Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Royce Lewis' recent surge makes him a second half must-add player

A bad first half doesn't necessarily mean a player is fated to continue struggling. It's worth remembering back to last season, when Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez, and Jake Burger looked like some of the biggest busts in Fantasy, only to get ripping hot in the second half to salvage their seasons.

The truth of it is, though it never feels that way in the moment, a half-season isn't a particularly large sample size. Weird things can happen in a half-season's time. Guys can be playing hurt, or just struggling with a longer-than-usual slump that won't necessarily change the trajectory of their careers, even if it might change the way a lot of Fantasy players feel about them. In fact, in 2024, 16 different players saw their wOBA increase by at least 50 points from the first half to the second half, and 18 saw a decrease of at least 50 points; among 102 qualifiers, that means fully one-third saw their wOBA increase or decrease by at least 50 points after the All-Star break. 

That's not to say it should be expected that every player who struggles unexpectedly (or stars equally unexpectedly) in the first half will see their fortunes reversed. But it's certainly not unusual, and when we're talking about players with extended track records of success, betting on a turnaround, even after three months of seeming hopelessness, is probably still the right call.

We're seeing that in particularly dramatic fashion with Giants shortstop Willy Adames, who has his OPS in the month of July up to 1.144, after failing to top .675 in any of the first three months of the season. He went 4 for 5 with a homer and a pair of doubles Monday, bringing him to six in 16 July games; he had just nine in 84 games through the end of June.

We're also seeing it with Royce Lewis. At least, I sure hope we are. Lewis entered play Monday with just a .621 OPS over the past year, the first time we've ever really seen the oft-injured third baseman slump as a professional. And, in his case, the sample of success was small enough – significantly less than one-season's worth of at-bats spread across multiple years – that it was hard to know for sure just who the real Royce Lewis was. 

But I'm certainly not giving up on him, either. He went 2 for 4 with a pair of homers Sunday and then followed it up with another two-hit game Monday that included a steal, his first since 2023 – perhaps a sign that he's feeling better amid another injury-marred season. 

In this case, it's just a two-game sample of success, and Lewis had been pretty cold in July before that. But it's enough for me to say he probably needs to be rostered in all those Fantasy leagues where he was dropped in the first half, just in case we're seeing him start to figure it out. We've seen Lewis be a difference maker before, and if the Twins can get both him and Byron Buxton healthy and productive at the same time, they could be a team nobody wants to face in the second half. I'm certainly rooting for both.  

Here's what else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB: 

Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets

Kirby Yates, RP, Dodgers (24%) – Tanner Scott left Monday's game late with a forearm issue, and Dave Roberts acknowledged that his closer would "more than likely" go on the IL after having an MRI to determine the severity of the injury. The problem is, I'm not sure who Roberts is likely to settle on as his primary closer if Scott is out. Alex Vesia has been the primary setup man in the eighth inning, but Yates has a lot more experience as a closer, including serving as one of the very best in the league last season. And then there's Blake Treinen looming on the IL as a spoiler. I'll give Yates the edge for now, but it could be any one of those three leading the team in saves if Scott has to miss significant time. 

Drake Baldwin, C, Braves (45%) – The Braves are embracing their two-catcher lineup, and Monday it was Baldwin's turn in the DH spot. And he made his presence known, going 3 for 5 with a couple of doubles, a couple of runs scored, and six RBI, a career high for the rookie. Baldwin's breakout first forced the Braves to limit Sean Murphy's playing time and is now keeping Marcell Ozuna out of the lineup, and I think that's just going to be the case the rest of the way. He has a terrific approach at the plate for a rookie and plenty of power, with expected numbers that are actually even a little bit better than his surface-level numbers. Both Baldwin and Murphy may be top-12 catchers the rest of the way. 

Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers (35%) – I'd like to believe we're going to see a resurgence from Jung, who was brought back from Triple-A Monday and made his presence felt, going 2 for 2 with a homer and a walk in a win over the A's. I would just feel a lot better about declaring that if Junge hadn't hit .205/.225/.410 in eight games down at Triple-A before being recalled. In fairness, he did homer in two of his final three games, so it's possible he got sent down to work on some specific skills and showed enough to justify his promotion back. It was a good start, anyway, and Jung does have that 2023 season to point to, where he hit .266/.315/.467 and was on a 30-homer pace before a fractured wrist. Maybe he can unlock that kind of upside again in the second half. 

Brady House, 3B, Nationals (31%) – At a time when most rookies look pretty overmatched in their first taste of the majors, House is out here holding his own. He went 3 for 4 with a double and a steal Monday and is now up to a .327/.333/.500 line in the month of July. You'd like to see a better approach at the plate – he chases a lot, though he also makes a decent amount of contact, sporting just a 21.9% strikeout rate – but House is hitting the ball well, as seen by his .300 expected batting average and .326 xwOBA. House isn't a superstar, but he does enough well that I could see him continuing to be a helpful source of batting average with non-zero power and speed contributions. 

Adrian Del Castillo, C, Diamondbacks (8%) – I missed that Del Castillo was promoted this week, and that's worth getting excited about. At least in two-catcher leagues. Del Castillo has started three of four games since returning to the majors and looks like he's going to primarily serve as the strong side of a platoon at DH, which should be plenty of playing time for him to be Fantasy relevant. Del Castillo more than held his own in the majors last season, hitting .313/.368/.525 in 25 games in the majors, and he's a .296/.384/.542 hitter with 32 homers in 156 career games at Triple-A. There's real upside here, even in a catcher landscape with more enticing options to choose from than ever before.