Free MLB home run picks, odds for Sept. 28: Michael Busch among best bets for Sunday HR player props

Chicago Cubs third baseman Michael Busch is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He has homered in three of his last four games and was the victim of some gamesmanship on Saturday, with Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol opting to walk him in a four-run game rather than allow him to hit when he only needed a single to hit for the cycle. That should add a little fuel to the fire on Sunday in a Cubs vs. Cardinals rivalry matchup to close out the season, where pride will be the only thing on the line with St. Louis eliminated and Chicago set for a NL Wild Card matchup against the Padres on Tuesday.

Busch is priced as high as +575 in today's MLB home run odds, and he's one of our top MLB HR picks for Sunday with first pitch scheduled for 3:20 p.m. ET. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to get $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 39.44 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after calling Vinnie Pasquantino (+455) and Francisco Lindor (+420) to homer on Thursday and Colson Montgomery (+500) on Friday and (+392) Saturday, and then Hunter Goodman (+492) as well on Saturday. It also nailed two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Sunday, September 28:

• Brandon Lowe, Rays (+525)
• Colson Montgomery, White Sox (+385)
• Michael Busch, Cubs (+575)
• Parlay these picks for +19306 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

MLB Best Home Run Bets 9/28

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Brandon Lowe, Rays (+525, BetMGM)

Lowe is just 2-for-11 in his career against Kevin Gausman, but those two hits were a triple and a home run. He's posted an .876 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season compared to a .552 OPS against lefties. Gausman has allowed 14 HRs in 15 home starts this season, while giving up just 7 HRs in 16 road starts. He's strong against left-handed bats, but they will hit the occasional HR against him. We set Lowe's line at +350 to homer. Use BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS and get this price as well as up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses:  

Colson Montgomery, White Sox (+392, DraftKings)

Why not go back to Montgomery again after he cashed two days in a row for us? He has 17 HRs in 52 games when the opposing starter is a RHP. Brad Lord has given up 11 of his 14 HRs allowed to left-handed hitters, who have a strong .821 OPS against him. Lord has allowed 11 HRs in 18 games as a starter compared to just 3 in 39 games as a reliever. We set Montgomery's line at +330 to homer, and you can bet this prop at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets instantly + over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket on a $5 bet:

Michael Busch, Cubs (+575, DraftKings)

The Cardinals are going with a bullpen game against the Cubs, but assuming they roll out a few RHPs, we have value here. Busch has hit 28 of his 32 HRs this season against right-handed pitchers, with an .882 OPS against righties compared to a .662 OPS against lefties. He's also riding a hot streak with 6 HRs over his last 13 games played. We set his line at +370 to homer, and you can get this price and $150 in bonus bets if your first bet of $10 or more wins from BetMGM:

Where to bet MLB props on Sunday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Sunday: 

More MLB picks for Sunday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Angelo Magliocca, who is on an 84-62-1 roll (+1629) on MLB picks.