Can the Diamondbacks make MLB playoffs? How they got back in the race after selling at the trade deadline

With just over a week remaining in the regular season, the Arizona Diamondbacks find themselves in an unlikely position. They'll enter Friday's series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies two games behind the New York Mets for the National League's final wild card spot.

The chances of the Diamondbacks snaking past the Mets and into the postseason wouldn't appear great at first blush. Arizona's schedule will conclude with series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, two clubs battling for a division crown. The Mets, conversely, have dates with both the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins to count upon. (And don't forget about the Cincinnati Reds or San Francisco Giants, both within three games of the Mets themselves.)

At the same time, these D-backs weren't supposed to be here to begin with. Remember that, over the course of a week in late July, the Diamondbacks accepted the fate thrust upon them by injuries and impending free agencies and traded away corner infielders Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor, starting pitcher Merrill Kelly, platoon outfielder Randal Grichuk, and reliever Shelby Miller. Arizona seemed likely to fall from contention over the ensuing two months.

That did not happen, however. These D-backs are instead 26-18 since the beginning of August, good for a 59% winning percentage that prorates to around 96 wins over a full season. Arizona isn't just crushing tomato cans, either. Since the middle of August alone, they've split or won series against the following teams -- all either playoff hopefuls or locks: the Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, and San Francisco Giants. 

Just how have the Diamondbacks remained in the race after their midseason sell-off? Here are three aspects worth knowing about.

1. Offensive stars have stepped up

The Diamondbacks may have traded away Suárez and Naylor, but their offense has ranked in the top five of the majors in runs scored and top 10 in wRC+ (a catch-all FanGraphs metric that adjusts for ballpark) since Aug. 1 thanks to a trio of top performers.

Over that span, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo has hit .321/.432/.545 with eight home runs and 11 stolen bases; outfielder Corbin Carroll has batted .283/.381/.548 with nine home runs and 16 stolen bases; and catcher Gabriel Moreno, in about half as many games, has hit .319/.405/.542 with four home runs and a stolen base. Anytime a team is getting that kind of production from shortstop and catcher, they stand a great chance of having an above-average offensive unit.

Those three may be the headliners here, but a few other Diamondbacks hitters deserve mention. 

Infielder Blaze Alexander, for instance, has launched seven home runs of his own and nursed an .804 OPS despite an elevated strikeout rate. Injured outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and second baseman Ketel Marte, who found himself entangled in controversy in August, both have OPS over .750 in that period as well.

2. Gallen-led rotation has excelled

One of the reasons the Diamondbacks seem justified to sell at the deadline was the state of their rotation. With perennial Cy Young Award candidate Corbin Burnes out for the year and longtime ace Zac Gallen in the midst of a terrible walk season, Arizona did not appear to have the rotation strength to realistically compete for a playoff spot. That they then traded Merrill Kelly to the Texas Rangers, albeit while holding onto Gallen, seemed to put them further in a hole.

File this under "you can't predict baseball," because the Diamondbacks have since received strong performance from their five most commonly used starters: Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Nabil Crismatt -- a journeyman right-hander added after the Phillies cut him loose in August. That group has since combined to record quality starts in 20 of their 40 outings since Aug. 1. Here's a look at their individual performances over that span:

Gallen's resurgence is particularly notable. Through his first 22 starts, he had amassed a 5.60 ERA and a 2.57 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In his most recent nine outings, he's lasted at least six innings all but once and has compiled a 2.68 ERA and a 3.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Gallen's turnaround has been accompanied by some changes to his game, including an added emphasis on his changeup and a reduction in his curveball usage. 

As of the deadline, it seemed improbable that Arizona would extend the qualifying offer to Gallen this winter. Now, it's a more reasonable question -- one that the Diamondbacks will surely ponder after what remains of their season.

3. Trade returns have been a nonfactor

Whenever a deadline seller performs so well after the fact, you might guess that they received a few players in their trades who they slotted right onto their roster to good effect. The D-backs have since used four of the players they obtained in those deals at the big-league level, but none of them have been particularly effective. Let's go player by player:

• First baseman Tyler Locklear was supposed to be a readymade replacement for Naylor. He's appeared in 31 games since the trade, but has hit just .175/.267/.262 (47 OPS+) with three home runs and an unsightly 37.1% strikeout rate (swing-and-miss issues were the biggest cause for concern in his game). Locklear has since been placed on the injured list on account of elbow inflammation. 
• Lefty Brandyn Garcia has posted a 5.63 ERA, albeit with three times as many strikeouts as walks in his first eight appearances. He's pieced together four consecutive scoreless outings as of this writing.
• Righty Juan Burgos surrendered seven runs (six earned) on 10 hits and six walks in 6 ⅔ innings of work. He was on the active roster heading into September, but he's since been demoted.
• Right-hander Andrew Hoffmann has averaged less than an inning per outing in his seven relief appearances. He's surrendered six runs (all earned) on six hits and five walks. Hoffman hasn't pitched at the big-league level since mid-August.

You needn't read much into this collection of small samples (or attempt to pass judgement on the quality of returns the D-backs received for that matter) to acknowledge the above four players have made minimal contributions to their recent winning efforts.

The D-backs, it can be written, are winning because of the players they had in place all along. In some ways, that's heartening. In other ways, though, it could leave people wondering what could have been if the Baseball Gods had smiled, not smited these D-backs in the early going.