Blue Jays finally turn promise into production as Toronto heads to first ALCS since 2016

The Blue Jays have turned a season that began with skepticism into one that's made believers. For much of the past five years, Toronto has shown more promise than product. The club's had elite talent but could never sustain consistent winning. Now, they're a favorite to win the American League Championship Series over the Mariners. The product is finally living up to the promise.

The team, of course, is led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., one of the most dynamic offensive players on the planet. But, more importantly, this is a club that is spearheaded by one unified formula: put the ball in play. 

The Blue Jays posted an 80.6% contact rate this season, the highest in the majors. Their 9.4 percent whiff rate was the second lowest in baseball. They also thrived with runners in scoring position, hitting .292 -- the best mark in the league. That approach carried into the postseason, where they went 15-for-37 in the ALDS against the Yankees.

"We make a lot of contact," Blue Jays manager John Schneider said after his team's series win against the Yankees last week. "That's been evident throughout the year. Guys have a plan when they go up there, and we try to utilize everyone's skill set to the best that we can." 

They've turned players like Ernie Clement into unlikely postseason stars, as he went 9-for-14 in the series against New York, one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. They've also helped revive veterans like George Springer, who delivered his best season since 2019 at age 35. And they've done it all without Bo Bichette, still sidelined with a knee injury suffered late in the season.

They'll have to do it without Bichette again in the ALCS, as he was left off the roster, a daunting challenge given Seattle's deep and dominant pitching staff.

Defensively, Toronto is among the best teams in the majors. They ranked fourth in defensive runs saved, showing stellar play across the diamond. Outfielder Daulton Varsho has established himself as a Gold Glove-caliber defender, covering gaps with ease on balls that would likely drop for doubles if it weren't him -- or players like Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs or Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox -- patrolling the grass.

But what does this all mean against this Seattle team? 

Notice we haven't mentioned pitching, and that's because it leaves a lot to be desired. It could be what ultimately does the Blue Jays in this series. For all their offensive and defensive strengths, Toronto simply doesn't have much pitching depth. Even in their four-game win over the Yankees, the staff allowed a combined 14 runs in Games 2 and 3. The team enters the series without a true front-line starter. Max Scherzer, added to the roster for this round, is well past his prime, and Chris Bassitt has been dealing with a lower back issue that's kept him out since late September. Even when healthy, Bassitt isn't a true No. 1. Neither are Kevin Gausman or Shane Bieber, which leaves Toronto without a clear ace to anchor its rotation. Could that be Trey Yesavage, the rookie who made just three major-league starts before his playoff debut? Maybe. He dominated the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS, striking out 11 in 5 ⅓ no-hit innings, but it's hard to put such high expectations on a guy this early in his career.

If they want to win this series they will have to outslug the Mariners, who are also known for their power. The team's offense is led by Cal Raleigh, who launched 60, and Eugenio Suarez, who compiled 49 homers on the year. Furthermore, Seattle features one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball, led by Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo. Although Woo missed the ALDS due to right pectoral inflammation, he too was added to the roster for this series. The Mariners are optimistic that he will be ready by the middle part of the series. 

"But I think kind of how Seattle is playing now, yeah, way different from the last time we saw them for sure," Schneider said. "Whether it's how the bullpen is used, some guys they've added offensively, some guys that have stepped up offensively. They're a really good team. They're a good team for a lot of different reasons.

"They're a team we've kind of been looking at for a while hoping we'd be in the position that we are and kind of thinking it's a pretty good likelihood that they're going to be here, too."

The Blue Jays are a good team, too, finally reaching their peak.