Happy Independence Day. One of the hallmarks of every summer in America is watching baseball on the Fourth of July while cooking out and looking forward to fireworks. So let's get to it. The Friday night lines are Fourth of July lines this time around. 

The odds are from DraftKings.

Brewers (-126) at Marlins

The Brewers have done an awful lot of winning recently, but also just enough losing here in the past few days that this feels like a good spot. To elaborate for those who haven't paid close attention, the Brewers had won 12 of 16  through Wednesday's win in the day portion of the doubleheader against the Mets. They've also lost three of four. They now face a Marlins team that has been playing far above its ceiling, having won nine of its last 10 games. 

Even if we didn't have the pitching matchups, I'd love the Brewers here by virtue of being the better team, facing a team that is due to start stacking losses. 

The pitching matchup, however, gives us Sandy Alcantara on the Marlins' side with his 6.98 ERA this season. He recently strung together four reasonable starts in a row and it looked like the former Cy Young winner might be getting right again, but then last time out he allowed seven runs on 10 hits in six innings. I like the Brewers' offense to torch him. 

Dodgers -1.5 (+113) vs. Astros

It might be annoying, but bettors should embrace the Dodgers becoming world-beaters because it's an easy avenue to making some bank. The Dodgers fell into a first-place tie with the Giants on June 13, but since then have gone 15-3 with a +36 run differential. Thanks to the Astros being great, we get a plus-money price on this run line, but the Dodgers are still going to bring it home. They are a ridiculous 33-14 at Dodger Stadium and the Astros are starting Lance McCullers Jr. In eight starts this year, he has a 6.61 ERA and was torched by the Cubs last time out. The Dodgers have the perfect lineup -- power lefties like Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, to start -- to destroy a lighter-throwing right-hander like McCullers. 

On the other side, Dodgers starter Ben Casparius has been one of the more underrated pitchers this season. He had a terrible outing last time out, but otherwise has been very good and I like that the Astros have never seen him before. 

The expectation here is this game will end up a multi-run Dodgers win, which means we'll grab the plus money on the run line. 

Home run play: Matt Olson (+330)

Olson is in a good stretch of swinging the bat right now. He's on a 10-game hitting streak during which he's slashing .381/.435/.548, but he only has one home run in there. That means we've got a symposium between "he's due" and "he's hot right now" and, boy, that feels like the perfect storm. 

Could it be more perfect? Maybe! Olson, who swings left-handed, faces Orioles' right-hander Charlie Morton, who has a 5.63 ERA with 10 homers allowed in 72 innings this season. 

Futures play: Padres to make the playoffs (+105)

I listed the Brewers to make the playoffs last week, so it looks like I have my NL playoff field: Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Brewers and Padres. I'm good with that. 

Basically, the plus money here is what caught my eye. The Padres have been in playoff position all season. The recent skid from the Giants opens things up a bit, too. Further, the Padres have one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball, a slate that includes seven more games against the Rockies and three against teams like the White Sox, Twins, Nationals, Orioles and Marlins. 

I do not trust the Giants at all. I believe the Diamondbacks are going to fall far enough out of the race before the trade deadline to do a soft sell. I don't really trust the Cardinals, either, so that leaves the Brewers and Padres to snare the last two NL playoff spots after the four obvious strong teams.