We're just over one week away from finalizing the Major League Baseball playoff field for the 2026 season, but we're starting to get a pretty good idea. There have been four clinchers so far, as we know the Rays and Yankees are playoff-bound, while the Brewers and Dodgers have won their respective divisions.
Let's have a little fun here and not only predict how the playoff field will look, but take it a step further and predict each round as well. We did this last week, but things happened in the ensuing days and some things are different now.
Predicting the playoff field
Aaron Judge leaving the Yankees' game on Wednesday has me nervous enough that I'm not going to put the Yankees ahead of the Rays for the one seed. Also, the Guardians winning the series over the White Sox changed things in the AL Central and though the White Sox are reeling pretty badly right now, they'll still hold onto a playoff berth. In the AL West, no one is impressive but the Astros are the best of the sorry bunch. That leaves us lined up like so (note that the Red Sox are going to have the third-best record in the league and be stuck at the five seed due to the divisional imbalance this season):
American League seed projections
1. Rays
2. Guardians
3. Astros
4. Yankees
5. Red Sox
6. White Sox
Over on the National League side, six of the nine remaining Dodgers games come against the Giants, and they'll dominate those enough to jump over the Brewers for the best record in baseball. The Braves have moved enough away from the Phillies that I'll keep them as the NL East winner this week and that demotes the Phillies down to the second wild-card spot.
This gives us the NL field of six:
National League seed projections
1. Dodgers
2. Brewers
3. Braves
4. Cubs
5. Phillies
6. Padres
The Diamondbacks still finish with three games against the Padres, so they've got a shot, but I'm sticking with San Diego.
Predicting the playoffs
Wild Card Series
As a reminder, the Wild Card Series is a three-game series with all three in the same venue, hosted by the better seed.
- Red Sox over Yankees
- Astros over White Sox
The Yankees' offense without a fully functional Judge hibernates at times, and it'll cost them against a very good Red Sox pitching staff. As for the other series, the White Sox have just run out of gas.
- Cubs over Phillies
- Padres over Braves
The Phillies don't have enough depth to deal with the injury concerns in the rotation, not to mention Cristopher Sánchez's struggles of late. The Cubs' offense is too good for whatever the Phillies run out there. Also, I love the Padres in a short series here where they'll lose to Chris Sale in Game 1 but take Games 2 and 3 in Atlanta.
Divisional Series
Next up is the divisional round, a best-of-five. We don't reseed. It's the No. 1 seed against the 4/5 winner and then the No. 2 against the 3/6 winner.
- Red Sox over Rays
- Guardians over Astros
Only roughly half of the Rays' offense is scary and the Red Sox's pitching staff is capable of neutralizing it. Just avoid facing Junior Caminero with runners on. On the other side, I refuse to advance the Astros any further in protest over them being .500 so late in the season and grabbing a three seed. The Guardians aren't much more impressive, so a mediocre team is getting to the ALCS regardless.
- Brewers over Padres
- Cubs over Dodgers
The Brewers are too good to succumb to the Padres, even if the Padres are on fire right now. The Dodgers appear hot, too, but do you know the time they won a series over a team that is currently above .500? It's a long way back. It was July 20-22 when they took two of three from the Phillies. This isn't like some weird stretch in the schedule where they hardly played any good teams, either. Since that series, they've lost series to the Red Sox, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Brewers and Braves. I have concerns about Shohei Ohtani and Blake Snell now, too. The two-time defending champs are vulnerable. The Cubs take advantage here with the shocker.
Championship Series
Now onto the LCS!
- Red Sox over Guardians
Whoever emerges from the AL East death march side of the bracket has a cakewalk here. The Guardians just aren't good enough to play in the ALCS but got here by default. I'm open to picking the Rays and Yankees to come out of the AL, too, but only these three teams are worthy of discussion for a pennant.
- Brewers over Cubs
Even after toppling the mighty Dodgers, the Cubs continue to be owned by the Brewers, who will eliminate them for the second straight season after winning the Central four straight times and five of the last six seasons.
World Series
- Brewers over Red Sox
The number of MLB franchises to have never won a World Series shrinks to four as the Brewers take their first-ever title.
