Fantasy Football rankings: Post-draft value risers like Marvin Harrison Jr. outshine fallers like Chris Godwin
Here's whose values rose or fell after the draft
By
Dave Richard
•
11 min read
If you have a good grip on the values of all the pertinent Fantasy Football players you'll consider drafting, you'll be way ahead of the rest of your league on Draft Day. Fantasy values change all the time, be it because of a player's opportunities going up or down or a team's offensive success rate being great or poor.
And there's no question that the draft changed player's outlooks.
Perhaps no one's changed more than Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars went from potentially picking a defensive tackle or a running back at the No. 5 pick to trading up to the second overall choice and taking the top athlete in the class in receiver Travis Hunter. Lawrence will throw to him and Brian Thomas Jr., the Jaguars run game added depth but doesn't have anyone to hoard touches, and the defense is suspect. It should mean a lot of throwing for Lawrence, and the majority of his throws will go to Hunter and Thomas.
You better believe Lawrence went from a quality starter only in Superflex leagues to a late-round speculative player who could finish as a top-10 Fantasy QB. He could follow in the same footsteps Sam Darnold walked in last year, except Darnold had a good defense to work alongside.
Who else's values changed so much that they rose in our rankings following the draft? We've got names ... and we've got players whose values fell, too.
Risers
What happened? The Bears spent their first two draft picks on pass-catchers -- tight end Colston Loveland and receiver Luther Burden. Then head coach Ben Johnson compared Loveland to Sam LaPorta and referred to Burden as a stud with "big things in his future."
What could happen next: Both Loveland and Burden figure to be easy short-area targets for Williams to get the ball out quick to and contribute on splash plays. It points to the Bears emphasizing improvements in Williams' efficiency while still trying to take advantage of his big arm. Tack on a restocked offensive line and Williams' stats could take off.
Fantasy value: Consensus top-13 quarterback in our rankings; I have Williams as QB8.
What happened? The Bengals did not add any serious threats to Brown's workload. Tahj Brooks was a Day 3 pick who had some impressive flashes on film, but otherwise the Bengals will trust on old veterans Zack Moss and Samaje Perine to help Brown shoulder the team's run game.
What could happen next: From Week 9 through Week 17 last year, Brown played at least 80 percent of the snaps each week, averaged 23.6 touches per game and scored 20.6 PPR points per game. He proved he could be the Bengals' main running back. Hopefully he keeps a role like that in 2025.
Fantasy value: Consensus top-10 running back in our rankings; I have Brown as RB10. His Round 2 ADP isn't close to what his ceiling suggests either, making him a pretty good value.
What happened? Arizona spent every draft pick on defense or offensive line. Not only did they not draft a running back, they didn't even bother signing one as an undrafted free agent after the draft. That means Conner easily tops the depth chart with second-year back Trey Benson and passing-down specialist Emari Demercado the only serious threats to his playing time.
What could happen next: As long as Conner stays healthy, he should remain an asset for the Cardinals and for Fantasy managers. He averaged 15.9 PPR points per game last year with at least 14 PPR points in 11 of 16 games.
Fantasy value: Consensus top-21 running back in our rankings; I have Conner as RB21, which is nowhere near his ceiling. He's arguably the best No. 2 RB value you could take on Draft Day.
What happened? The Cowboys didn't add a flashy young receiver, didn't upgrade its defense and didn't make a splash at running back. Instead, they fortified their offensive line in Round 1, added a raw but talented pass rusher in Round 2 and picked up an injured cornerback who does have potential in Round 3.
What could happen next: With a defense that appears to be on the downswing and an offense void of multiple playmakers, the stage is set for Lamb to be a double-digit target hog on a weekly basis, much like he was in 2023 when he averaged 12.6 targets per game in 11 post-bye matchups. Heck, he averaged 10.1 targets per game last year.
Fantasy value: Consensus top-3 wide receiver in our rankings; I have Lamb as WR3. He's worth an early to middle first-round pick in full PPR.
What happened? Arizona focused on defense in the draft, keeping the primaries in their offense the same. At no point this offseason have the Cardinals added anyone who would seriously threaten Harrison's role. In fact, Harrison himself has put on muscle and seems to have the backing of his coaching staff going into Year 2.
What could happen next: A breakout for the ages is on the table, though we'd be happy with an improvement in efficiency with an uptick in targets. Harrison averaged 6.8 targets per game but saw his production truly spike in the eight games he saw at least seven targets (15.6 PPR points per game). He needs volume and signs point to him getting it.
Fantasy value: Consensus top-24 wide receiver in our rankings; I have Harrison as WR22. He will probably be a Round 4 pick.
What happened? By trading out of the No. 2 overall pick, the Browns gave up their chance to add Travis Hunter to their receiving corps. That kept Jeudy on the path to lead Cleveland in targets this season, perhaps by a wide margin. He averaged 8.5 targets per game last season and scored 18.5 PPR points per game once Deshaun Watson left the field in Week 8.
What could happen next: The Browns bolstered their run game in the draft, but unless Quinshon Judkins plays like Nick Chubb, this team will have to pass a good amount. They're fully expected to start the year with Joe Flacco at quarterback, and he's been good for No. 1 receivers over the past few years. Jeudy should be in his sights a lot.
Fantasy value: Consensus top-25 wide receiver in our rankings; I have Jeudy as WR23, Heath Cummings has him as WR14!
Risers ... for now
C.J. Stroud: It'll take a lot for Fantasy managers to trust Stroud after his gross second season but there's no denying all the moves Houston made to bolster its pass game both short-term and long-term.
D'Andre Swift & Roschon Johnson: If the Bears hold steady at running back, both will have appeal -- Swift with a mid-round pick and Johnson with a late-round value.
Mason Taylor: The Jets rookie tight end is much more of a receiver than blocker and could compete to be second on the team in targets if the Jets don't add more hands.
Jake Ferguson: Once Prescott's favorite red-zone weapon, Ferguson is poised to once again be a factor in an offense that didn't add much receiving help and could be in high-scoring games.
Fallers
What happened? For all their O-line woes last year, the Niners spent one measly draft pick on the front five and added a veteran to potentially be their swing tackle. Their only addition at receiver was fourth-rounder Jordan Watkins, who figures to be Ricky Pearsall's understudy.
What could happen next: Purdy's going to have to make it work with Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, Demarcus Robinson, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. He'll eventually get Brandon Aiyuk too but he's coming off a bad knee injury. Aside from Kittle and McCaffrey, none of these guys are sure things to boost Purdy's numbers, though Pearsall and Jennings have shown flashes. And who knows how bold the offensive line will be.
Fantasy value: Consensus top-15 quarterback in our rankings; I have Purdy at QB15, Heath Cummings has him as QB8. He'll be a late-round pick in one-QB leagues either way.
What happened? The Steelers drafted Kaleb Johnson, a physical no-nonsense runner. In two press conferences each, coach Mike Tomlin described him as a "high-volume" back twice, and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith referred to him as an "explosive" player nine times. Smith also said the tandem running back usage "will be different" this year.
What could happen next: Smith did praise Warren for his pass-blocking skills and his role in "critical possession downs," which sounds more like third downs. Warren's not going away, but if the Steelers didn't give him a chance to overtake Najee Harris when Harris was inefficient, then they're not going to do it if Johnson is more explosive than Harris.
Fantasy value: Consensus top-34 running back in our rankings; I have Warren at RB31. He'll be a middle- to late-round pick with a PPR floor around 10 Fantasy points per game.
What happened? After signing a one-year deal with the Chargers, Harris watched as his new team took Omarion Hampton with its first-round pick.
What could happen next: Harris will get work in L.A.; this coaching staff tried to use two running backs every week in 2024. But after how this coaching staff operated last year, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them put more work in Hampton's lap after a couple of weeks if it's clear Harris just isn't as explosive.
Fantasy value: Consensus top-36 running back in our rankings; I have Harris at RB33. Zero RB drafters might take him in that Round 8-9 range.
What happened? The Jaguars traded up from No. 5 to No. 2, dealing off next year's first-round pick in the process, to get wideout Travis Hunter. It puts into question just how big of a target share Thomas will have this year compared to last year.
What could happen next: We're hoping the Jaguars funnel targets to Thomas and Hunter and no one else (sorry Dyami Brown and Brenton Strange). Thomas obviously would still have major Fantasy relevance in this scenario, but he won't have the 11.7 targets per game he had in his final six games when he was effectively the only legit receiving for the Jaguars. Also, Lawrence wasn't his quarterback for most of those games, and Lawrence hasn't been as advertised as an elite downfield thrower. Hunter was a monster no matter where he caught his targets at Colorado and might be Jacksonville's best option in the slot, which has routinely been the money spot in Liam Coen's offenses in college and the pros.
Fantasy value: Consensus top-8 receiver in our rankings, but not a possible top-five guy like he might have been. Not one of us have him rated as a first-round pick, and he might be a little overrated as an early second-round pick.
What happened? The Buccaneers drafted one of the most polished receivers in the class in Ohio State's Emeka Egbuka -- and he was primarily a slot receiver in college (20 of 24 touchdown catches came from the slot). Godwin's best numbers over his career have come when he's been the Buccaneers' slot receiver.
What could happen next: For starters, Godwin has to be healthy. Bucs GM Jason Licht said Godwin's been doing great with his rehab from a dislocated ankle and is on-track for Week 1. That seems good. And both Licht and coach Todd Bowles praised Egbuka for his versatility for playing inside and outside and said he'll train for those spots on the field. Obviously there will be problems if Godwin isn't ready for the season, but even if he is, Egbuka will absolutely threaten to take at least a portion of Godwin's slot snaps.
Fantasy value: Plenty to be worried about with Godwin here. Consensus top-26 wide receiver in our rankings; I have Godwin as WR25.
What happened? Las Vegas' offense figures to be reshaped in the mold of those early Seattle offenses under new coach Pete Carroll now that they have Ashton Jeanty. That means plenty of rushing, which is a shame since Las Vegas was third in pass rate in 2024.
What could happen next: The lack of volume for passing will sting all of their pass-catchers, particularly Bowers since he had 153 targets and 112 catches in 2024. Bowers wasn't really a threat to score near the goal line last year but he almost certainly won't be this year with Jeanty on the squad.
Fantasy value: Okay, Bowers didn't fall THAT much. He's a consensus top-2 tight end in our rankings. The fall will be where he stacks up overall -- I would no longer consider him with a second-round pick. Round 3? Fine.
Fallers ... for now
Rhamondre Stevenson: He's still draftable, but the arrival of TreVeyon Henderson will at minimum force a close-to-even split. If Henderson shines then Stevenson could be relegated to seven touches per game. At least Stevenson profiles as the typical RB Josh McDaniels has used in his offenses.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary: Rookie Cam Skattebo will give the Giants a fierce physical element, but he can also catch and potentially emerge as a three-down back, even if he's not the fastest guy on the team.
Jerome Ford: His days as a lead back are over now that Quinshon Judkins is in Cleveland. Ford's days as a third-down back probably aren't over though, even if the Browns brain trust says they'll try to improve fellow rookie Dylan Sampson's receiving chops.
Jakobi Meyers: If Jeanty's arrival is bad for Bowers then it's certainly bad for Meyers. By the way, the Raiders would save $10 million in cap space if they traded Meyers.
Michael Pittman: After a down year where Pittman played hurt, the Colts added rookie tight end Tyler Warren to mosh and thrash his way through defenses. Pittman's role as the primary bruiser target in the Colts offense is officially in question.
Rome Odunze: The second-year breakout is officially in jeopardy after the Bears drafted tight end Colston Loveland and speedy receiver Luther Burden.
Adam Thielen and Xavier Legette: New giant Panthers receiver Tetairoa McMillan is sure to soak up targets, leaving less chances for Thielen and probably even fewer chances for Legette, who was a first-rounder just one year ago.
Christian Watson: Injured and unlikely to be ready for Week 1 (or maybe even Week 8), Watson's role as a downfield speed receiver was usurped by first-rounder Matthew Golden.
