The Tampa Bay Rays took their first step toward a baseball miracle with their 12th-inning comeback win over the Milwaukee Brewers in Tuesday's Game 4 of the World Series. That 4-3 victory means the Rays avoided the sweep and cut the Brewers' series lead to 3-1. That sets the stage for Wednesday's Game 5.
Tuesday's escape for the Rays was obviously an essential one, as it was an elimination game. The win also nudged the Rays' chances of winning the series from "all but impossible" to "merely a longshot." Across all of Major League Baseball postseason history, 42 teams have been down 3-0, and only one – the 2004 Boston Red Sox – has come back to win the series in question. That is, history suggests the Rays had a mere 2.4% chance of pulling off the miracle comeback when they were down 3-0. Now, though, they're down 3-1.
In all, 96 teams have been down 3-1 in a best-of-seven MLB postseason series, and 14 of them have clawed back to win the series. That particular data set says the Rays have a 14.6% chance of stunning the Brewers and winning this Fall Classic. Those aren't great odds, obviously, but they're much better than the odds the Rays were facing going into Game 4. Interestingly, teams down 3-1 have a .500 record in Game 5.
Speaking of which, that brings us to three questions for Game 5 – the answers to which will determine whether the Rays can cut the Brewers' advantage to 3-2 and send the series back to Milwaukee. Let's get to it.
Who's going to pitch for the Rays?
Here's the big one. Rays manager Kevin Cash wisely managed Game 4 for what it was – a must-win contest. That means you worry about tomorrow when tomorrow comes and tactically do everything possible to survive the elimination game. Tomorrow, though, has now arrived, and Cash must figure out how to deploy his pitching staff for another elimination game after using seven arms on Tuesday.
The most notable Game 4 decision was using Nick Martinez, who had been slated to start Game 5, in relief. Martinez worked two scoreless innings out of the bullpen and threw 33 pitches. It'll be another all-hands-on-deck affair on Wednesday, but just who those hands will be is another matter. Griffin Jax started Game 4 for Tampa Bay and amassed 74 pitches, which presumably rules him out for Game 5.
As for the traditional relievers, Cole Sulser, Steven Matz, and Garrett Cleavinger did not pitch on Tuesday and thus can probably expect to be used in Game 5. Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly did pitch in Game 4 but they didn't pitch in Monday's Game 3 blowout loss, which means they're presumably available. Ian Seymour also didn't pitch in Game 3, but his 32-pitch workload in Game 4 may rule him out. Tyler Wells and Cameron Booser have each pitched two days in a row, but desperate straits in October may mean they'll be called upon again. Is Drew Rasmussen available? He started Game 2 in Milwaukee, which means he'll be on three days of rest for Game 5. He's never made a short-rest start in his career to date.
Given the stakes involved, anyone who's even a remotely feasible option will probably tell Cash he's willing to pitch. As such, Cash's decisions on whom to trust and whom to assign the plurality of innings will be fascinating and perhaps determinative.
Will Jacob Misiorowski be in peak form?
No such dilemmas are to be found for Pat Murphy and the Brewers, at least insofar as their Game 5 starter is concerned. Jacob Misiorowski, the 24-year-old NL Cy Young favorite and the hardest-throwing starting pitcher anyone's ever seen, on Wednesday will make his fourth start of these playoffs. Last time out, Misiorowski in Game 1 against the Rays went five innings and permitted only one run en route to picking up the win. "Miz" also enjoyed a velocity bump compared to his prior run of starts.
However, he was coming off 11 days of rest in that start, and for his Game 5 trip to the bump he'll be on the standard four days of rest. He's well into career-high-workload territory in 2026, so it remains to be seen whether the sizzle he showed in the series opener will be back for Game 5. The Brewers could use some length from him given how hard the bullpen worked in Game 4.
Is Junior Caminero 100%?
The Rays' best hitter and one of the richest power sources in all of baseball had to exit Game 4 in the 12th inning not long after reaching base on Joey Ortiz's throwing error. He did so because of an injury to his left foot. From afar, this seems like the kind of knock that would earn Caminero a few days off had it occurred in, say, June, but this is very much not June. "He'll play tomorrow on one leg," Cash said of Caminero after Game 4. "I'll make sure of it."
The heart of the matter is whether Caminero will be in top form less than 24 hours after sustaining the injury. That's worth pondering in light of his ongoing power outage. Caminero this postseason has a respectable .717 OPS, but he has only one home run in 48 at-bats. That's after hitting a whopping 42 homers during the regular season and averaging one every 14.7 at-bats. It's quite possible that the Rays will need some customary thump from the hard-hitting 23-year-old if they're going to extend the series. That we shall see.
