Free MLB home run picks, lines, odds for Aug. 7: Cal Raleigh among best bets for Thursday HR player props

There might be just four games on the Thursday MLB schedule, but there is still plenty of power to choose from with MLB home run picks. Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh leads the majors with 42 home runs this season, and he is +265 to go yard against the White Sox on Thursday afternoon. Raleigh is facing rookie starter Shane Smith, who is 3-7 with a 4.25 ERA in 19 starts this season. Smith has allowed 10 homers, so SportsLine's Inside the Lines team is backing Raleigh to extend his home run lead on Thursday. 

Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers (+400) and Athletics designated hitter Brent Rooker (+285) are among their home run picks as well. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to receive $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and get $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first wager of $5 or more, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 53.65 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after hitting four of its six HR bets on Saturday and Sunday, and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. 

Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, August 7:

• Kyle Stowers, Marlins (+400)
• Cal Raleigh, Mariners (+265)
• Brent Rooker, Athletics (+285)
• Parlay these picks for +6025 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

MLB Best Home Run Bets 8/7

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog

Kyle Stowers (Marlins) +400, BetMGM

Stowers has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last month, with a 1.207 OPS in the past 30 days—second only to Nick Kurtz. He's hit 24 of his 25 home runs against right-handed pitchers and faces Carlos Carrasco today, a righty who's struggling to miss bats. Opponents have a .962 OPS against Carrasco this season. We set Stowers' line at +290 to homer. This price is available at BetMGM, where you can also use the BetMGM promo code to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses:

Cal Raleigh (Mariners) +265, DraftKings

While Raleigh's line doesn't offer huge value, our model still sees a positive expected return. He hasn't homered in his last five games, which feels like a drought given his torrid HR pace this season. Raleigh is 1-for-2 with a double against Shane Smith, who's allowed 6 of his 10 home runs in his last five starts after giving up just 4 in his first 14. Eight of Smith's 10 HRs allowed have come against left-handed hitters, and Raleigh has 26 HRs batting from the left side. We set his line at +216 to homer. Bet this prop at DraftKings, where you can get $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and get $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first wager of $5 or more:

Brent Rooker (Athletics) +285, FanDuel

On a day with limited options, Rooker facing a left-handed pitcher stands out. While he doesn't have a ton of HRs against lefties, he owns a 1.000+ OPS against them this season and a career .874 OPS. He's also a strong candidate to hit a double (+320 value) given his 9 doubles to 5 HRs split vs. LHPs this season and nearly 1:1 career ratio. Nationals' starter Mitchell Parker has allowed 25 hits in 15.2 IP over his last three starts and struggled in the second half of last season. We set Rooker's line at +270 to homer, and you can get even more value with the latest FanDuel promo code, which offers $150 in bonus bets if your first wager of $5 or more wins:

Where to bet MLB props on Thursday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Thursday: 

More MLB picks for Thursday 

You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Bruce Marshall, who is on a 82-74-1 roll (+1439) on MLB picks.