MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
Matt Marton / USA TODAY Sports

It was almost easier when Zac Gallen was struggling. You could just write him off as broken. After all, his ERA was as high as 5.75 for the season just two starts ago, and it's not like it was some small-sample size fluke – entering Monday's start, he had a 4.88 ERA over the past calendar year, a stretch of 33 games. A lot of people were just finished with Gallen, and honestly, it was hard to blame them.

And then he had to go and muck things up by actually looking like himself for a few starts. Last week, Gallen dominated the Giants with 10 strikeouts over seven innings of one-run ball, and then he followed it up by going nearly strikeout for strikeout with himself Monday against the Padres. Facing one of the least strikeout-prone teams in baseball, Gallen struck out nine over his six innings of work, allowing just one unearned run. 

What's changed? Well, to start with, Gallen's knuckle curve, always a finicky pitch for him, has looked like its best version over these two starts. He's been burying that pitch just below the zone and opposing hitters haven't been able to lay off it; over the two starts combined, he has generated a 54.2% swing rate on the pitch, despite throwing just 15% of them in the strike zone. That's how you get 15 swinging strikes on 26 swings across the two starts. 

Of course, if that's all it took for Gallen to dominate, things might have never gone sideways for him. His swinging strike rate on his curve for the season sits at 43.1%, which is actually a career-high mark. Now, it's clear that Gallen cannot live on his knuckle curve alone. 

And that's where the rest of the arsenal has stepped up, especially the fastball – and also where our suspicions should rise. Gallen has put up a 38% Called-plus-Swinging strike rate with his four-seamer over the past two starts, as he's been filling up the strike zone to the tune of a 62% zone rate. That has led to a big increase in called strikes for Gallen without sacrificing swing and miss with the pitch, which is a big deal.

But the red flag here is that Gallen's fastball is getting absolutely crushed right now, with a 95.7 mph average exit velocity over the past two starts. And it's not just that pitch: His overall average exit velocity allowed in these two starts is 95.9 mph. 

You can get away with that with a 38% strikeout rate, as Gallen has run in these two starts. But that almost certainly isn't sustainable, and even if he regressed to his career 26% mark, there would be a lot of room for damage if he can't tamp down on the hard contact moving forward.

So, of course, it's a mixed bag, even in Gallen's best two-start stretch since April of 2023. Gallen hasn't fixed everything that went wrong for him in two starts. But it's the first real reason we've had to be optimistic about him in more than a year, and I won't discount that. If you were on the fence about hanging on to Gallen, obviously you have to after these past two starts. And hopefully, he keeps building on them and can get back to being a must-start pitcher again.

He isn't there yet. But for the first time in more than a year, you can see him getting there. Here's what else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB: 

Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets

Janson Junk, SP, Marlins (13%) – One of the most surprising developments of the season has been the burgeoning Janson Junk fan club in the comments of the Fantasy Baseball Today YouTube channel. And hey, I get it – he's down to a 3.12 ERA after another quality start Monday, and his 2.00 FIP suggests that isn't a fluke. Is it time to start taking Junk more seriously? I don't really think so. Let's start with this: He's had about as soft a landing as you could possibly ask for since joining the Marlins; the Reds are the only team he has faced in nine games that ranks higher than 17th in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching, and seven of his nine appearances have been against teams in the bottom 12 in wOBA vs. RHP. And then there's the how of Junk's success. He's filling up the strike zone to an absurd degree, having thrown 59% of his pitches in the strike zone so far. That helps explain the 2.3% walk rate, but it also helps highlight how lucky he's been when allowing contact – he had four batted balls with an expected batting average over .500 Monday, only one of which actually turned into a hit, and his expected wOBA on contact right now is a miserable .319 mark, compared to an excellent .348 actual wOBA on contact. Junk isn't entirely without skills – his fastball doesn't have great velocity (and was actually down nearly 2 mph Monday), but his high arm angle helps him throw it with 18 inches of induced vertical break, which makes it tough to barrel up. But he doesn't miss many bats with any of his pitches, and he doesn't really look like someone we should expect to limit damage on contact. So, if you want to ride the hot hand here, just know it's likely to end in damage to your ratios. But he may be able to keep getting away with it for one more start against the Orioles this weekend. 

Colt Keith, 3B, Tigers (32%) – Over the past year or so, the Tigers have become one of those teams where it seems like everything they try works out. And Keith looks like the latest example of that. After suffering through a pretty brutally disappointing rookie season that saw him hit .260 but with little power or on-base skills, Keith has taken a big step forward across the board in 2025. He went 3 for 4 with a homer, two doubles, and two runs scored Monday against the Rays, and he's now up to a .779 OPS for the season. Now, in part, that's because the Tigers have largely protected him from the toughest lefties, but it's also true that as solid as he's been, the underlying data suggests he deserves even better – his .329 wOBA trails behind his .369 expected wOBA. Keith is hitting the ball harder without sacrificing contact skills, and he's also hitting as many line drives as last season, too. His limited pulled-air skills mean Keith probably won't hit for much over-the-fence pop, but he might hit .280 moving forward and is a solid option in categories leagues, at least. 

Yu Darvish, SP, Padres (73%) – Darvish was back from his elbow injury and looked more or less like himself Monday against the Diamondbacks. His velocity was mostly back to where it was last season and he generated 12 whiffs on 63 pitches and didn't allow much hard contact. He also struggled with his command a bit and wasn't able to get out of the fourth inning, so it was hardly the kind of start that should make you need to rush out and add Darvish everywhere. But he had a 3.31 ERA and 1.07 ERA last season and looks like he can still be a pretty useful Fantasy option when healthy. 

Kevin Ginkel, RP, Diamondbacks (1%) – With Shelby Miller joining A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez on the IL with an elbow injury, the Diamondbacks are out of options. Ginkel is going to get some save chances, as he did Monday when he closed out the win over the Padres while allowing a walk. Ginkel has been awful this season, sporting a 9.00 ERA in 20 innings of work, but that's a pretty small sample size for a guy who had 2.95 ERA over 164.2 innings in the previous three seasons combined. I'm not saying Ginkel will definitely be that good, but I'm willing to give him a chance if I'm desperate for saves.