MLB free agency: Predicting landing spots for top players, including Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and more
With free agency officially now open, your CBS Sports experts take a look at which teams make the most sense
Free agency is officially open. As of Thursday, five days after the Los Angeles Dodgers clinched their second consecutive World Series title, eligible players are able to talk to and negotiate with all 30 teams with the hopes of finding their new employer. Some will get long-term deals worth more than most of us could ever dream of.
So who goes where? That's for agents and general managers to figure out. As for your CBS Sports experts? Let the guessing games begin.
Kyle Tucker, No. 1
R.J. Anderson: I'll say Dodgers. They could use another outfield bat something bad, and he's the best one available. Money isn't going to an issue, obviously, and if it's even close it only makes sense for Tucker to end up out west.
Mike Axisa: The Dodgers and Yankees seem likely to get involved, maybe the Mets too, but I'm going to go off the board a bit: Giants. Maybe that's not THAT off the board. I think the Giants are being underrated a bit now though. Even after taking on Rafael Devers and his entire contract, they have money to spend, and my hunch is POBO Buster Posey will have more success closing the deal with top free agents than his predecessor, Farhan Zaidi. Tucker fills a need for the Giants and I'll say he's the big-name free agent who breaks the seal and goes to San Francisco.
Dayn Perry: I'd love to get unconventional here, but it just seems like Tucker-to-Dodgers makes too much sense to ignore. They need corner outfield help, they still prioritize building the best roster possible, and as the reigning champs they're obviously an appealing destination. The best team gets the best free agent, maybe without even making the highest offer.
Matt Snyder: I'll go with Tucker to the Phillies. They can move Nick Castellanos to left field to accommodate a player with Tucker's high-level of talent and they need help in the outfield anyway. Grabbing the 28-year-old Tucker is a good way to keep the current window of contention open while also having a bridge to him as a centerpiece in the future. Remember, Bryce Harper is now 33 years old.
Alex Bregman, No. 2
R.J. Anderson: If not the Red Sox, you could make a strong case for the Tigers, Mets, and Phillies. I'll go with the Mets here because I'm not confident that the Tigers will pony up -- not when they passed on a golden opportunity to do it for Bregman just last offseason.
Mike Axisa: I'll say the Mets. I'd put the chances Pete Alonso returns to New York at less than 50% and the Mets will need to replace his middle-of-the-lineup righty bat. Also, the Mets have to improve their infield defense. It is an absolute must and Bregman would do that. Signing him would also free up the club to trade Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and/or Mark Vientos. After the disappointing season they just had, it figures to be easier for the Mets to turn the page on Alonso, but I also don't think they'll sit out the top of the free-agent market. So, Bregman it is.
Dayn Perry: Sometimes the boring answer is the most reasonable one. Bregman goes back to Boston. They're quite likely to contend in 2026 and probably beyond thanks to the young talent base, Bregman fills a need for them and the role of veteran stabilizer, and his relationship with manager Alex Cora is a strong one. This time, it's a multi-year pairing between club and free agent.
Matt Snyder: I like the Mets here. It seems that Pete Alonso is out the door and Bregman helps alleviate some of that loss offensively while also improving the defense by taking over at third and kicking Mark Vientos to first base. Yes, I still have hope for Vientos to be more 2024 than 2025 and having to concentrate less on defense (yes, first base is important, but it's so much less stressful than third base) will help matters there.
Bo Bichette, No. 3
R.J. Anderson: The big question with Bichette's free agency is what teams view him as defensively. If they're OK tolerating his glovework at shortstop, at least in the near term, that really opens up his suitors pool. Maybe you get a team like the Braves or the Yankees in on him. If, instead, he's treated as an offensive-minded second baseman, that changes matters. The Blue Jays are a fit for him either way. I'll pick them just because it would be cool to see him stick with Toronto.
Mike Axisa: Going back to Toronto is such an easy call. I'll put it at 99% Blue Jays and 1% the field just because you never truly know with free agency, but I think Bichette heads back. It'll happen fairly early in the offseason too. It wouldn't surprise me to see a deal done before the winter meetings begin on Dec. 7. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Bichette slide over to second base full-time in 2026. It suits him better defensively and Andrés Giménez is more than capable at short. Giménez at short and Bichette at second should be the long-term double play combination for Toronto, not vice versa.
Dayn Perry: I think the vibes of winning the pennant plus the lifer status and the organization's commitment to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. all make a return to Toronto the strongest possibility for Bichette. Coming off a strong bounce-back season and with the Jays in contending mode, Bichette will go back to where it all started.
Matt Snyder: After the run to the World Series, the Blue Jays have plenty of incentive to keep Bichette around and also the cash on hand to pay what it takes. He's not going anywhere.
Framber Valdez, No. 4
R.J. Anderson: I toyed with the Mets and the Red Sox here, among others, but I'll go with the Giants. They ranked in the top 10 in ground-ball percentage by starting pitchers last season, and pairing Valdez with Logan Webb atop their rotation would give them an effective one-two punch as they try to catch up in the NL West.
Mike Axisa: It crossed my mind that the Orioles could get involved given their need for pitching and Valdez's history with POBO Mike Elias from his time with the Astros, but a) that stuff can get overrated in free agency, and b) I'm not sold on the O's spending at the level it will take to get Valdez. So, I'll put him down for the Cubs, who walked away from Shota Imanaga and have a pretty big hole in the rotation with Justin Steele still rehabbing from elbow surgery. I think Valdez is the free agent most likely to sign with a Mystery Team in January or February.
Dayn Perry: If the Mets are going to turn the page on a disappointing 2025, then they'll probably need a true frontline presence in the rotation. Valdez is that, and he's been one of most reliable starting pitchers in all of baseball over the last half decade. It says here Steve Cohen will meet the ask and fortify the Mets for a run at the NL East title in 2026.
Matt Snyder: The Giants are trying to return to the playoffs and have money to spend. I like Valdez in that ballpark and along with Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, the Giants would have the chance at three veteran frontline starters in front of Landen Roupp and possibly Trevor McDonald or Kai-Wei Teng.
Kyle Schwarber, No. 5
R.J. Anderson: I would think the Phillies. Dave Dombrowski has shown a willingness to sign middle-of-the-order bats to big contracts at his prior stops in Detroit and Boston. Schwarber remains an important part of that lineup and, unless they get involved in the Tucker or Bregman sweepstakes, I don't see how they manage to maintain or improve their lineup while losing Schwarber elsewhere.
Mike Axisa: It has to be the Phillies, right? I think the chances Schwarber goes back to Philadelphia are higher than the chances Bichette goes back to the Blue Jays. Let's call it 99.5% Phillies and 0.5% the field. I know the Phillies want to change up their offense after another quick postseason exit, but Schwarber's a guy you keep and build around. The beloved 50-homer dude with the offensive skill set that tends to age well (power and plate discipline) isn't the guy you let walk when your World Series window is as open as it's going to get. It'll be too many years and too many dollars for a DH, for sure. That's what it takes though. I think Schwarber re-signing with Philadelphia is as close to a lock as anything this offseason.
Dayn Perry: While some retooling in Philly is possible coming off another disappointing playoff showing, I don't think Dave Dombrowski is ready to lose his best hitter. There's some risk in Schwarber's profile as he ages, but he still crushes the ball and exhibits patience at the plate. As well, Philly is very much in win-now mode and Schwarber checks that box in a big way. He'll be back.
Matt Snyder: The Phillies are the likeliest path here, but if they decide to sign Kyle Tucker as I predicted above, it's possible Schwarber heads elsewhere. If he does, there's a perfect fit with his original team in the Cubs. They need more home run power, there's plenty of familiarity here and there's an open DH spot, as things stand. It's a nice fit. The issue will be getting Tom Ricketts to open up his pocketbook, but with a familiar face, it seems possible.
